The Singapore dollar has quietly emerged as one of the strongest performers in Asia, gaining over 7% against the US dollar this year.
While much of the FX world fixates on the yen or franc in times of uncertainty, the SGD is carving out a niche as a regional safe-haven, driven not by size or liquidity, but by credibility.
The strength in the SGD isn’t just about USD weakness. Singapore's macro fundamentals
offer a kind of quiet strength that traders tend to overlook until it becomes obvious.
This makes the SGD a compelling hedge against both regional turmoil and global dollar decay.
As more global capital looks for stable homes outside of the traditional, Singapore’s financial system and currency are set to benefit.
The idea of SGD hitting parity with the USD, once dismissed as unrealistic, is now getting serious attention.
Analysts have suggested that it could happen within five years, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes sooner!
The greenback’s structural issues of twin deficits, political gridlock, and de-dollarization headwinds are no longer theoretical.
That said, liquidity is still a constraint. The SGD makes up just 2% of global FX turnover, and the MAS actively manages the currency to avoid excessive volatility.
This means that while the long-term trend favors SGD appreciation, traders betting on a rapid sprint to parity may be left waiting.
In my view, the SGD is one of the most underappreciated macro trades in FX.
While much of the FX world fixates on the yen or franc in times of uncertainty, the SGD is carving out a niche as a regional safe-haven, driven not by size or liquidity, but by credibility.
The strength in the SGD isn’t just about USD weakness. Singapore's macro fundamentals
- budget surpluses,
- robust reserves, and
- deep-rooted investor confidence
offer a kind of quiet strength that traders tend to overlook until it becomes obvious.
This makes the SGD a compelling hedge against both regional turmoil and global dollar decay.
As more global capital looks for stable homes outside of the traditional, Singapore’s financial system and currency are set to benefit.
The idea of SGD hitting parity with the USD, once dismissed as unrealistic, is now getting serious attention.
Analysts have suggested that it could happen within five years, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes sooner!
The greenback’s structural issues of twin deficits, political gridlock, and de-dollarization headwinds are no longer theoretical.
That said, liquidity is still a constraint. The SGD makes up just 2% of global FX turnover, and the MAS actively manages the currency to avoid excessive volatility.
This means that while the long-term trend favors SGD appreciation, traders betting on a rapid sprint to parity may be left waiting.
In my view, the SGD is one of the most underappreciated macro trades in FX.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Join my mailing list jindaotai.com/joinme
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.