The move 
BTCUSDT BTCUSD BTCUSDT.P from November 2022 looks like a textbook impulse. The third wave extended perfectly to 1.618 of wave one — a classic sign of strength.
But here’s the big question: Did the impulse already end in January 2025?
If yes, we’re looking at a nearly ideal structure:
🔹 Wave 3 — extended to 1.618
🔹 Wave 5 ≈ Wave 1 (typical after an extended 3rd)
🔹 Fib zone 0.382–0.618 of wave 0–3 — perfectly hit
🔹 Sentiment — peak euphoria in January: BTC in national reserves, mass media hype
🔹 Volume spike — a sign of potential distribution at the top
📌 Possible scenarios:
1️⃣ The impulse is complete, and we’re already in a corrective phase — even if the market doesn’t realize it yet
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/xGke8M2k-The-bull-rally-to-end-in-December-2024-February-2025/
2️⃣ A terminal diagonal is forming — ATH hasn’t been printed yet, but we’re likely close
3️⃣ A 5th wave extension — still possible, but less likely given current global liquidity and macro headwinds (trade war environment)
📊 Watch the 200-dayMA:
Historically, Bitcoin tends to stay below it for about 2 months during bull cycles.
That clock is ticking — the next few weeks may reveal the market’s true direction.
📈 A strong weekly close above $95K would sharply raise the odds of a new ATH.
Until then — monitor the local structure and wait for clarity.
BTCUSDT BTCUSD BTCUSDT.P from November 2022 looks like a textbook impulse. The third wave extended perfectly to 1.618 of wave one — a classic sign of strength.But here’s the big question: Did the impulse already end in January 2025?
If yes, we’re looking at a nearly ideal structure:
🔹 Wave 3 — extended to 1.618
🔹 Wave 5 ≈ Wave 1 (typical after an extended 3rd)
🔹 Fib zone 0.382–0.618 of wave 0–3 — perfectly hit
🔹 Sentiment — peak euphoria in January: BTC in national reserves, mass media hype
🔹 Volume spike — a sign of potential distribution at the top
📌 Possible scenarios:
1️⃣ The impulse is complete, and we’re already in a corrective phase — even if the market doesn’t realize it yet
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/xGke8M2k-The-bull-rally-to-end-in-December-2024-February-2025/
2️⃣ A terminal diagonal is forming — ATH hasn’t been printed yet, but we’re likely close
3️⃣ A 5th wave extension — still possible, but less likely given current global liquidity and macro headwinds (trade war environment)
📊 Watch the 200-dayMA:
Historically, Bitcoin tends to stay below it for about 2 months during bull cycles.
That clock is ticking — the next few weeks may reveal the market’s true direction.
📈 A strong weekly close above $95K would sharply raise the odds of a new ATH.
Until then — monitor the local structure and wait for clarity.
🥷🏼 My Telegram
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🥷🏼 My Telegram
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
🇺🇸 t.me/shakatrade1_618
🇷🇺 t.me/shakatrade_ru
🍓 The best crypto exchange — Bingix! Click my referral link to activate your bonus! bingx.com/invite/D9E1B1/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.