1️⃣ Why the 2020 déjà-vu is EVEN louder
2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally)
TradingView ideas still bearish 💬
> 70 % 60 % bearish
Managed-money net-longs ≈ 115 k
(-35 % from Apr) –25 % from peak
+ $741 m PM-ETF inflow, first after months Record IN-flows
G/S ratio 87 (< 90) Fell to 95
S&P keeps making highs. Ditto
2️⃣ What’s still different
Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % vs -1 % in 2020 → smaller monetary tail-wind.
Gold is already at an infl-adj. record – expect a short & sharp squeeze, not a fresh multi-year super-cycle (yet).
3️⃣ Checklist – updated
Signal Status 18 Jul Comment
———————————————————
Gold DAILY close ≥ $3 200–3 250 YES – $3 354 ✔
G/S ratio < 90 YES – 87 ✔
CFTC net-longs < 150 k YES – ~115 k ✔
ETF flows turn positive. YES – $741 m ✔
Equity stress (VIX > 25 or SPX −5 %) NOT YET – VIX 16.5 ✖
4 / 5 boxes = 99 % primed. One spark missing.
4️⃣ What could light the fuse
Date Potential trigger Why it matters
22 Jul Mega-tech Q2 earnings (NVDA/AMD) Any guidance miss → SPX wobble
30 Jul FOMC Fed holds but sounds dovish USD dump + yield spike risk
1 Aug Trump s “reciprocal” duties Imported-inflation scare → VIX pop
Early Aug. DXY crashes < 96 in < 5 days. Disorderly USD slide = funding stress
Hit ≥ 2 of: DXY < 96, VIX > 25, SPX -5 % or HY-spread +75 bp → final ✔.
Bottom line
The bear-trap thesis aged well: sentiment, positioning, ETFs, and G/S ratio have already clicked bullish.
Only equity-market stress is missing. A fast USD slide or a tariff shock right after a neutral Fed is the most likely detonator.
Stay nimble: Collect premium inside $3 250-3 400 while volatility sleeps – but keep alarms on VIX 25 and DXY 96. One red headline could still launch the squeeze.
Disclaimer: Educational opinion, not investment advice. Futures & CFD trading is risky – do your own research and consult a professional.
Note
I have no idea why the lower chart shows 2024 as it should show 2020.Note
I republished the idea with the corrected chart.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.