Possible downward bounce off of 199.25 for GBPJPY?

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Last week's run up of the GBPJPY was impressive and a trade that I frankly missed. Looking at the Smart Money Concepts indicator, it looks like the pair's price will move into sell range while approaching my monthly resistance trend line around 199.25. RSI seems strong at around 70 but not too overbought and the decline in ATR was most likely due to Friday's weakening volume after the London session close.

On the fundamental side, GDP numbers are being released for both countries that could also be a catalyst for a downward move if the British GDP misses or the Japanese GDP hits. One of those is more likely than the other in my opinion.

Feel free to comment your thoughts or opinions. This is an idea and does not constitute trading advice.

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