Bottom in for bonds, flight to safety trade coming soon $100+
If we look at the chart of TLT, you can see that we're forming a bottoming reversal pattern.
We had a spike low down to $83 back to the middle of May and have now reclaimed the structure. I think that move marked the bottom.
I think it's very likely that bonds spike in the near future, if they can make it over the $92 resistance level, then I think price will see continuation and likely break the pattern finding the first resistance at that $101 level.
That said, I think this is the start of a larger move higher in bonds that will take us all the way up to the top resistance levels over the course of the next few years before the move is done and we start the long term trend in rates higher.
We had a spike low down to $83 back to the middle of May and have now reclaimed the structure. I think that move marked the bottom.
I think it's very likely that bonds spike in the near future, if they can make it over the $92 resistance level, then I think price will see continuation and likely break the pattern finding the first resistance at that $101 level.
That said, I think this is the start of a larger move higher in bonds that will take us all the way up to the top resistance levels over the course of the next few years before the move is done and we start the long term trend in rates higher.
Order cancelled
Price now breaking below the structure, so don't think the upside trade is worth the risk. Price would need to flip the trendline as support and move higher to see continuation to the upside.Next main level down is $80 if we see continuation lower.
Think this interpretation is more likely now:
Note
I ended up reentering yesterday, price regained the structure and is looking better on the weekly.Note
Took profits, had $87C for 8/1. Chart does look bullish, but could go either way.Note
Looking more likely we head up, but still no position.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.