Core Logic Triple Verified
Federal Divergence
Dovish Camp Expands: Bowman and Waller Clearly Support Rate Cuts; New Board Members Strengthen Expectations of a September Rate Cut
Powell Walks a Tightrope: Balancing "Stabilizing Employment" and "Inflation Risks"; Be Wary of His Use of "Learning Periods" Vague terms such as "Period" are used.
Key USD threshold: 104.5 is the dividing line between strength and weakness. A break above 105.2 or below 103.8 after the decision will determine gold's direction.
Technical bull/bear critical points.
Descending wedge breakout: 4-hour chart breaks through the 3325 resistance level, with moderate volume growth but no significant increase (validity needs to be confirmed).
Golden Ratio: 3301-3345 range, with 3338 (61.8%) as the bullish watershed.
CME open interest fluctuations: Open interest below 3300 surges by 20%, indicating strong institutional interest in bottoming out.
Market Sentiment Pendulum.
VIX-gold correlation: Recent divergence is significant, suggesting that safe-haven demand is not fully priced in.
Retail long-short ratio: 1:1.7 indicates excessive pessimism, while contrarian indicators suggest rebound potential.
▶ Pre-Federal Reserve Strategy
Bull Assault Route
Go long with a light position on a pullback to 3318-3315, stop loss at 3308, target 3338-3345
Buy on a breakout above 3345, add to your position on a pullback to 3338, stop loss at 3325, target 3370
Bear Defensive Position
Place short orders at 3338-3340, stop loss at 3347, target 3320 (quick in and out)
Unexpected break below 3308: Go short on a pullback to 3312, stop loss at 3320, target 3285
Nuclear Button Response
Dovish Surprise (direct hint of a September rate cut): Buy on a pullback to 3335 after a break below 3350, stop loss at 3320
Hawkish Impact (negating a rate cut this year): Go short on a pullback to 3310 after a break below 3300, stop loss at 3325
Key Technical Level Update
15-Minute Support Level: 3315 Resistance Level: 3330 Key Features: Lower Rising Channel
Hourly Chart Support level: 3300; Resistance level: 3345. Key characteristic: Head-and-shoulders bottom neckline.
Daily chart: Support level: 3285; Resistance level: 3370. Key characteristic: 200-day moving average pressure.
Professional Advice:
Conservatives: Close all long positions at 3315 at 3330, and follow up if the price breaks through 3345.
Algorithmic Trading: Set up grid trading between 3315 and 3345, with a 0.5% risk per trade.
Institutional Thinking: Strategize medium-term long positions between 3300 and 3285, with a stop loss at 3250 and a target at 3420.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.