This chart analyzes the historical price cycles of Gold (XAU/USD) over the past decades, focusing on the alternation between long bull runs and prolonged bear markets.
You highlighted clear phases:
1970 - 1980: 10-year Bull Run
Massive price rally, followed by a sharp correction.
1980 - 2001: 20-year Bear Market
Prolonged sideways and downward movement.
2001 - 2011: 10-year Bull Run
Strong upward trend, reaching new all-time highs.
2011 - 2016: 5-year Bear Market
Significant correction but shorter in duration.
2016 - 2025: 10-year Bull Run
Another strong bullish phase, possibly ending in May 2025.
🔮 Scenarios projected:
Scenario 1 (Blue path):
A shorter bear market (5 years) similar to 2011-2016 correction, then continuation of the long-term uptrend.
Scenario 2 (Yellow path):
Gold enters a long-term 20-year bear market, similar to what happened post-1980.
You are asking if Gold is now entering a short bear phase (Scenario 1) or will fall into a multi-decade bear market (Scenario 2).
Cyclicality of Gold:
Gold has shown repetitive cycles of 10-year bull runs followed by either short (5-year) or long (20-year) bear markets.
These cycles seem to reflect macroeconomic shifts (inflation, interest rates, global crises).
Current Cycle (2016 - 2025):
If we respect the pattern, May 2025 might mark the end of the current bull cycle, opening the door to a corrective phase.
Scenario 1 favors a soft correction:
Based on the last cycle (2011-2016), a 5-year bear market might occur.
This would keep the long-term bullish trend alive, especially if macroeconomic conditions stay inflationary or geopolitical risks remain high.
Scenario 2 warns of a harsh bear market:
If history repeats the 1980-2001 phase, gold could enter a multi-decade bear market, driven by reduced inflation fears, strong dollar cycles, or financial system stability.
Key Indicators to watch:
Real interest rates.
USD strength vs global currencies.
Demand from central banks and emerging markets.
Geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations.
You highlighted clear phases:
1970 - 1980: 10-year Bull Run
Massive price rally, followed by a sharp correction.
1980 - 2001: 20-year Bear Market
Prolonged sideways and downward movement.
2001 - 2011: 10-year Bull Run
Strong upward trend, reaching new all-time highs.
2011 - 2016: 5-year Bear Market
Significant correction but shorter in duration.
2016 - 2025: 10-year Bull Run
Another strong bullish phase, possibly ending in May 2025.
🔮 Scenarios projected:
Scenario 1 (Blue path):
A shorter bear market (5 years) similar to 2011-2016 correction, then continuation of the long-term uptrend.
Scenario 2 (Yellow path):
Gold enters a long-term 20-year bear market, similar to what happened post-1980.
You are asking if Gold is now entering a short bear phase (Scenario 1) or will fall into a multi-decade bear market (Scenario 2).
Cyclicality of Gold:
Gold has shown repetitive cycles of 10-year bull runs followed by either short (5-year) or long (20-year) bear markets.
These cycles seem to reflect macroeconomic shifts (inflation, interest rates, global crises).
Current Cycle (2016 - 2025):
If we respect the pattern, May 2025 might mark the end of the current bull cycle, opening the door to a corrective phase.
Scenario 1 favors a soft correction:
Based on the last cycle (2011-2016), a 5-year bear market might occur.
This would keep the long-term bullish trend alive, especially if macroeconomic conditions stay inflationary or geopolitical risks remain high.
Scenario 2 warns of a harsh bear market:
If history repeats the 1980-2001 phase, gold could enter a multi-decade bear market, driven by reduced inflation fears, strong dollar cycles, or financial system stability.
Key Indicators to watch:
Real interest rates.
USD strength vs global currencies.
Demand from central banks and emerging markets.
Geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.