Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD 19/8/2025

136


1. Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Price is still waiting for confirmation of a bullish reversal in the oversold zone. The current decline has lasted for 7 daily candles, which is usually sufficient for a corrective wave → suggesting the down move is in its final stage.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is preparing for a bullish reversal in the oversold zone. We can expect 4–5 bullish H4 candles ahead, indicating a possible upward move today.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is tightening in the overbought zone.
o If price makes a strong rally above 3343, the bullish move will be confirmed.
o If price continues to consolidate sideways, a downward liquidity sweep may occur before pushing higher.

2. Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe: Expectation remains that the abcde red triangle correction has been completed. The market is likely forming waves 1 and 2 (blue) of a new 5-wave bullish sequence.
• H4 timeframe: The red ABC correction has already reached its first target at 3322. Combined with reversal signals on D1 and H4, this level could mark the bottom of wave C red or wave 2 blue.
• H1 timeframe: After a strong rally yesterday, price is now in a deep pullback. This is likely wave 2 red, following the completion of wave 1 red.
o Wave 2 has retraced to the 0.782 Fibonacci level of wave 1, making it a potential ending point.
o However, since H1 momentum is still in the overbought zone, another drop is still possible.
o If price breaks below 3324, then wave C might still be in progress, with key support zones at 3322 – 3315 – 3300.

3. Trading Plan
• Current Buy position 3329–3332 is running with about 100 pips profit → this trade can be held for longer.
o TP1: 3343
o TP2: 3362
o TP3: 3381

• If not in position yet, consider a Buy Limit:
o Entry: 3333 – 3330
o SL: 3323
o TP1: 3343
o TP2: 3362
o TP3: 3381
👉 Note: If price breaks below 3324, I will update with new entry levels at lower support zones.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.