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Russia-Ukraine Peace Agreement what could it mean to forex!
A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could send ripples through the Forex and Commodities markets. Here's how major assets might react:
📊 Key Market Shifts to Watch:
✅ Risk-On Sentiment Returns
Traders may rotate out of safe havens like USD, JPY, CHF, and Gold.
Risk currencies like AUD, NZD, and emerging market currencies could strengthen.
✅ Euro Strength Likely (EUR ↑)
Europe gains the most relief → energy prices fall, inflation cools, confidence grows.
✅ Oil & Energy Prices May Drop
Peace reduces supply fears → crude oil and gas prices could fall → impacting CAD, NOK, RUB.
🔀 Likely Forex Movements:
🔼 Pairs Likely to Rise 💡 Reason
EUR/USD Euro up on peace; USD weakens as fear fades.
AUD/JPY Aussie rises on risk appetite; Yen weakens.
EUR/JPY Similar to AUD/JPY—EUR gains, JPY loses.
NZD/JPY Risk-on favors NZD; JPY drops.
EUR/CHF Swiss Franc weakens; Euro benefits.
USD/ZAR (falls) Rand strengthens on global optimism.
🔽 Pairs Likely to Fall 💡 Reason
USD/JPY USD and JPY both weaken, but USD may drop more.
USD/CHF Same story—less demand for safe havens.
USD/RUB Ruble recovery if sanctions ease.
CAD/JPY Oil-sensitive CAD may dip slightly
🟡 What About Commodities Like Gold? (XAU/USD)
⬇️ Gold Likely to Fall
As a traditional safe-haven, Gold (XAU/USD) tends to rise during geopolitical turmoil.
Peace = lower fear = investors rotate out of Gold into riskier, yield-bearing assets.
Lower inflation expectations could also reduce demand for Gold as an inflation hedge.
🧠 Key Level Watch:
If peace is confirmed, XAU/USD could drop below key support zones, especially if USD strengthens slightly on rate differentials.
🔍 Final Thoughts:
The magnitude of these moves depends on the terms and credibility of the peace deal.
If it includes sanctions relief and long-term commitments, expect larger market reactions.
Stay alert for central bank policy shifts, especially if inflation drops.
💬 What pairs or commodities are you watching if peace becomes a reality? Drop your insights below!
📌 Follow me for more macro-FX breakdowns, commodities analysis, and trading insights.
📊 Key Market Shifts to Watch:
✅ Risk-On Sentiment Returns
Traders may rotate out of safe havens like USD, JPY, CHF, and Gold.
Risk currencies like AUD, NZD, and emerging market currencies could strengthen.
✅ Euro Strength Likely (EUR ↑)
Europe gains the most relief → energy prices fall, inflation cools, confidence grows.
✅ Oil & Energy Prices May Drop
Peace reduces supply fears → crude oil and gas prices could fall → impacting CAD, NOK, RUB.
🔀 Likely Forex Movements:
🔼 Pairs Likely to Rise 💡 Reason
EUR/USD Euro up on peace; USD weakens as fear fades.
AUD/JPY Aussie rises on risk appetite; Yen weakens.
EUR/JPY Similar to AUD/JPY—EUR gains, JPY loses.
NZD/JPY Risk-on favors NZD; JPY drops.
EUR/CHF Swiss Franc weakens; Euro benefits.
USD/ZAR (falls) Rand strengthens on global optimism.
🔽 Pairs Likely to Fall 💡 Reason
USD/JPY USD and JPY both weaken, but USD may drop more.
USD/CHF Same story—less demand for safe havens.
USD/RUB Ruble recovery if sanctions ease.
CAD/JPY Oil-sensitive CAD may dip slightly
🟡 What About Commodities Like Gold? (XAU/USD)
⬇️ Gold Likely to Fall
As a traditional safe-haven, Gold (XAU/USD) tends to rise during geopolitical turmoil.
Peace = lower fear = investors rotate out of Gold into riskier, yield-bearing assets.
Lower inflation expectations could also reduce demand for Gold as an inflation hedge.
🧠 Key Level Watch:
If peace is confirmed, XAU/USD could drop below key support zones, especially if USD strengthens slightly on rate differentials.
🔍 Final Thoughts:
The magnitude of these moves depends on the terms and credibility of the peace deal.
If it includes sanctions relief and long-term commitments, expect larger market reactions.
Stay alert for central bank policy shifts, especially if inflation drops.
💬 What pairs or commodities are you watching if peace becomes a reality? Drop your insights below!
📌 Follow me for more macro-FX breakdowns, commodities analysis, and trading insights.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔥Free Telegram Channel For Signals👇
t.me/+cJIWSM9RjvgyYzg0
t.me/+cJIWSM9RjvgyYzg0
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.