Last weeks high: $88,775.01
Last weeks low: $81,579.54
Midpoint: $85,177.27
As Q1 2025 draws to a close, last week we saw a mirror image of the March 17th week with a swing fail pattern of the weekly high and a gradual sell=off throughout the week.
The reluctance for buyers to step into the market under the $91,000 resistance is telling me that the bulls are just not confident in current market conditions to bid into resistance. This may be because of the Geo-political factors, ongoing war, tariffs etc. Uncertainty does worry investors and so it's a valid reason.
From a TA standpoint however is a bigger worry in my opinion. Bitcoin failed to flip the 4H 200 EMA after the 8th time of trying since mid February and that is the biggest concern for me. As long as this moving average caps and reversal pattern then the trend is still bearish and should be treated as such.
$73,000 is still the target for a downward move IMO, a further -10% move from current prices. For the bulls a SFP of the weekly low could set up another bounce to weekly highs that have remained in approximately the $88,000 zone for two straight weeks. Major resistance around those levels and of course the dreaded 4H 200 EMA must be flipped too. Currently this is a tall order given how price action has been of late, sentiment is poor and altcoins are completely decimated in most cases. So I can't see the majority wanting to buy in until these criteria are met and we're trading back above $91,000.
This is still a traders environment, not a Hodler/investor.
Last weeks low: $81,579.54
Midpoint: $85,177.27
As Q1 2025 draws to a close, last week we saw a mirror image of the March 17th week with a swing fail pattern of the weekly high and a gradual sell=off throughout the week.
The reluctance for buyers to step into the market under the $91,000 resistance is telling me that the bulls are just not confident in current market conditions to bid into resistance. This may be because of the Geo-political factors, ongoing war, tariffs etc. Uncertainty does worry investors and so it's a valid reason.
From a TA standpoint however is a bigger worry in my opinion. Bitcoin failed to flip the 4H 200 EMA after the 8th time of trying since mid February and that is the biggest concern for me. As long as this moving average caps and reversal pattern then the trend is still bearish and should be treated as such.
$73,000 is still the target for a downward move IMO, a further -10% move from current prices. For the bulls a SFP of the weekly low could set up another bounce to weekly highs that have remained in approximately the $88,000 zone for two straight weeks. Major resistance around those levels and of course the dreaded 4H 200 EMA must be flipped too. Currently this is a tall order given how price action has been of late, sentiment is poor and altcoins are completely decimated in most cases. So I can't see the majority wanting to buy in until these criteria are met and we're trading back above $91,000.
This is still a traders environment, not a Hodler/investor.
Note
So far the SFP play is proceeding and price has just tagged the midpoint. Good progress so far this week however the $85,300 & $86,200 resistance levels are a major hurdle. Note
Weekly high tagged during Trumps tariff speech. SFP of the weekly low to weekly high played out yet again. However this is so far just a tag and not a reclaim, as with most news based moves volatility is high but no clear direction as yet. That will become more clear over the rest of the week.
Note
Trump doubles down on his policies and the pre market looks terrible for a second day in a row this week, should be an interesting open in 5 minutes. Note
As the week comes to an end, a very volatile but ultimately directionless week of trading, mostly dictated by the trade war going on in Tradfi. Despite this BTC holding up better than most with $81k holding well for now. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.