🌍 Fundamental & Geopolitical Overview:
🔻 1. US Interest Rate Outlook (FOMC - Just Passed)
The Fed held rates unchanged at the recent meeting (July 31), but the tone was less dovish than expected.
Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach due to sticky core inflation (~2.6% YoY), which strengthened USD short term.
🔻 2. Geopolitical Tensions (Middle East & China Trade)
Ongoing naval tensions in the Red Sea are causing slight safe-haven flows.
China retaliated with tech export restrictions following recent US tariffs on rare earths and semiconductors.
✳️ This drives risk-off flows, supporting gold in the medium term.
🔻 3. US Jobs Data (NFP Due Friday, Aug 9)
Traders are cautious ahead of this. A weak jobs report may fuel a breakout toward 3,400+.
📊 Technical Analysis (15M Chart)
🔹 Key Observations:
Major breakout from falling trendline resistance (clean break on Aug 2).
Strong bullish momentum led to price rallying from ~3320 to ~3363.
Approaching a supply/imbalance zone around 3375–3380 (expect short-term reaction).
Chart shows projected retracement to 3330 zone, then potential rally continuation.
🔹 Price Levels:
Zone Type Price Range Comment
📈 Resistance 3375 – 3385 Supply/imbalance zone
📉 Support 3330 – 3340 Demand + breakout retest area
🛑 Key SL Zone Below 3315 Invalidates bullish structure
🎯 Bullish Target 3405 – 3415 Next liquidity pool / breakout target
📈 Trading Idea (Intraday + Swing Option)
🔹 Strategy: Buy the pullback
Entry Zone: 3330 – 3340 (wait for rejection wick or bullish engulfing)
Stop Loss: Below 3315 (safe under demand)
Target 1: 3375 (initial resistance)
Target 2: 3405–3415 (extension if momentum holds)
🎯 Risk:Reward: 1:2.5 to 1:3+
📉 Alternative Short-Term Sell (Counter-Scalp Only)
Entry: 3375 – 3380 (if price reaches without pullback)
SL: Above 3385
TP: 3345 – 3335
⚠️ Use only with price action confirmation (e.g. M15 bearish engulfing, RSI divergence).
🔻 1. US Interest Rate Outlook (FOMC - Just Passed)
The Fed held rates unchanged at the recent meeting (July 31), but the tone was less dovish than expected.
Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach due to sticky core inflation (~2.6% YoY), which strengthened USD short term.
🔻 2. Geopolitical Tensions (Middle East & China Trade)
Ongoing naval tensions in the Red Sea are causing slight safe-haven flows.
China retaliated with tech export restrictions following recent US tariffs on rare earths and semiconductors.
✳️ This drives risk-off flows, supporting gold in the medium term.
🔻 3. US Jobs Data (NFP Due Friday, Aug 9)
Traders are cautious ahead of this. A weak jobs report may fuel a breakout toward 3,400+.
📊 Technical Analysis (15M Chart)
🔹 Key Observations:
Major breakout from falling trendline resistance (clean break on Aug 2).
Strong bullish momentum led to price rallying from ~3320 to ~3363.
Approaching a supply/imbalance zone around 3375–3380 (expect short-term reaction).
Chart shows projected retracement to 3330 zone, then potential rally continuation.
🔹 Price Levels:
Zone Type Price Range Comment
📈 Resistance 3375 – 3385 Supply/imbalance zone
📉 Support 3330 – 3340 Demand + breakout retest area
🛑 Key SL Zone Below 3315 Invalidates bullish structure
🎯 Bullish Target 3405 – 3415 Next liquidity pool / breakout target
📈 Trading Idea (Intraday + Swing Option)
🔹 Strategy: Buy the pullback
Entry Zone: 3330 – 3340 (wait for rejection wick or bullish engulfing)
Stop Loss: Below 3315 (safe under demand)
Target 1: 3375 (initial resistance)
Target 2: 3405–3415 (extension if momentum holds)
🎯 Risk:Reward: 1:2.5 to 1:3+
📉 Alternative Short-Term Sell (Counter-Scalp Only)
Entry: 3375 – 3380 (if price reaches without pullback)
SL: Above 3385
TP: 3345 – 3335
⚠️ Use only with price action confirmation (e.g. M15 bearish engulfing, RSI divergence).
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.