Euro / U.S. Dollar
Long

EUR/USD – Calm Before the Next Big Move

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EUR/USD – Calm Before the Next Big Move

📊 EUR/USD Market Analysis
🔹 Fundamental Outlook

Monetary Policy Divergence – The euro is weighed down by slower Eurozone growth and cautious ECB signals, while the U.S. dollar remains influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve policy adjustments. Any hint of Fed easing supports the euro, while stronger U.S. economic data pressures it.

Economic Conditions – Inflation in Europe has cooled but remains above target, keeping the ECB cautious. Meanwhile, U.S. labor and growth data show mixed signals, creating short-term volatility.

Market Sentiment – Risk appetite is fragile. Investors are balancing between safe-haven demand for USD and cyclical demand for EUR, making swings more reactive to incoming economic headlines.

🔹 Technical Outlook

Trend Evolution – The pair shows a clear downward phase earlier, followed by an extended consolidation. Currently, momentum is shifting toward short-term indecision with both bullish and bearish impulses visible.

Market Behavior – Price action reveals alternating break-of-structure (BOS) and market structure shifts (MSS), showing a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This suggests that accumulation/distribution is ongoing before a clearer breakout.

Momentum Reading – Candlesticks show reduced strength compared to prior sharp declines. This weakening in volatility hints at potential buildup for a directional expansion.

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