The Calm Before the Storm

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As of June 2, 2025, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is trading at 18.89, showing a 1.72% increase from the previous close . This uptick suggests that market participants are beginning to price in heightened uncertainty.

Technical Patterns: VIX has been forming a base around the 18–19 level. A sustained move above 20 could signal a significant breakout, potentially leading to a rapid escalation in volatility.

Market Catalysts:

Trade Tensions: Escalating trade disputes, particularly between the U.S. and China, are contributing to market jitters.

Federal Reserve Stance: The Fed maintains a cautious approach, with interest rates holding steady amid concerns over inflation and economic growth.

Upcoming Economic Data: Anticipated releases, including employment and inflation reports, could introduce additional volatility.

The current market environment, characterized by geopolitical tensions and cautious monetary policy, sets the stage for increased volatility. Traders should monitor VIX closely, as a breakout could present opportunities for strategic positioning.

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