**CADCHF: Overstretched, Overhyped, Overdue for a Drop 📉**
When a tired rally drags itself into resistance — overbought, overextended, and out of breath — it’s often a trapdoor waiting to open. That’s what I see on **CADCHF**. Price is pushing into a wall, in a clear downtrend, and I’m preparing to short the rejection.
🔻 **Trade Bias**: I’m bearish on CADCHF, looking to short from resistance after a technical bounce in a broader downtrend.
Here’s what’s supporting my view:
* 🇨🇭 CHF remains the king of safe havens amid global uncertainty
* 🇨🇦 CAD is vulnerable to US tariff shocks and fading oil optimism
* 🧊 The SNB has paused cuts at 0%, but inflation surprises are limiting further easing
* 🧯 Canada’s manufacturing and GDP momentum are cooling
* 🔄 Speculators are net short on CAD, suggesting underlying bearish pressure
The Canadian dollar is facing multiple headwinds — soft factory activity, a surprise GDP dip, and uncertainty around USMCA renegotiations under the Trump administration. With the threat of 35% tariffs from the US now past the August 1 deadline, the lack of resolution adds more tension than relief. Meanwhile, inflation is heating up just enough to keep the BoC from cutting again, but not enough to attract bullish flows.
On the flip side, the Swiss franc keeps flexing its safe-haven muscle. Even with a recent rate cut to 0%, its strong fiscal standing and resilience against inflation are keeping it well-bid. The CHF has been 2025’s top performer — and nothing’s changed yet to undo that status.
Price looks heavy here. I’m watching for weakness confirmation before entering, but this is where I want to strike.
**Is this the end of the CADCHF bounce — or just the pause before more pain?** Let’s talk. 👇
When a tired rally drags itself into resistance — overbought, overextended, and out of breath — it’s often a trapdoor waiting to open. That’s what I see on **CADCHF**. Price is pushing into a wall, in a clear downtrend, and I’m preparing to short the rejection.
🔻 **Trade Bias**: I’m bearish on CADCHF, looking to short from resistance after a technical bounce in a broader downtrend.
Here’s what’s supporting my view:
* 🇨🇭 CHF remains the king of safe havens amid global uncertainty
* 🇨🇦 CAD is vulnerable to US tariff shocks and fading oil optimism
* 🧊 The SNB has paused cuts at 0%, but inflation surprises are limiting further easing
* 🧯 Canada’s manufacturing and GDP momentum are cooling
* 🔄 Speculators are net short on CAD, suggesting underlying bearish pressure
The Canadian dollar is facing multiple headwinds — soft factory activity, a surprise GDP dip, and uncertainty around USMCA renegotiations under the Trump administration. With the threat of 35% tariffs from the US now past the August 1 deadline, the lack of resolution adds more tension than relief. Meanwhile, inflation is heating up just enough to keep the BoC from cutting again, but not enough to attract bullish flows.
On the flip side, the Swiss franc keeps flexing its safe-haven muscle. Even with a recent rate cut to 0%, its strong fiscal standing and resilience against inflation are keeping it well-bid. The CHF has been 2025’s top performer — and nothing’s changed yet to undo that status.
Price looks heavy here. I’m watching for weakness confirmation before entering, but this is where I want to strike.
**Is this the end of the CADCHF bounce — or just the pause before more pain?** Let’s talk. 👇
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.