BTC Idea – Bearish Divergence + Key Level Watch ⚠️
Summary / Bias:
BTC has tapped 120K and is now showing early signs of weakness. A bearish divergence on the MACD Histogram (weekly) is flashing caution, while price has retraced back to the critical 112K zone. I'm leaning bearish short-term, expecting a move towards 100K, and possibly as low as 93K, if key confirmations unfold.
Technical Context:
Weekly MACD Histogram shows a clear bearish divergence, signaling potential exhaustion.
BTC rejected from 120K and has pulled back to 112K.
Price crossed below the Yearly Camarilla L#, but we need a weekly close below to confirm further downside.
112K remains the key pivot – failure to bounce strongly here could open the door for deeper retracement.
Scenarios to Watch:
🟥 Bearish Continuation (Primary Bias)
Breakdown and close below 112K
Downside targets:
TP1: 100K
TP2: 93K
🟨 Neutralizing Risk
Hold above 112K with strong bounce = neutral bias, reassess
Close back above 115K+ with strength = invalidate bearish lean
Caution & Patience:
Now is not the time for aggressive longs. Signs of exhaustion + major level retest call for defensive positioning and high-quality setups only. Let confirmation guide entries.
NFA. Risk management always.
Will update if structure shifts.
Summary / Bias:
BTC has tapped 120K and is now showing early signs of weakness. A bearish divergence on the MACD Histogram (weekly) is flashing caution, while price has retraced back to the critical 112K zone. I'm leaning bearish short-term, expecting a move towards 100K, and possibly as low as 93K, if key confirmations unfold.
Technical Context:
Weekly MACD Histogram shows a clear bearish divergence, signaling potential exhaustion.
BTC rejected from 120K and has pulled back to 112K.
Price crossed below the Yearly Camarilla L#, but we need a weekly close below to confirm further downside.
112K remains the key pivot – failure to bounce strongly here could open the door for deeper retracement.
Scenarios to Watch:
🟥 Bearish Continuation (Primary Bias)
Breakdown and close below 112K
Downside targets:
TP1: 100K
TP2: 93K
🟨 Neutralizing Risk
Hold above 112K with strong bounce = neutral bias, reassess
Close back above 115K+ with strength = invalidate bearish lean
Caution & Patience:
Now is not the time for aggressive longs. Signs of exhaustion + major level retest call for defensive positioning and high-quality setups only. Let confirmation guide entries.
NFA. Risk management always.
Will update if structure shifts.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.