Today's gold price is bound to usher in a big trend.
The latest report shows:
In the next 12 months, global central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves.
Nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves next year.
This is a good reflection of the current global financial and geopolitical environment.
In today's world full of uncertainty and chaos, gold remains a strategic asset.
Central banks around the world are paying close attention to issues such as interest rates, inflation and instability, which has prompted them to choose to increase gold reserves to avoid risks.
Fundamentals:
(1): It is expected that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will maintain interest rates unchanged (4.25%-4.50%), but attention should be paid to Powell's statement on the expectation of interest rate cuts.
If a dovish signal is released (for example, hinting at a rate cut this year), the gold price may break through 3450;
If stubborn inflation is emphasized, the gold price may fall back to 3350.
(2): Trump pushes for interest rate cuts: political interference may increase market concerns about policy uncertainty, which may be good for gold.
(3): Geopolitical risk (Middle East situation):
The market is currently slow to react to the Iran-Israel conflict, but if the situation suddenly escalates (such as military action), gold prices will rise rapidly.
Technical analysis
As shown in Figure 4h:
The trend has not yet broken, but be wary of the risk of a pullback.
Key positions:
Support level: 3365, 3350
Resistance level: 3405, 3430-3450
Today's operation strategy:
Gold price falls below $3,400, short selling strategy:
Entry level: 3393-3395
Stop loss level: 3405
Target level: 3370→3365 (falling below 3350).
Long opportunities:
Conservative strategy:
Entry level: 3360-3365
Stop loss level: 3350
Target level: 3385→3400.
Aggressive strategy:
Entry point: 3370-3380
Stop loss: 3360
Target: 3390-3400 or above
Focus: US market (cautious layout before the Fed's decision)
If the gold price stabilizes at 3405: light position to chase long, target 3430-3450, stop loss 3395.
If it falls below 3360: rebound to 3370 to short, target 3350, stop loss 3378.
Key risk warning
Increased volatility of the Fed's decision:
It is recommended to clear positions 1 hour before the announcement of the interest rate decision to avoid the market situation of "buying expectations and selling facts".
If Powell mentions "controllable inflation" or "economic slowdown", the gold price may rise sharply; if he emphasizes "maintaining high interest rates", the gold price may fall sharply.
Geopolitical emergencies: If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, the gold price may rise by $20-30, and the strategy needs to be adjusted in real time.
The latest report shows:
In the next 12 months, global central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves.
Nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves next year.
This is a good reflection of the current global financial and geopolitical environment.
In today's world full of uncertainty and chaos, gold remains a strategic asset.
Central banks around the world are paying close attention to issues such as interest rates, inflation and instability, which has prompted them to choose to increase gold reserves to avoid risks.
Fundamentals:
(1): It is expected that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will maintain interest rates unchanged (4.25%-4.50%), but attention should be paid to Powell's statement on the expectation of interest rate cuts.
If a dovish signal is released (for example, hinting at a rate cut this year), the gold price may break through 3450;
If stubborn inflation is emphasized, the gold price may fall back to 3350.
(2): Trump pushes for interest rate cuts: political interference may increase market concerns about policy uncertainty, which may be good for gold.
(3): Geopolitical risk (Middle East situation):
The market is currently slow to react to the Iran-Israel conflict, but if the situation suddenly escalates (such as military action), gold prices will rise rapidly.
Technical analysis
As shown in Figure 4h:
The trend has not yet broken, but be wary of the risk of a pullback.
Key positions:
Support level: 3365, 3350
Resistance level: 3405, 3430-3450
Today's operation strategy:
Gold price falls below $3,400, short selling strategy:
Entry level: 3393-3395
Stop loss level: 3405
Target level: 3370→3365 (falling below 3350).
Long opportunities:
Conservative strategy:
Entry level: 3360-3365
Stop loss level: 3350
Target level: 3385→3400.
Aggressive strategy:
Entry point: 3370-3380
Stop loss: 3360
Target: 3390-3400 or above
Focus: US market (cautious layout before the Fed's decision)
If the gold price stabilizes at 3405: light position to chase long, target 3430-3450, stop loss 3395.
If it falls below 3360: rebound to 3370 to short, target 3350, stop loss 3378.
Key risk warning
Increased volatility of the Fed's decision:
It is recommended to clear positions 1 hour before the announcement of the interest rate decision to avoid the market situation of "buying expectations and selling facts".
If Powell mentions "controllable inflation" or "economic slowdown", the gold price may rise sharply; if he emphasizes "maintaining high interest rates", the gold price may fall sharply.
Geopolitical emergencies: If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, the gold price may rise by $20-30, and the strategy needs to be adjusted in real time.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.