Bear Case for 
GDX: The Miners Are Lagging for a Reason
Despite spot gold printing fresh highs near $3,400,GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) is failing to break above its 2020 peak near $55. This divergence isn't bullish — it's a warning.
Bearish Signals:
Underperformance vs.
GOLD: GOLD is in price discovery; miners are still in consolidation. This suggests earnings or margin compression may be weighing on the sector — possibly from rising energy input costs or poor hedging decisions.
Momentum Fading: On the 4H and weekly charts,GDX is stalling below a multi-year resistance level (~$54–$55). Price action has flattened, and the volume is not supporting a breakout.
Crowded Positioning: Retail flows and gold permabull narratives are peaking, yet the miners — which should offer beta to gold upside — aren't following through. That’s a red flag for sentiment.
Macro Headwinds: If real yields bounce or the Fed delays cuts, gold may correct — andGDX will likely sell off twice as hard, possibly back to $46 or the 50-week SMA (~$42).
Watch For:
Breakdown below $50: This would invalidate the bull structure.
Rejection at $55 with increased volume: Classic bull trap setup.
Gold retracing to $3,100 or $2,800: GDX would likely test $45 or lower.
Until GDX proves otherwise with a high-volume breakout, the risk/reward tilts short. This is a liquidity-sensitive sector in a highly speculative market. Don’t get caught mining for alpha in a drying riverbed.
GDX: The Miners Are Lagging for a ReasonDespite spot gold printing fresh highs near $3,400,
GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) is failing to break above its 2020 peak near $55. This divergence isn't bullish — it's a warning.Bearish Signals:
Underperformance vs.
GOLD: GOLD is in price discovery; miners are still in consolidation. This suggests earnings or margin compression may be weighing on the sector — possibly from rising energy input costs or poor hedging decisions.Momentum Fading: On the 4H and weekly charts,
GDX is stalling below a multi-year resistance level (~$54–$55). Price action has flattened, and the volume is not supporting a breakout.Crowded Positioning: Retail flows and gold permabull narratives are peaking, yet the miners — which should offer beta to gold upside — aren't following through. That’s a red flag for sentiment.
Macro Headwinds: If real yields bounce or the Fed delays cuts, gold may correct — and
GDX will likely sell off twice as hard, possibly back to $46 or the 50-week SMA (~$42).Watch For:
Breakdown below $50: This would invalidate the bull structure.
Rejection at $55 with increased volume: Classic bull trap setup.
Gold retracing to $3,100 or $2,800: GDX would likely test $45 or lower.
Until GDX proves otherwise with a high-volume breakout, the risk/reward tilts short. This is a liquidity-sensitive sector in a highly speculative market. Don’t get caught mining for alpha in a drying riverbed.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.