idea TL;DR
• structure: HH/HL since June low (\~1.05). I’m labeling current move as wave (4) inside an ascending channel.
• plan: buy/scale in on the red box 1.30–1.20 (0.5–0.618 retrace of the June leg).
• targets: 1.62 / 1.97 / 2.13–2.43 (midline + 0.786 fib) for wave (5).
• invalidation: daily close < 1.18 (breaks HL) → next shelf 1.05 then 0.93.
details
Price rejected at \~1.55 and rolled under the orange median line. Momentum (RSI) is cooling but not oversold, so a controlled bleed into the lower channel (pink trendline) makes sense. Confluence stack in the box: fib 0.5–0.618, prior demand from early July, and channel support.
entries
1.32–1.24: starter
1.24–1.20: full size if RSI < 45 and volume tapers (no capitulation yet)
exits / targets
T1 1.62 (recent pivot + fib 0.618 of the whole drop)
T2 1.97 (measured move from wave 2→3)
T3 2.13–2.43 (channel top + 0.786 retrace of Nov dump)
Leave a moon bag in case extension blows through 2.4 toward 3.0.
risk
Cut if daily candle closes < 1.18. If 1.18 cracks fast, expect a vacuum to 1.05/0.93. BTC nukes = plan invalid fast.
notes
• keep an eye on funding/points narratives—macro sentiment can override TA.
• ladder orders, don’t chase green candles.
• not financial advice, just how I’m playing it.
• structure: HH/HL since June low (\~1.05). I’m labeling current move as wave (4) inside an ascending channel.
• plan: buy/scale in on the red box 1.30–1.20 (0.5–0.618 retrace of the June leg).
• targets: 1.62 / 1.97 / 2.13–2.43 (midline + 0.786 fib) for wave (5).
• invalidation: daily close < 1.18 (breaks HL) → next shelf 1.05 then 0.93.
details
Price rejected at \~1.55 and rolled under the orange median line. Momentum (RSI) is cooling but not oversold, so a controlled bleed into the lower channel (pink trendline) makes sense. Confluence stack in the box: fib 0.5–0.618, prior demand from early July, and channel support.
entries
1.32–1.24: starter
1.24–1.20: full size if RSI < 45 and volume tapers (no capitulation yet)
exits / targets
T1 1.62 (recent pivot + fib 0.618 of the whole drop)
T2 1.97 (measured move from wave 2→3)
T3 2.13–2.43 (channel top + 0.786 retrace of Nov dump)
Leave a moon bag in case extension blows through 2.4 toward 3.0.
risk
Cut if daily candle closes < 1.18. If 1.18 cracks fast, expect a vacuum to 1.05/0.93. BTC nukes = plan invalid fast.
notes
• keep an eye on funding/points narratives—macro sentiment can override TA.
• ladder orders, don’t chase green candles.
• not financial advice, just how I’m playing it.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.