GBPUSD – Not the Time to Chase 🛑
When trends slow down, they don’t scream — they whisper. 📉 GBPUSD has been climbing, but the rhythm is shifting. Momentum is fading, price is pushing into weekly resistance, and short-term charts are starting to blink red. This isn’t dip-buying territory. It’s caution time.
🚫 I’m bearish on GBPUSD short-term — and I’m not buying dips into support.
Here’s why I’m leaning toward a short:
🔺 Overbought on higher timeframes
📍 Weekly resistance zone rejecting price
🕓 Bearish momentum shift on the 4H chart
🔻 Early signs of selling pressure in price action
📊 Fundamentals support a cautious — not bullish — stance
Let’s unpack it.
🇬🇧 UK data is mixed at best. Growth is improving, yes — but monthly GDP just slipped 📉, and while business investment has picked up, the BoE is still expected to cut. Markets are pricing in a 25bps cut in August ⏳, and GBP sentiment is already softening — net longs were slashed hard last week 📉.
🇺🇸 On the USD side, it’s not strong — but it’s stronger than the positioning implies. The job market remains resilient 💼, inflation is sticky, and the Fed has room to hold. Add to that the fact that USD positioning is extremely bearish (7:1 short bias ⚠️) — and we may be due for a short squeeze or bounce.
This isn’t about chasing momentum. It’s about fading exhaustion. Price is extended, bulls are crowded, and the macro picture is muddier than it looks on the surface.
❗️This is a patience play — not a panic sell or blind buy.
What’s your take? Still long the Pound? Or are you seeing the cracks too? Let’s talk 👇
When trends slow down, they don’t scream — they whisper. 📉 GBPUSD has been climbing, but the rhythm is shifting. Momentum is fading, price is pushing into weekly resistance, and short-term charts are starting to blink red. This isn’t dip-buying territory. It’s caution time.
🚫 I’m bearish on GBPUSD short-term — and I’m not buying dips into support.
Here’s why I’m leaning toward a short:
🔺 Overbought on higher timeframes
📍 Weekly resistance zone rejecting price
🕓 Bearish momentum shift on the 4H chart
🔻 Early signs of selling pressure in price action
📊 Fundamentals support a cautious — not bullish — stance
Let’s unpack it.
🇬🇧 UK data is mixed at best. Growth is improving, yes — but monthly GDP just slipped 📉, and while business investment has picked up, the BoE is still expected to cut. Markets are pricing in a 25bps cut in August ⏳, and GBP sentiment is already softening — net longs were slashed hard last week 📉.
🇺🇸 On the USD side, it’s not strong — but it’s stronger than the positioning implies. The job market remains resilient 💼, inflation is sticky, and the Fed has room to hold. Add to that the fact that USD positioning is extremely bearish (7:1 short bias ⚠️) — and we may be due for a short squeeze or bounce.
This isn’t about chasing momentum. It’s about fading exhaustion. Price is extended, bulls are crowded, and the macro picture is muddier than it looks on the surface.
❗️This is a patience play — not a panic sell or blind buy.
What’s your take? Still long the Pound? Or are you seeing the cracks too? Let’s talk 👇
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.