Gold (
XAUUSD) gave us a textbook early entry on Friday after testing the 21-day moving average and surging on strong volume. The breakout of a short-term trendline confirms a bullish technical shift, supported by rising relative strength over the past two weeks. Historically, 4%+ weekly gains in a major index often mark a bottom, and this week’s 4.8% surge adds conviction to the setup.
On the macro front, gold remains a prime hedge in a volatile environment:
Sticky inflation pressures persist globally.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan).
Central banks continue adding to gold reserves, reflecting a shift away from fiat exposure.
Debt and deficit concerns in the U.S. are fueling safe-haven demand.
Gold’s role as a store of value is as relevant as ever in this uncertain backdrop.
Trade Setup:
📈 Entry: 3,335 – 3,368
🛑 Stop: 3,190 – 3,233
🎯 First Target: 3,500 — we’ll look to take profits on a reversal or add to the position on a break above all-time highs.
Let’s see how the follow-through develops next week.
XAUUSD) gave us a textbook early entry on Friday after testing the 21-day moving average and surging on strong volume. The breakout of a short-term trendline confirms a bullish technical shift, supported by rising relative strength over the past two weeks. Historically, 4%+ weekly gains in a major index often mark a bottom, and this week’s 4.8% surge adds conviction to the setup.On the macro front, gold remains a prime hedge in a volatile environment:
Sticky inflation pressures persist globally.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated (Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan).
Central banks continue adding to gold reserves, reflecting a shift away from fiat exposure.
Debt and deficit concerns in the U.S. are fueling safe-haven demand.
Gold’s role as a store of value is as relevant as ever in this uncertain backdrop.
Trade Setup:
📈 Entry: 3,335 – 3,368
🛑 Stop: 3,190 – 3,233
🎯 First Target: 3,500 — we’ll look to take profits on a reversal or add to the position on a break above all-time highs.
Let’s see how the follow-through develops next week.
Trade closed: stop reached
Gold (XAUUSD) has fallen back through our trendline and triggered the stop signal. The setup didn’t hold as expected, but that’s okay—gold was our hedge in case the tariff threat escalated into a full-blown risk-off event.Over the weekend, news of the U.S. pausing tariff plans on the EU shifted the market tone. This has removed a major near-term risk catalyst, easing global trade tensions and allowing equities to rally. Stocks are responding positively, as expected, while safe havens like gold are pulling back.
The key takeaway: we want stocks to rise more than gold. Gold was an insurance policy if the tariff situation escalated. Now that it’s de-escalated, we’ll stay focused on equities while keeping an eye on macro catalysts.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.