7.3 Pay attention to non-agricultural data
Yesterday, the gold market fluctuated and rose, achieving three consecutive days of gains. This was mainly due to the unexpectedly weak US ADP employment data, which was like throwing a boulder into a calm lake, stirring up ripples in the market's expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In June, the number of private jobs in the United States decreased by 33,000, far from the market's expectation of an increase of 95,000. Job losses in many industries were significant, and the uncertainty in the job market was shrouded in a dark cloud. Affected by this, the market has increased its efforts to cut interest rates by the Federal Reserve, with the possibility of a rate cut in July rising to 23%, and the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September as high as 92.5%. Now the market focus has quickly shifted to the non-agricultural employment report on Thursday (released in advance due to the Independence Day holiday).
If the number of non-agricultural jobs is less than 150,000, it may strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, and the rising expectations of a rate cut will boost international gold prices; if it is higher than 180,000, it may trigger panic among hawks.
At present, the gold price has re-standing above the long-short watershed of 3300, indicating that the current market bulls have begun to take advantage again. The overall trend is still in a wide range of fluctuations. The upper resistance is around 3360. If it effectively breaks through this position, the resistance will be adjusted to around 3495. The lower support is around 3328. If it effectively falls below this position, the support will be adjusted to around 3300.
Thank you for your attention. I hope my analysis can help you.
Yesterday, the gold market fluctuated and rose, achieving three consecutive days of gains. This was mainly due to the unexpectedly weak US ADP employment data, which was like throwing a boulder into a calm lake, stirring up ripples in the market's expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In June, the number of private jobs in the United States decreased by 33,000, far from the market's expectation of an increase of 95,000. Job losses in many industries were significant, and the uncertainty in the job market was shrouded in a dark cloud. Affected by this, the market has increased its efforts to cut interest rates by the Federal Reserve, with the possibility of a rate cut in July rising to 23%, and the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September as high as 92.5%. Now the market focus has quickly shifted to the non-agricultural employment report on Thursday (released in advance due to the Independence Day holiday).
If the number of non-agricultural jobs is less than 150,000, it may strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, and the rising expectations of a rate cut will boost international gold prices; if it is higher than 180,000, it may trigger panic among hawks.
At present, the gold price has re-standing above the long-short watershed of 3300, indicating that the current market bulls have begun to take advantage again. The overall trend is still in a wide range of fluctuations. The upper resistance is around 3360. If it effectively breaks through this position, the resistance will be adjusted to around 3495. The lower support is around 3328. If it effectively falls below this position, the support will be adjusted to around 3300.
Thank you for your attention. I hope my analysis can help you.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.