Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long
Updated

Middle East tensions rise; gold may hit new highs next week

3 177
The Middle East situation has continued to escalate over the weekend, indicating that gold may witness a rally at Monday's opening. On Friday morning, risk aversion surged rapidly, pushing the gold price to around 3,444, followed by a pullback. During the European session, the price quickly retreated to around 3,408 before rebounding—our strategy to go long near 3,410 at the time proved profitable. In the U.S. session, gold mounted a second rally, peaking at around 3,446 before entering a pullback and consolidation phase. However, from a fundamental perspective, the overall trend remains bullish; thus, buying on dips remains the primary trading approach.

From a 4-hour technical view, immediate support lies in the 3,405–15 range, with key support at the recent resistance-turned-support zone near 3,375–80. When gold pulls back, traders should focus on longing near these levels. The critical bullish pivot for short-term traders has shifted up to the 3,345–50 zone; as long as gold holds above this level on the daily time frame, the dip-buying strategy should be maintained.

XAUUSD
buy@3405-3415
tp:3340-3360

Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
Note
XAUUSD
buy@3405-3415
tp:3440-3460
Trade active
According to officials from the Middle East and Europe, Iran has been urgently sending signals in recent days, explicitly expressing its willingness to end hostilities and resume negotiations on its nuclear program, while delivering relevant messages to Israel and the U.S. through Arab intermediaries. Following the announcement of the news, gold prices plunged over $20 in the short term, though they have rebounded somewhat at present.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that military strikes will continue until Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities are completely dismantled, showing no signs of halting. While he claimed that regime change is not the objective, he pointed out that given the weakness of Iran's leadership, political upheaval could become a collateral outcome of the operations.

In view of the Middle East situation, contradictions are unlikely to be substantially resolved in the short term. Against this backdrop, I remain optimistic about the long-term trend of gold.
Trade closed: target reached
During this round, the price was sold off sharply from the historical high of 3,500 to 3,120 before rebounding. After consecutive rallies, it faced pressure and fell back to 3,452 due to the fading of market risk aversion. On Friday, it rebounded from a low of 3,340. The daily chart recorded a consolidative bearish candle, with the K-line combination leaning bearish, while the 4H chart showed signs of stopping the decline.

In the short term, it is expected to consolidate below 3,400 next week. For the medium term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical crisis and the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision. A breakthrough node will be ushered in after confirming the resistance above 3,400.

On the short-term 4-hour chart, the support below is focused around 3,340-45, and the short-term resistance above is around 3,380-85. The key focus is on the suppression at the 3,400-05 level. The overall strategy of going long on pullbacks within this range remains unchanged. For medium-term positions, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, avoid chasing orders, and patiently wait for entry at key levels.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.