We got the SNB central bank rate decision later on today. Switzerland YoY inflation is in negative territory at -0.10%.
https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/inflation-cpi
The strength of the CHF is an issue for the SNB. They are scheduled to cut rate by 25 BPS (to 0.0%) with a probability of 77% but there is 23% chance of a 50 BPS cut (to -0.25%) which would be very dovish for the Swiss Franc.
If we get a surprise 50 BPS cut, I will get into USDCHF long.
The negative is pretty much priced in for the USD. The economy is holding and the Fed is expecting a surge in inflation from tariffs.
https://ibb.co/jqKhsqC
Here is the 2Y/10Y Yield differentials on USDCHF. It is pointing to the upside.
The biggest risk for the trade is of course risk off sentiment from the war in the middle east. If US gets involve, we could see some flow in the CHF but USD could see some flow too.
Pay close attention to the SNB meeting later.
https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/inflation-cpi
The strength of the CHF is an issue for the SNB. They are scheduled to cut rate by 25 BPS (to 0.0%) with a probability of 77% but there is 23% chance of a 50 BPS cut (to -0.25%) which would be very dovish for the Swiss Franc.
If we get a surprise 50 BPS cut, I will get into USDCHF long.
The negative is pretty much priced in for the USD. The economy is holding and the Fed is expecting a surge in inflation from tariffs.
https://ibb.co/jqKhsqC
Here is the 2Y/10Y Yield differentials on USDCHF. It is pointing to the upside.
The biggest risk for the trade is of course risk off sentiment from the war in the middle east. If US gets involve, we could see some flow in the CHF but USD could see some flow too.
Pay close attention to the SNB meeting later.
Order cancelled
SNB cut by 25 BPS and didn't mention the possibility of going into negative rate. No trade for me as I was only looking to short the CHF
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.