Navigating XAU/USD: Key Levels and Insights Ahead of New York Open
Today, I analysed the gold (XAU/USD) market and outlined my strategy leading into the New York session. Here's a detailed breakdown of my thought process and the key levels I'm watching.
Top-Down Analysis: Big Picture from H4 and Daily Charts
Price Action: Gold is trading near 2,914.06, close to the upper range of recent movements. This suggests bullish momentum, but key levels require attention.
4H Order Block: A significant order block may act as a liquidity zone for potential retracement before further upside.
Liquidity Zones:
Previous Day High (PDH):2,920.50
Previous Day Low (PDL):2,890.30
From the daily chart, the structure aligns with a bullish bias, as it continues to form higher highs and higher lows.
RSI (59.07): Indicates room for price to move higher before overbought conditions.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels:
- 2,925.00 – A psychological round number and potential selling zone.
- 2,935.00 – A recent high acting as strong resistance.
Support Levels:
- 2,910.00 – Immediate support level close to the current price.
- 2,900.00 – Aligns with the top of the 4-hour range.
- 2,890.00 – Range’s lower boundary and aligns with the PDL.
Retest of the Breakout Area: A Possible Play?
Gold recently broke out of a multi-week range, and a retest could be on the cards. Here’s what I’m considering:
1. Liquidity Grab: Price often retraces to breakout zones to gather liquidity before resuming its trend.
2. Support Confirmation: A successful retest turning previous resistance into support would reinforce the bullish momentum.
Impact of ISM Services PMI Today (15:00 GMT)
The ISM Services PMI is set to be released at 15:00 GMT, with a forecast of 52.6 compared to the previous 52.8. This event could influence XAU/USD as follows If the Actual PMI Beats the Forecast
A stronger-than-expected reading may strengthen the US dollar, potentially pressuring gold lower and testing support levels like 2,900.00 or 2,890.00.
If the Actual PMI Misses the Forecast:
A weaker-than-expected reading might weaken the US dollar, providing a bullish catalyst for gold and supporting a move toward resistance levels like 2,925.00 or 2,935.00.
Volatility Spike: Expect increased market activity around the release time, which could lead to sharp price movements in either direction.
H1 Chart Analysis:
Indecision Before New York Open.
On the hourly chart, price is consolidating as we approach the New York session. The small-bodied candles suggest a balance between buyers and sellers, but this could change with increased volatility during the open.
Breakout or Fake out: Watching for a breakout above resistance or a dip toward the 4H order block for possible liquidity grabs.
Volume Spike: A surge in trading volume could validate directional moves.
Final Thoughts:
With the broader daily trend remaining bullish, I’m keeping an eye on the key levels and watching for clear confirmation signals as New York trading kicks off. Whether gold retraces to test support or continues its upward push, patience and proper risk management are key. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI could serve as a pivotal driver for market sentiment today.
Today, I analysed the gold (XAU/USD) market and outlined my strategy leading into the New York session. Here's a detailed breakdown of my thought process and the key levels I'm watching.
Top-Down Analysis: Big Picture from H4 and Daily Charts
Price Action: Gold is trading near 2,914.06, close to the upper range of recent movements. This suggests bullish momentum, but key levels require attention.
4H Order Block: A significant order block may act as a liquidity zone for potential retracement before further upside.
Liquidity Zones:
Previous Day High (PDH):2,920.50
Previous Day Low (PDL):2,890.30
From the daily chart, the structure aligns with a bullish bias, as it continues to form higher highs and higher lows.
RSI (59.07): Indicates room for price to move higher before overbought conditions.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Levels:
- 2,925.00 – A psychological round number and potential selling zone.
- 2,935.00 – A recent high acting as strong resistance.
Support Levels:
- 2,910.00 – Immediate support level close to the current price.
- 2,900.00 – Aligns with the top of the 4-hour range.
- 2,890.00 – Range’s lower boundary and aligns with the PDL.
Retest of the Breakout Area: A Possible Play?
Gold recently broke out of a multi-week range, and a retest could be on the cards. Here’s what I’m considering:
1. Liquidity Grab: Price often retraces to breakout zones to gather liquidity before resuming its trend.
2. Support Confirmation: A successful retest turning previous resistance into support would reinforce the bullish momentum.
Impact of ISM Services PMI Today (15:00 GMT)
The ISM Services PMI is set to be released at 15:00 GMT, with a forecast of 52.6 compared to the previous 52.8. This event could influence XAU/USD as follows If the Actual PMI Beats the Forecast
A stronger-than-expected reading may strengthen the US dollar, potentially pressuring gold lower and testing support levels like 2,900.00 or 2,890.00.
If the Actual PMI Misses the Forecast:
A weaker-than-expected reading might weaken the US dollar, providing a bullish catalyst for gold and supporting a move toward resistance levels like 2,925.00 or 2,935.00.
Volatility Spike: Expect increased market activity around the release time, which could lead to sharp price movements in either direction.
H1 Chart Analysis:
Indecision Before New York Open.
On the hourly chart, price is consolidating as we approach the New York session. The small-bodied candles suggest a balance between buyers and sellers, but this could change with increased volatility during the open.
Breakout or Fake out: Watching for a breakout above resistance or a dip toward the 4H order block for possible liquidity grabs.
Volume Spike: A surge in trading volume could validate directional moves.
Final Thoughts:
With the broader daily trend remaining bullish, I’m keeping an eye on the key levels and watching for clear confirmation signals as New York trading kicks off. Whether gold retraces to test support or continues its upward push, patience and proper risk management are key. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI could serve as a pivotal driver for market sentiment today.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.