Today I want to talk to you about the latest relevant news of the week, focusing on US tariffs and the jobs data sinking the dollar and their overall impact on forex. Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, an independent trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time.
Let's get started:
1. Disappointing US jobs & new Trump tariffs
The Non-Farm Payrolls report (July) shows only 73,000 new jobs (+unemployment rates at 4.2%), with negative revisions for May-June: -258,000 jobs.
President Trump immediately signed executive orders imposing reciprocal tariffs (10–41%) on 68 countries, including Canada, Switzerland, India, and Taiwan.
The US dollar has lost ground, Treasury yields have fallen sharply, and the market is now pricing in a 90% rate cut as early as September.
FOREX Impact:
USD weak across all major crosses (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD).
Emerging currencies such as MXN, TRY, and INR could stabilize or gain against the USD.
JPY and CHF gain safe-haven appeal; USD/JPY and USD/CHF face possible reversals.
2. Return of $5 billion RBI swap, impact on Indian liquidity
RBI swap expiration of ₹43,000 cr (~$5 billion) scheduled for August 4: possible drain of liquidity from the Indian banking system.
FOREX Impact:
Potential downside pressure on the INR, volatility on USD/INR.
Monitor capital flows: USD/INR gains possible if trade roles remain balanced.
3. IMF Improves Forecasts but Beware of Tariff Risks
The IMF revised global growth for 2025 to 3.0%, but warns of persistent risks from high tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
FOREX Impact:
Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) benefit from a moderately positive tone.
USD weak, but emerging markets vulnerable if growth weakens further.
4. 🇺🇸 Fed Maintains High Rates and Delays Cuts
The FOMC left Fed rates at 4.25–4.50%, adopting a wait-and-see approach. Internal disagreements on potential anticipated cuts.
FOREX Impact:
USD gains limited in the short term.
If Powell remains wait-and-see, the dollar will tend to remain weak or stagnant.
5. 📉 Correct Treasury rise and rate cut expectations
2-year bond yields -25 bps, pricing in 65–100 bps of cuts by the end of the year. Markets are losing confidence in jobs data, and the credibility of the BLS is being questioned.
FOREX Impact:
USD under pressure, especially on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Higher-yielding currencies such as AUD and NZD may gain carry trade flows.
6. 🌏 Asia-Pacific markets nervous on US pressure and strong yen
Asian stocks mixed: Nikkei -2%, MSCI Asia +0.3%. Strong yen penalizes Japanese exports.
FOREX Impact:
JPY strengthens, USD/JPY may compress below 150.
AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are sensitive to risk-on/off flows into the JPY.
7. Rising country risk, emerging markets under stress
Experts recommend currency and sovereign hedging due to US volatility, impacting international portfolios.
Strengthening CHF, JPY, and possible weakness in less liquid thermal currencies.
Interest remains high in the USD compared to high-risk emerging currencies.
8. Key events expected: Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21–23)
Powell and other regulators expected to deliver a speech. No Fed/ECB meeting soon, increasing the importance of Jackson Hole as a catalyst.
FOREX Impact:
Potential flash volatility in the USD, EUR, and GBP following forward guidance.
If you're looking for:
✅ Precise TAKE PROFIT
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🚀 Telegram Channel: t.me/swipeuptrading
👉 MY WEBSITE: andrearussoforextrader.com
Start investing like the banks — for free.
✅ Precise TAKE PROFIT
✅ Precise STOP LOSS
✅ Real-time Trade Updates
🚀 Telegram Channel: t.me/swipeuptrading
👉 MY WEBSITE: andrearussoforextrader.com
Start investing like the banks — for free.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
If you're looking for:
✅ Precise TAKE PROFIT
✅ Precise STOP LOSS
✅ Real-time Trade Updates
🚀 Telegram Channel: t.me/swipeuptrading
👉 MY WEBSITE: andrearussoforextrader.com
Start investing like the banks — for free.
✅ Precise TAKE PROFIT
✅ Precise STOP LOSS
✅ Real-time Trade Updates
🚀 Telegram Channel: t.me/swipeuptrading
👉 MY WEBSITE: andrearussoforextrader.com
Start investing like the banks — for free.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.