XAUUSD – Awaiting Breakout as Market Stalls Post-Macro Storm
Gold remains in consolidation mode following a barrage of high-impact macro events — from Trump's Super Bill approval to unexpectedly strong NFP data. Despite these catalysts, price action has stalled as traders weigh conflicting signals. With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, liquidity remains thin — and that opens the door for liquidity grabs and fake breakouts.
🔍 Macro Analysis – Mixed Signals for Gold
Trump’s Super Bill: Expected to fuel fiscal deficit → long-term bearish for USD → potentially bullish for Gold.
NFP & UR Data: Surprisingly strong → Fed may delay rate cuts → bearish short-term for Gold.
U.S. Holiday: Low liquidity means markets may range, fake moves are likely. Don’t chase impulsively.
🧠 Key insight: A lack of immediate bullish follow-through doesn’t invalidate the long-term upside. Market could be quietly accumulating...
📈 SMC Technical Outlook – Key Liquidity Zones in Play
Price structure on H1 shows a clean CHoCH (Change of Character) and current price action is reacting near a reclaimed demand zone.
There are two possible paths:
Rejection near PDH / FVG area → SELL opportunity.
Deep retracement towards SSL liquidity zone → Strong BUY setup.
📊 Key Levels to Watch
🔼 Major Resistance Zones:
3366 – 3368 (Scalp)
3388 – 3390 (Swing Reversal)
3362 – 3374 – 3394 (Upper Liquidity Sweep Area)
🔽 Major Support Zones:
3312 – 3310 (Scalp BUY)
3302 – 3300 (Primary BUY Zone)
3298 – 3295 (Invalidation Below)
✅ Trade Plan for Today
🟢 Buy Setups (Priority with Trend)
Scalp BUY Zone:
📍 3312 – 3310
🛡 SL: 3307
🎯 TP: 3316 – 3325 – 3335 – 3345 – 3360
Swing BUY Zone:
📍 3302 – 3300
🛡 SL: 3298
🎯 TP: 3310 – 3320 – 3340 – 3360 – 3388
These align with SMC liquidity zones and fair value gap re-tests — a strong long bias remains valid above 3298.
🔴 Sell Setups (Only If Confirmed)
Scalp SELL Zone:
📍 3366 – 3368
🛡 SL: 3371
🎯 TP: 3358 – 3348 – 3338
High SELL Zone:
📍 3388 – 3390
🛡 SL: 3394
🎯 TP: 3382 – 3375 – 3360
Use confirmation on lower timeframes. Don’t sell blindly into trend.
🔮 Bias for the Session
🟨 Primary Bias: BUY dips into 3300–3310 zone
🟥 Alternate: Short-term SELLs only from 3366–3390 zones with price rejection
💬 What Do You Think?
Is this just a trap before the real breakout to 3400+?
Or are we heading into a liquidity sweep before deeper correction?
Gold remains in consolidation mode following a barrage of high-impact macro events — from Trump's Super Bill approval to unexpectedly strong NFP data. Despite these catalysts, price action has stalled as traders weigh conflicting signals. With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, liquidity remains thin — and that opens the door for liquidity grabs and fake breakouts.
🔍 Macro Analysis – Mixed Signals for Gold
Trump’s Super Bill: Expected to fuel fiscal deficit → long-term bearish for USD → potentially bullish for Gold.
NFP & UR Data: Surprisingly strong → Fed may delay rate cuts → bearish short-term for Gold.
U.S. Holiday: Low liquidity means markets may range, fake moves are likely. Don’t chase impulsively.
🧠 Key insight: A lack of immediate bullish follow-through doesn’t invalidate the long-term upside. Market could be quietly accumulating...
📈 SMC Technical Outlook – Key Liquidity Zones in Play
Price structure on H1 shows a clean CHoCH (Change of Character) and current price action is reacting near a reclaimed demand zone.
There are two possible paths:
Rejection near PDH / FVG area → SELL opportunity.
Deep retracement towards SSL liquidity zone → Strong BUY setup.
📊 Key Levels to Watch
🔼 Major Resistance Zones:
3366 – 3368 (Scalp)
3388 – 3390 (Swing Reversal)
3362 – 3374 – 3394 (Upper Liquidity Sweep Area)
🔽 Major Support Zones:
3312 – 3310 (Scalp BUY)
3302 – 3300 (Primary BUY Zone)
3298 – 3295 (Invalidation Below)
✅ Trade Plan for Today
🟢 Buy Setups (Priority with Trend)
Scalp BUY Zone:
📍 3312 – 3310
🛡 SL: 3307
🎯 TP: 3316 – 3325 – 3335 – 3345 – 3360
Swing BUY Zone:
📍 3302 – 3300
🛡 SL: 3298
🎯 TP: 3310 – 3320 – 3340 – 3360 – 3388
These align with SMC liquidity zones and fair value gap re-tests — a strong long bias remains valid above 3298.
🔴 Sell Setups (Only If Confirmed)
Scalp SELL Zone:
📍 3366 – 3368
🛡 SL: 3371
🎯 TP: 3358 – 3348 – 3338
High SELL Zone:
📍 3388 – 3390
🛡 SL: 3394
🎯 TP: 3382 – 3375 – 3360
Use confirmation on lower timeframes. Don’t sell blindly into trend.
🔮 Bias for the Session
🟨 Primary Bias: BUY dips into 3300–3310 zone
🟥 Alternate: Short-term SELLs only from 3366–3390 zones with price rejection
💬 What Do You Think?
Is this just a trap before the real breakout to 3400+?
Or are we heading into a liquidity sweep before deeper correction?
🔱 Trade with Smart Money – ICT Concepts & Price Action
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔱 Trade with Smart Money – ICT Concepts & Price Action
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
🔱 Latest Daily Plan – Updated with 4–6 Free Gold Signals Daily
Join now: t.me/+BT9z8lt4yJ01OGVl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.