Gold is currently trading around $3,359, showing signs of exhaustion after climbing from the $3,248 low. The chart illustrates a textbook scenario of channel rejection after testing the upper boundary of the descending wedge and failing to break above the $3,365–$3,392 resistance zone. Price is now hovering just below the diagonal black trendline, indicating a potential lower high formation and setting up for another bearish wave.
📌 Key Technical Highlights
Resistance Zone: $3,365–$3,392
Bearish Scenario (Blue Arrows):
⚠️ Bearish Confirmation Criteria
✅ Invalidation / Bullish Outlook
However, today's U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) release adds a layer of volatility and potential trend disruption, making this a high-risk trading day.
📊 CPI News Impact – What to Watch
High CPI (Stronger than forecast):
- Increases expectations of further Fed tightening → strengthens USD → bearish for gold
- Likely scenario: sharp drop toward $3,337 → $3,320 → $3,293
Low CPI (Weaker than forecast):
- Signals disinflation → weakens USD → bullish for gold
- Possible breakout above $3,365 → retest of $3,392 → if broken, target $3,412 and $3,434
Neutral or as expected CPI:
- Likely leads to whipsaw — fakeout on both sides
- Caution advised — wait for candle close confirmations post-news
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
📌 Key Technical Highlights
Resistance Zone: $3,365–$3,392
- This area marks the confluence of the black long-term trendline, the top of the descending purple channel, and the previous high at $3,392.
- Price attempted a "Possible Retest" as annotated on the chart and is now starting to pull back—showing signs of bearish rejection.
Bearish Scenario (Blue Arrows):
- Multiple downward arrows show likely bearish paths if the current resistance holds.
- Key short-term targets:
- $3,337, $3,320, $3,303, Strong support at $3,293–$3,248
- Further downside may test extension levels toward $3,220–$3,200 by early August if momentum builds.
⚠️ Bearish Confirmation Criteria
- Failure to close above $3,365 (black trendline)
- Breakdown below $3,337 followed by $3,320
- Strong selling pressure supported by fundamentals (e.g. USD strength, Fed hawkish stance)
✅ Invalidation / Bullish Outlook
- A decisive breakout and close above $3,392.73 would invalidate the bearish structure.
- In that case, targets would shift toward:
- $3,412, $3,434, $3,490 (long-term trendline intersection)
However, today's U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) release adds a layer of volatility and potential trend disruption, making this a high-risk trading day.
📊 CPI News Impact – What to Watch
High CPI (Stronger than forecast):
- Increases expectations of further Fed tightening → strengthens USD → bearish for gold
- Likely scenario: sharp drop toward $3,337 → $3,320 → $3,293
Low CPI (Weaker than forecast):
- Signals disinflation → weakens USD → bullish for gold
- Possible breakout above $3,365 → retest of $3,392 → if broken, target $3,412 and $3,434
Neutral or as expected CPI:
- Likely leads to whipsaw — fakeout on both sides
- Caution advised — wait for candle close confirmations post-news
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.