📈 Chart Overview
Current Price: 5,312.75
Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend.
📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis
SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward.
SMA 50 (light blue): ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross)
SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal.
Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support.
This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal.
📈 RSI (14 Close)
Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA)
Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness.
Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating.
📈 MACD (12, 26, 9)
MACD Line: -132.13
Signal Line: -125.86
Histogram: +6.27 and rising
Interpretation:
MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving.
Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move.
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest
Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend.
🧨 Volatility Outlook
📈Macro/Fundamental Analysis
Interpretation:
Bearish Possibilities:
Bullish Possibilities:
📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule
Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week
Notable Earnings Calendar:
🔍 Summary
🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'.
🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength.
🧠 Tactics:
Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment.
Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for:
Current Price: 5,312.75
Daily Candle: Slight green candle, suggesting an attempt at recovery or a pause in the recent downtrend.
📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis
SMA 9 (thin white): ~5,309.92 – Hugging current price, curling upward.
SMA 50 (light blue): ~5,759.54 – Above current price; Below SMA 200; indicating bearish pressure. (Death Cross)
SMA 200 (thick cyan): ~5,890.90 – Above current price; Curling downward; longer-term downtrend signal.
Structure: After a heavy decline in early April, price bounced on changing tariff paradigm, but is stalled short of the Prior Swing Support.
This could be: A bear flag forming. Or. A basing pattern for a short-term reversal.
📈 RSI (14 Close)
Current: 41.48 (37.49 MA)
Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weak. A move back above 50 would be bullish. A turndown could indicate further weakness.
Recent Bounce: RSI bounced from ~21, indicating the recent lows were oversold. Currently appears to be consolidating.
📈 MACD (12, 26, 9)
MACD Line: -132.13
Signal Line: -125.86
Histogram: +6.27 and rising
Interpretation:
MACD is negative (bearish territory), but the histogram flipped positive, showing momentum may be improving.
Bullish crossover is in progress, but at the moment, weak. A potential signal for a short-term upside move.
🎯 Key Levels
Resistance: 5,300 (Prior Week Base Levels) to 5,384 (Prior Swing Support) is current price zone of interest
Support: Recent low just above 5,000 is critical — a break below should continue the downtrend.
🧨 Volatility Outlook
📈Macro/Fundamental Analysis
Interpretation:
- In high
VIX environment, with Tariff, Fiscal, and Political Uncertainty, price action will likely remain mercurial. This is likely to persist into the foreseeable future. 
DXY Dollar weakness has continued. Likely causes include: Fed Cut Expectations increasing & Decreasing Demand for US treasuries US10Y . I expect the weakening dollar to persist. All else qual, a weakening dollar is bullish for asset pricing, though, in the face of expect growth challenges, the effect is negated.- I expect US10Y sales to continue to struggle, in the face of inflation risk and rising trade tensions.
Bearish Possibilities:
- Expect continued talk about 'firing' the current fed chair. The market should react poorly to these threats if they intensify or become increasingly probable.
- Failures on trade talks with major trading partners.
Bullish Possibilities:
- Improved earnings or earnings guidance, though, I expect this is unlikely.
- Successes on trade talks and deals with major trading partners.
- Fed Rate cuts - though - i expect this is highly unlikely.
- Fed QE - thought - i expect this is highly unlikely in the short term, barring an explosion in US10Y yields.
📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule
Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week
- Thursday - 830AM - Initial Jobless Claims
- Thursday - 830AM - Durable Goods
- Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer and Inflation Expectations
Notable Earnings Calendar:
- Verizon
VZ - Tuesday - Lockhead
LMT - Tuesday - Ratheon
RTX - Tuesday - Tesla
TSLA - Tuesday - Boeing
BA - Wednesday - Google
GOOG - Thursday - Intel
INTC - Thursday - Pepsi
PEP - Thursday - Proctor and Gamble
PG - Thursday - T-Mobile
TMUS - Thursday
🔍 Summary
🔻 Trend: Bearish below 50- and 200-day SMAs and recent 'Death Cross'.
🧩 Momentum: Turned bullish, with flat to fading strength.
🧠 Tactics:
Short Term: Expect Ranging with slight bullish upside. Likely good day trading environment.
Medium Term: Dead-cat bounce or Early Reversal ...? Watch for:
- Daily Close above the local swing high's or Low's
- If we breakout higher, look for further Daily Rejection at the moving averages (especially SMA 50).
- If we breakdown lower, look for a retest of the 5000 psychological support, down to, 4832.50.
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-Will
-Will
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Give me a THUMBS UP / COMMENTS / FOLLOW ME!
-Will
-Will
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.