🧩 Fundamental Bear Case for 20-Year Yields
1. Recession Risk and Slowing Growth
2. Federal Reserve Policy Pivot
3. Disinflationary Trends
Core inflation metrics (e.g., Core PCE, Core CPI) are in year-over-year decline.
Key disinflationary forces:
These factors reduce the need for elevated long-term yields, especially with inflation expectations anchored.
4. Supply-Demand Dynamics Favor Treasuries
Despite large Treasury issuance, global demand remains strong:
A risk-off rotation or broader de-leveraging cycle would only accelerate this demand.
🔍 Technical Summary
Closest technical targets include:
4.33% (23.6% Fib)
3.68% (38.2% Fib)
Possibly even 3.16% (50% retracement) over the next 6–12 months if macro weakness persists.
📌 Bottom Line
The combination of:
Supports a bearish outlook for 20-year yields, meaning bond prices (especially long-duration instruments like TMF or TLT) could appreciate meaningfully from here.
1. Recession Risk and Slowing Growth
- Leading economic indicators (e.g., ISM Manufacturing, Conference Board LEI) continue to suggest softening demand across key sectors.
- A recession or significant slowdown would drive capital into long-duration Treasuries, causing yields to fall as bond prices rise.
- Historically, 20-year yields fall 200–300bps from cycle peaks during recessions. With yields near 5%, there is ample downside room.
2. Federal Reserve Policy Pivot
- The Fed’s hiking cycle appears to be at or near its terminal point. Rate cuts in 2025 are increasingly priced in, especially as inflation moderates.
- If inflation continues to decelerate toward the Fed’s 2% target while growth slows, the Fed may be forced to ease sooner or more aggressively than expected.
- Long-duration bonds, including the 20Y, are highly sensitive to forward rate expectations and would benefit from a dovish pivot.
3. Disinflationary Trends
Core inflation metrics (e.g., Core PCE, Core CPI) are in year-over-year decline.
Key disinflationary forces:
- Wage pressures have eased as labor markets normalize.
- Housing costs, which lag in CPI data, are projected to fall further.
- Supply chain normalization continues post-COVID.
These factors reduce the need for elevated long-term yields, especially with inflation expectations anchored.
4. Supply-Demand Dynamics Favor Treasuries
Despite large Treasury issuance, global demand remains strong:
- Foreign buyers (e.g., Japan, EU) seek higher yields as their home rates remain low or negative.
- U.S. institutions (pensions, insurance funds) are rebalancing into risk-free long bonds amid equity volatility.
A risk-off rotation or broader de-leveraging cycle would only accelerate this demand.
🔍 Technical Summary
- Rising wedge pattern is nearing a potential breakdown — a bearish structure signaling exhaustion.
- Price is failing to reclaim the previous uptrend channel, now acting as resistance.
- A completed harmonic AB=CD pattern near recent highs suggests a mean-reverting move could be imminent.
Closest technical targets include:
4.33% (23.6% Fib)
3.68% (38.2% Fib)
Possibly even 3.16% (50% retracement) over the next 6–12 months if macro weakness persists.
📌 Bottom Line
The combination of:
- Cooling inflation
- A Fed pivot on the horizon
- Rising recession risk
- And technical exhaustion signals
Supports a bearish outlook for 20-year yields, meaning bond prices (especially long-duration instruments like TMF or TLT) could appreciate meaningfully from here.
🚀 Founder of SciQua | Strategy. Simulation. Signals.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🚀 Founder of SciQua | Strategy. Simulation. Signals.
TradingView indicators, backtesting tools, weekly contests, and live market analysis.
Join free, compete, win, and stay updated at sciqua.com
TradingView indicators, backtesting tools, weekly contests, and live market analysis.
Join free, compete, win, and stay updated at sciqua.com
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.