🌐 Macro Outlook – Dovish Fed Tone Boosts Gold Appeal
Gold (XAUUSD) is showing renewed strength following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. While he maintained a cautious stance, he acknowledged that tariff-related inflation is easing. Markets interpreted this as a sign that rate cuts may come sooner – potentially as early as July.
📉 Lower rate expectations → Reduced holding cost for gold → Increased investor interest.
As a non-yielding safe haven, gold tends to benefit when real yields decline.
🏛️ Fed Policy Outlook – The Tone Is Evolving
🔹 Powell’s Message: Data-driven and flexible, signalling a Fed willing to respond if inflation continues to cool.
🔹 Rate Cut Timing: While September remains the base case, markets are now pricing in a potential July move. CME FedWatch shows a 70.1% chance of rates falling to 4.00–4.25% by September.
💡 This subtle repricing adds momentum to the bullish gold thesis. Current price consolidation near $3,300–$3,320 may reflect smart money positioning for an upside break.
💰 Capital Flow Dynamics – Gold vs. USD
Gold and USD both act as safe havens, but current flows suggest a rotation:
🔄 If Powell maintains a dovish tone:
▪ USD weakens as yields fall
▪ Gold sees renewed inflows amid better risk-reward and geopolitical risks
This is already evident in gold’s resilience at recent highs.
📊 Technical View (H4/M30) – Bullish Momentum Building
Gold has broken out of a falling channel and is now consolidating in a mild ascending structure. This points towards a potential continuation move.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
🟢 Buy Zones (Support):
$3,302 – $3,311 → Strong demand zone
$3,286 → Key fallback level if lower support is tested
🔴 Sell Zones (Resistance):
$3,352 – $3,371 → Major resistance, aligned with 0.5 & 0.618 Fib levels
$3,391 – $3,395 → Breakout here = bullish confirmation for longer-term targets
📈 EMA Structure (13, 34, 89, 200):
Price is trading above short-term EMAs → Positive near-term bias
Longer EMAs are converging → Potential Golden Cross setup
🎯 Trade Setups:
🟢 Swing Buy Idea:
Entry: $3,286 – $3,284
Stop Loss: $3,280
Targets: $3,290 → $3,294 → $3,298 → $3,302 → $3,306 → $3,310 → $3,315 → $3,320
🟢 Scalp Buy:
Entry: $3,302 – $3,300
SL: $3,295
TP: $3,306 → $3,310 → $3,314 → $3,318 → $3,322 → $3,326 → $3,330
🔴 Sell Zone 1:
Area: $3,353 – $3,355
SL: $3,360
TP: $3,350 → $3,346 → $3,340 → $3,335 → $3,330 → $3,320
🔴 Sell Zone 2:
Area: $3,372 – $3,374
SL: $3,378
TP: $3,370 → $3,366 → $3,362 → $3,358 → $3,354 → $3,350
⚠️ Keep an Eye On:
Fed Speeches: Any comment on inflation or rate direction could cause rapid sentiment shifts
Geopolitical Flashpoints: Ongoing or new tensions = fuel for gold upside
📌 Final Take:
Gold is showing early signs of bullish continuation ahead of the July FOMC. Dovish signals, softer inflation, and global uncertainty provide a solid backdrop. Smart entries near key zones and disciplined risk will be essential as we approach decision time.
Gold (XAUUSD) is showing renewed strength following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. While he maintained a cautious stance, he acknowledged that tariff-related inflation is easing. Markets interpreted this as a sign that rate cuts may come sooner – potentially as early as July.
📉 Lower rate expectations → Reduced holding cost for gold → Increased investor interest.
As a non-yielding safe haven, gold tends to benefit when real yields decline.
🏛️ Fed Policy Outlook – The Tone Is Evolving
🔹 Powell’s Message: Data-driven and flexible, signalling a Fed willing to respond if inflation continues to cool.
🔹 Rate Cut Timing: While September remains the base case, markets are now pricing in a potential July move. CME FedWatch shows a 70.1% chance of rates falling to 4.00–4.25% by September.
💡 This subtle repricing adds momentum to the bullish gold thesis. Current price consolidation near $3,300–$3,320 may reflect smart money positioning for an upside break.
💰 Capital Flow Dynamics – Gold vs. USD
Gold and USD both act as safe havens, but current flows suggest a rotation:
🔄 If Powell maintains a dovish tone:
▪ USD weakens as yields fall
▪ Gold sees renewed inflows amid better risk-reward and geopolitical risks
This is already evident in gold’s resilience at recent highs.
📊 Technical View (H4/M30) – Bullish Momentum Building
Gold has broken out of a falling channel and is now consolidating in a mild ascending structure. This points towards a potential continuation move.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
🟢 Buy Zones (Support):
$3,302 – $3,311 → Strong demand zone
$3,286 → Key fallback level if lower support is tested
🔴 Sell Zones (Resistance):
$3,352 – $3,371 → Major resistance, aligned with 0.5 & 0.618 Fib levels
$3,391 – $3,395 → Breakout here = bullish confirmation for longer-term targets
📈 EMA Structure (13, 34, 89, 200):
Price is trading above short-term EMAs → Positive near-term bias
Longer EMAs are converging → Potential Golden Cross setup
🎯 Trade Setups:
🟢 Swing Buy Idea:
Entry: $3,286 – $3,284
Stop Loss: $3,280
Targets: $3,290 → $3,294 → $3,298 → $3,302 → $3,306 → $3,310 → $3,315 → $3,320
🟢 Scalp Buy:
Entry: $3,302 – $3,300
SL: $3,295
TP: $3,306 → $3,310 → $3,314 → $3,318 → $3,322 → $3,326 → $3,330
🔴 Sell Zone 1:
Area: $3,353 – $3,355
SL: $3,360
TP: $3,350 → $3,346 → $3,340 → $3,335 → $3,330 → $3,320
🔴 Sell Zone 2:
Area: $3,372 – $3,374
SL: $3,378
TP: $3,370 → $3,366 → $3,362 → $3,358 → $3,354 → $3,350
⚠️ Keep an Eye On:
Fed Speeches: Any comment on inflation or rate direction could cause rapid sentiment shifts
Geopolitical Flashpoints: Ongoing or new tensions = fuel for gold upside
📌 Final Take:
Gold is showing early signs of bullish continuation ahead of the July FOMC. Dovish signals, softer inflation, and global uncertainty provide a solid backdrop. Smart entries near key zones and disciplined risk will be essential as we approach decision time.
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🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔱 Trade with Smart Money – ICT Concepts & Price Action
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.