ES Futures have decisively broken down from the ascending wedge pattern that had been forming over the past few weeks. This bearish technical breakdown suggests a potential shift in market sentiment and momentum. Given the high correlation, I'm anticipating that SPY will follow suit shortly, especially as macroeconomic pressures intensify.
The catalyst appears to be a combination of bearish fundamental developments:
Moody’s Credit Downgrade: The recent downgrade has shaken investor confidence in U.S. creditworthiness, adding fuel to the bond market selloff.
Bond Market Pressure: Yields continue to climb as investors exit fixed income, concerned about rising inflation, mounting debt, and tightening financial conditions.
Fiscal Uncertainty: The U.S. House has passed Trump’s substantial tax bill, which, while aimed at stimulating growth, raises concerns about further ballooning the national deficit. This is compounded by Trump's new spending package and a proposed debt ceiling increase, heightening fiscal instability and long-term debt fears.
We’re also seeing an uptick in volume following the last downward wave, which may indicate institutional participation and confirmation of the breakdown.
Technical Targets (If Breakdown Continues):
nPoC (Naked Point of Control): A high-probability magnet for price action due to untested liquidity.
50% Fibonacci Extension: Suggests a measured move target based on the size of the previous wave.
0.618 Fibonacci Retracement (Golden Pocket): A key confluence zone that often acts as strong support/resistance due to its high relevance in market algorithms and trader psychology.
These targets present a strong technical confluence zone and may serve as areas of interest for both short covering and potential long re-entries.
The catalyst appears to be a combination of bearish fundamental developments:
Moody’s Credit Downgrade: The recent downgrade has shaken investor confidence in U.S. creditworthiness, adding fuel to the bond market selloff.
Bond Market Pressure: Yields continue to climb as investors exit fixed income, concerned about rising inflation, mounting debt, and tightening financial conditions.
Fiscal Uncertainty: The U.S. House has passed Trump’s substantial tax bill, which, while aimed at stimulating growth, raises concerns about further ballooning the national deficit. This is compounded by Trump's new spending package and a proposed debt ceiling increase, heightening fiscal instability and long-term debt fears.
We’re also seeing an uptick in volume following the last downward wave, which may indicate institutional participation and confirmation of the breakdown.
Technical Targets (If Breakdown Continues):
nPoC (Naked Point of Control): A high-probability magnet for price action due to untested liquidity.
50% Fibonacci Extension: Suggests a measured move target based on the size of the previous wave.
0.618 Fibonacci Retracement (Golden Pocket): A key confluence zone that often acts as strong support/resistance due to its high relevance in market algorithms and trader psychology.
These targets present a strong technical confluence zone and may serve as areas of interest for both short covering and potential long re-entries.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.