(I) Energy Transmission Chain: Oil Price Fluctuations → Eurozone Inflation and Economy
The escalation of the Middle East situation (the Iran - Israel conflict, risks in the Strait of Hormuz) directly impacts the global energy supply chain:
If the conflict expands to block the Strait of Hormuz (transports ~20% of global crude oil 🛢️), Brent crude has already soared from recent lows—spiking over 5% on June 17 amid tensions ⛽️. This pushes up imported inflation in the Eurozone.
As a net energy - importing region 🌍, prolonged high oil prices will squeeze corporate profits, suppress consumption, and drag Eurozone economic recovery (German/French manufacturing is acutely energy - cost - sensitive 🏭). This weakens the euro’s fundamental support.
(II) Geopolitical Safe - Haven Sentiment: The "Safe - Haven Balance" Between USD & EUR
Amid Middle East tensions, the US dollar’s traditional safe - haven status competes with Eurozone havens like German bonds 📈:
If the US (e.g., the Trump administration) intervenes militarily 💥, market fears of "America mired in war" rise. USD safe - haven demand may temporarily weaken ⬇️, and the euro benefits as funds shift 🔄
⚡️⚡️⚡️ EURUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 1.14500 - 1.15000
🚀 TP 1.15500 - 1.15600
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
The escalation of the Middle East situation (the Iran - Israel conflict, risks in the Strait of Hormuz) directly impacts the global energy supply chain:
If the conflict expands to block the Strait of Hormuz (transports ~20% of global crude oil 🛢️), Brent crude has already soared from recent lows—spiking over 5% on June 17 amid tensions ⛽️. This pushes up imported inflation in the Eurozone.
As a net energy - importing region 🌍, prolonged high oil prices will squeeze corporate profits, suppress consumption, and drag Eurozone economic recovery (German/French manufacturing is acutely energy - cost - sensitive 🏭). This weakens the euro’s fundamental support.
(II) Geopolitical Safe - Haven Sentiment: The "Safe - Haven Balance" Between USD & EUR
Amid Middle East tensions, the US dollar’s traditional safe - haven status competes with Eurozone havens like German bonds 📈:
If the US (e.g., the Trump administration) intervenes militarily 💥, market fears of "America mired in war" rise. USD safe - haven demand may temporarily weaken ⬇️, and the euro benefits as funds shift 🔄
⚡️⚡️⚡️ EURUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 1.14500 - 1.15000
🚀 TP 1.15500 - 1.15600
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
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I think the Fed's interest rate decision this time may cause EURUSD to directly break through 1.1550
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.