EUR/USD – May 27, 2025
📋 Plan Overview Table
Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
Conditional Buy 70% 3.0+ Active Setup
📈 Market Bias & Type
* Bias: Short-term bullish retracement within a broader corrective structure
* Type: Reversal/Continuation Hybrid
* Reversal off key H4 demand
* Continuation possibility toward D1 resistance
🔰 Confidence Level: 70%
Breakdown:
* 🔹 H1: Double bottom attempt near 1.1320 (short-term demand zone)
* 🔹 H4: Strong bullish structure since May 13th, pullback respecting bullish channel
* 🔹 D1: Price is in a consolidation range; last impulsive leg was bullish
* 🔹 Momentum: RSI divergence forming on lower timeframes (bullish hint)
📍 Entry Zones
* Primary Zone: 1.1320 – 1.1330 (current market zone, price is reacting)
* Secondary Zone: 1.1300 ± 10 pips (previous consolidation base + stop-hunt area)
❗ SL with Reasoning
* SL: 1.1270
* Reasoning: Break below recent higher low would invalidate the current bullish thesis and suggest stronger downside continuation
🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
* TP1: 1.1385 (near structure mid-range)
* TP2: 1.1435 (recent swing high – May 27)
* TP3: 1.1485 (daily resistance zone)
🧠 Management Strategy
* Initial Risk: 0.5–1%
* Scaling In: Add on confirmed H1 bullish engulfing candle with volume
* Breakeven: Move SL to BE after price closes above 1.1360 H1 structure
* Partial Close: Take 50% profit at TP1, trail remainder to TP2 and beyond
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
* ✅ Bullish H1 price action
* ⏳ Waiting for bullish engulfing or inside bar breakout
* 🔍 Monitor during London Open / NY overlap
* 🔄 Ideally with lower wick candle formation (rejection from zone)
⏳ Validity
* H1 Setup Valid for: 12–15 hours
* H4 Structure Valid for: 48–72 hours or until SL/TP hit
❌ Invalidation Conditions
* ❌ Clean break and close below 1.1280 on H1 and H4
* ❌ Failure to form bullish structure by next London session
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* 📰 USD: Mixed U.S. data, traders cautious ahead of next week's NFP
* 🏦 ECB: Hawkish undertones remain but rate cuts in Q3 on radar
* 💬 Sentiment: Euro stable to slightly bullish against major pairs; USD pressured by soft inflation expectations
📋 Final Trade Summary
This is a conditional buy setup with decent technical confluence and moderate fundamental tailwinds. Risk is well-defined, with an asymmetric reward potential if price rebounds off the H1/H4 demand region and resumes upward movement toward D1 resistance.
📋 Plan Overview Table
Type Direction Confidence R:R Status
Conditional Buy 70% 3.0+ Active Setup
📈 Market Bias & Type
* Bias: Short-term bullish retracement within a broader corrective structure
* Type: Reversal/Continuation Hybrid
* Reversal off key H4 demand
* Continuation possibility toward D1 resistance
🔰 Confidence Level: 70%
Breakdown:
* 🔹 H1: Double bottom attempt near 1.1320 (short-term demand zone)
* 🔹 H4: Strong bullish structure since May 13th, pullback respecting bullish channel
* 🔹 D1: Price is in a consolidation range; last impulsive leg was bullish
* 🔹 Momentum: RSI divergence forming on lower timeframes (bullish hint)
📍 Entry Zones
* Primary Zone: 1.1320 – 1.1330 (current market zone, price is reacting)
* Secondary Zone: 1.1300 ± 10 pips (previous consolidation base + stop-hunt area)
❗ SL with Reasoning
* SL: 1.1270
* Reasoning: Break below recent higher low would invalidate the current bullish thesis and suggest stronger downside continuation
🎯 TP1/TP2/TP3 Targets
* TP1: 1.1385 (near structure mid-range)
* TP2: 1.1435 (recent swing high – May 27)
* TP3: 1.1485 (daily resistance zone)
🧠 Management Strategy
* Initial Risk: 0.5–1%
* Scaling In: Add on confirmed H1 bullish engulfing candle with volume
* Breakeven: Move SL to BE after price closes above 1.1360 H1 structure
* Partial Close: Take 50% profit at TP1, trail remainder to TP2 and beyond
⚠️ Confirmation Checklist
* ✅ Bullish H1 price action
* ⏳ Waiting for bullish engulfing or inside bar breakout
* 🔍 Monitor during London Open / NY overlap
* 🔄 Ideally with lower wick candle formation (rejection from zone)
⏳ Validity
* H1 Setup Valid for: 12–15 hours
* H4 Structure Valid for: 48–72 hours or until SL/TP hit
❌ Invalidation Conditions
* ❌ Clean break and close below 1.1280 on H1 and H4
* ❌ Failure to form bullish structure by next London session
🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot
* 📰 USD: Mixed U.S. data, traders cautious ahead of next week's NFP
* 🏦 ECB: Hawkish undertones remain but rate cuts in Q3 on radar
* 💬 Sentiment: Euro stable to slightly bullish against major pairs; USD pressured by soft inflation expectations
📋 Final Trade Summary
This is a conditional buy setup with decent technical confluence and moderate fundamental tailwinds. Risk is well-defined, with an asymmetric reward potential if price rebounds off the H1/H4 demand region and resumes upward movement toward D1 resistance.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.