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Bitcoin Major breakout, robust supports at 118–116K, buy-the-dip

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Technical Overview – Summary Points
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  • Momentum: "Strong Up" trend across all timeframes (1D to 15min), no significant divergence.
  • Major supports: 118,000 – 116,000 USDT, previous resistances now flipped support (4H/2H/D/W pivots). Key floor at 110,000 USDT.
  • Resistances: No immediate barrier – price currently in a blue sky zone.
  • Volume: Typical to very high on breakout; no exhaustion seen on daily/12H/6H, short-term caution on 1H/30m.
  • Multi-TF behavior: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bullish on all but 30m/15m (neutral). ISPD DIV occasional "sell" on 4H/2H, not generalized.


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Strategic Summary
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  • Global bias: Ultra-bullish. Sustained momentum and volume, structurally confirmed.
  • Opportunities: Pullback/consolidation around 118–116K = structural buy if no exhaustion or distribution signal appears.
  • Risk zones: Below 116k = strong invalidation, tight stop-loss management, monitor for unexpected macro shock or failed breakout near ATH.
  • Macro catalysts: Fed on hold, main risk events late July/early August (FOMC, US tariffs).
  • Action plan: Buy dips on pivot support, strict stop-loss below 116k, partial profit if >125k, active volatility management as July closes.


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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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  1. 1D to 12H: All trend and Risk On / Risk Off Indicator signals green. Key HTFs validated, no volume exhaustion or negative behavior catalysts.
  2. 6H to 2H: Confirmed momentum, first ISPD DIV "sell" signals on 4H/2H = signs of profit taking. Volume moderately elevated.
  3. 1H to 15min: Very high volumes on breakout (1H/30m), micro-consolidation on 15min; Risk On / Risk Off Indicator neutral, ISPD DIV neutral to localized sell.
  4. Summary: Generalized uptrend, solid support clusters, required surveillance on 4H/2H to anticipate early behavioral or volume reversal.


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Macro / Fundamental & On-chain Review
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  • Fundamentals: No immediate macro catalyst. Market stable, major influence expected early August (US tariffs, FOMC).
  • On-chain: Ongoing LT accumulation, no mass distribution, volatility compressing, ETF volumes at ATH – strong squeeze potential.
  • Key dates:

    | Date | Event | Expected impact |
    |----------|---------------------------------------------------|---------------------|
    | 29–30/07 | Fed FOMC – status quo expected | Likely neutral |
    | Early Aug| US tariffs decision | Delayed risk |
    | 14/07 | CNY GDP YoY Q2 (22:00 UTC) | Possible volatility |


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Operational Strategy – Synthesis
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  • Strongly bullish bias, stable momentum.
  • Buy opportunities mainly on retracement/support clusters (118–116K zone).
  • Main risk: break below 116K → mandatory stop loss.
  • Partial profit near new ATH (>125K), adapt ahead of late-July macro risk.
  • Active monitoring of behavioral signals (generalized ISPD DIV red) or volume climax followed by rejection.


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Risk-Reward, Management & Alerts
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  • Swing entry: Pullback to 118–116K
  • SL: <116K. Strong invalidation level.
  • Target: New ATH >125K for optimal reward/risk.
  • Alerts: Early distribution signs on 4H/2H + reaction to support post-macro news.


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Action plan summary:
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  • Maintain bullish swing bias, strict stop management.
  • Add only on support re-tests, avoid chasing upside extensions.
  • Lower position if unfavorable volume/ISPD signals generalize.
  • Adjust tactics ahead of early August macro events.

Ox_kali
patreon.com/0x_Kali
Also on:
Chart PatternsTrend AnalysisWave Analysis

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Chart PatternsTrend AnalysisWave Analysis
Ox_kali
patreon.com/0x_Kali
Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.