On the weekly Nifty chart, the 40-week EMA is around 24,188, currently just ~175 points below the market at 24,363, with a bullish imbalance (FVG) sitting just above it; the last time Nifty dipped below this EMA was in Feb–Mar 2024, only ~1.35% (~300 points) under, before reversing from a confluence of a prior swing low, unfilled bullish FVG, and 50-week EMA support. If the EMA breaks now, the strongest support lies at 23,800–23,850, which is aligned with a March–April 2025 bullish order block and swing low. Given current macro conditions—U.S. tariffs on Indian exports, six straight weeks of FII selling, weak earnings, and geopolitical trade tensions—there’s about an 80% probability Nifty will test both the nearby FVG and EMA in weekly tf, the strongest resistances from the current price are 24,750–24,800 (recent lower high and bearish FVG, a near-term liquidity zone) and 25,050–25,100 (major swing high, start of last big sell-off, and 50% retracement of the recent drop), with the latter being the critical “supply wall” that would need to break to turn the weekly trend bullish again.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.