A few conflicting elements going on with USDJPY this morning. The Daily trend is down, since early March essentially however the Daily TL at the top here is from June 1st. Price moved away from this level in mid Sept and over the past week or so has traded back towards it.
We then got stuck in the 105.500 range Thur/Fri last week ending with a pop out the top, and this is where things start to conflict. From on perspective you could argue that price was in a range and we got a false break top side, espeiclaliy when viewed on the 4h TF. We then see a break of the intermediary (Yellow) TL on Vol with a back test of the 105.500 for good measure. For us though there isn't a short entry we can take here, so although there are plenty of bearish elements, we're sitting out for now if it's a short bias.
The next conflict though starts with this shorter term TL break (Orange) with a back test/support test of the lows from the 105.500 range, which would point to a possible move back towards the Daily TL. I decided to place a buy order within what would be the acceptable range for a reversion trade but crucially with the 12 Pip stop BELOW the lowest point from the 105.500 range.
We then got stuck in the 105.500 range Thur/Fri last week ending with a pop out the top, and this is where things start to conflict. From on perspective you could argue that price was in a range and we got a false break top side, espeiclaliy when viewed on the 4h TF. We then see a break of the intermediary (Yellow) TL on Vol with a back test of the 105.500 for good measure. For us though there isn't a short entry we can take here, so although there are plenty of bearish elements, we're sitting out for now if it's a short bias.
The next conflict though starts with this shorter term TL break (Orange) with a back test/support test of the lows from the 105.500 range, which would point to a possible move back towards the Daily TL. I decided to place a buy order within what would be the acceptable range for a reversion trade but crucially with the 12 Pip stop BELOW the lowest point from the 105.500 range.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.