EURUSD has shifted into bearish territory, pressured by growing divergence between a resilient US economy and a struggling Eurozone. The pair recently rejected the 1.1700 zone, forming multiple bearish structures on the 4H chart. With sticky US inflation, Trump’s renewed tariff agenda, and a dovish ECB, EUR/USD appears poised for a deeper move toward 1.1527 and possibly 1.1445 in the coming sessions. This setup is both technically and fundamentally aligned, but key event risk remains.
🔸 Technical Structure (4H)
Clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1710 zone.
Bearish pennants and wedge patterns confirm continuation lower.
Downside targets:
🔹 First: 1.1637
🔹 Second: 1.1527
🔹 Final: 1.1445
Risk zone: Above 1.1785 (invalidates short bias if broken cleanly).
🧭 Key Fundamentals
🇺🇸 Dollar Strength: Sticky inflation, stable labor market, and geopolitical risk all favor USD demand.
🇪🇺 Euro Weakness: ECB dovish tone persists amid weak data, soft PMIs, and stagnating growth.
Yield Spread: US-Euro real yield spread supports further EUR/USD downside.
Tariff Pressure: Trump’s 50% tariff plan and tensions with the EU weigh on EUR.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
A surprise dovish pivot from the Fed.
Weak US CPI or disappointing retail sales.
Major risk-on flows that trigger broad USD weakness.
New EU fiscal stimulus or Germany/France recovery surprises.
📆 Key Events Ahead
🇺🇸 US Core CPI – A hot print supports USD strength.
🇺🇸 Retail Sales & Powell testimony – Watch tone on rate cuts.
🇪🇺 German ZEW Sentiment, Eurozone HICP inflation – Weak readings would further drag EUR.
🔄 Leader or Lagger?
EUR/USD is a lagger to GBP/USD, often following UK-driven USD moves.
Acts as a leader for EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF – weakness here cascades across EUR crosses.
Tracks broad USD sentiment – dovish Fed pricing boosts EURUSD, while rate hike fears drag it.
✅ Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EUR/USD is bearish below 1.1700 as economic divergence, sticky US inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions favor the dollar. ECB policy remains soft, offering little support to the euro. Key risk lies in a dovish Fed pivot or softer US data. Watch US CPI and Powell for clues. This pair is likely to lag GBP/USD moves, but will lead EUR crosses lower if the downside momentum continues.
🔸 Technical Structure (4H)
Clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1710 zone.
Bearish pennants and wedge patterns confirm continuation lower.
Downside targets:
🔹 First: 1.1637
🔹 Second: 1.1527
🔹 Final: 1.1445
Risk zone: Above 1.1785 (invalidates short bias if broken cleanly).
🧭 Key Fundamentals
🇺🇸 Dollar Strength: Sticky inflation, stable labor market, and geopolitical risk all favor USD demand.
🇪🇺 Euro Weakness: ECB dovish tone persists amid weak data, soft PMIs, and stagnating growth.
Yield Spread: US-Euro real yield spread supports further EUR/USD downside.
Tariff Pressure: Trump’s 50% tariff plan and tensions with the EU weigh on EUR.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
A surprise dovish pivot from the Fed.
Weak US CPI or disappointing retail sales.
Major risk-on flows that trigger broad USD weakness.
New EU fiscal stimulus or Germany/France recovery surprises.
📆 Key Events Ahead
🇺🇸 US Core CPI – A hot print supports USD strength.
🇺🇸 Retail Sales & Powell testimony – Watch tone on rate cuts.
🇪🇺 German ZEW Sentiment, Eurozone HICP inflation – Weak readings would further drag EUR.
🔄 Leader or Lagger?
EUR/USD is a lagger to GBP/USD, often following UK-driven USD moves.
Acts as a leader for EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF – weakness here cascades across EUR crosses.
Tracks broad USD sentiment – dovish Fed pricing boosts EURUSD, while rate hike fears drag it.
✅ Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EUR/USD is bearish below 1.1700 as economic divergence, sticky US inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions favor the dollar. ECB policy remains soft, offering little support to the euro. Key risk lies in a dovish Fed pivot or softer US data. Watch US CPI and Powell for clues. This pair is likely to lag GBP/USD moves, but will lead EUR crosses lower if the downside momentum continues.
Trade active
Note
Trade closed manually
EURUSD +147 PIPS CLOSED! 
📊 Forex Signals | Free Daily Alerts
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📊 Forex Signals | Free Daily Alerts
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
🎯 Upgrade to VIP:
ultreosforex.com/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.