Market Context & Fundamental Overview
Gold surged 4.85% last week, closing in on the critical $3,500 resistance zone, as the U.S. Dollar came under intense pressure. Key catalysts include:
Moody’s Downgrade of U.S. credit outlook, driving the DXY below 100.00
Mounting concerns over fiscal stability as the $3.8 trillion tax bill advances to the Senate
Long-dated Treasury yields topped 5%, signalling investor anxiety
Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East (Israel–Iran risks), fuelling safe-haven demand
Anticipation of a dovish shift from the Fed, with this week’s FOMC minutes (Wed) and Core PCE print (Fri) likely to influence USD direction and risk sentiment
These macro conditions reinforce the bullish case for gold, providing fundamental alignment with the current technical setup.
Technical Analysis (Elliott Wave Framework)
Gold appears to be forming a classic 5-wave impulsive structure. Current price action suggests we are in or near the end of Wave 1, which should pullback into a key Fibonacci retracement zone (50–61.8%).
Wave 1: Completed – sharp rally from previous support
Wave 2: Ongoing – corrective pullback into Fib zone
Wave 3: Anticipated next move – typically the strongest impulsive leg
Market Structure Observations:
Price respecting higher timeframe support
Momentum indicators beginning to stabilise
No sign of deeper invalidation yet
Trade Plan
Entry Strategy
Aggressive Entry: Enter on a clear bounce from the Fibonacci zone (~61.8% retracement), with a strong bullish candle or momentum signal
Conservative Entry: Wait for a break above the Wave 1 high to confirm trend continuation into Wave 3
Stop Loss
Below the Wave 2 low / structural invalidation level
Take Profit Levels
TP1: $3,500 (recent high and resistance)
TP2: $3,750 (projected Wave 3 target based on 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1)
Gold surged 4.85% last week, closing in on the critical $3,500 resistance zone, as the U.S. Dollar came under intense pressure. Key catalysts include:
Moody’s Downgrade of U.S. credit outlook, driving the DXY below 100.00
Mounting concerns over fiscal stability as the $3.8 trillion tax bill advances to the Senate
Long-dated Treasury yields topped 5%, signalling investor anxiety
Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East (Israel–Iran risks), fuelling safe-haven demand
Anticipation of a dovish shift from the Fed, with this week’s FOMC minutes (Wed) and Core PCE print (Fri) likely to influence USD direction and risk sentiment
These macro conditions reinforce the bullish case for gold, providing fundamental alignment with the current technical setup.
Technical Analysis (Elliott Wave Framework)
Gold appears to be forming a classic 5-wave impulsive structure. Current price action suggests we are in or near the end of Wave 1, which should pullback into a key Fibonacci retracement zone (50–61.8%).
Wave 1: Completed – sharp rally from previous support
Wave 2: Ongoing – corrective pullback into Fib zone
Wave 3: Anticipated next move – typically the strongest impulsive leg
Market Structure Observations:
Price respecting higher timeframe support
Momentum indicators beginning to stabilise
No sign of deeper invalidation yet
Trade Plan
Entry Strategy
Aggressive Entry: Enter on a clear bounce from the Fibonacci zone (~61.8% retracement), with a strong bullish candle or momentum signal
Conservative Entry: Wait for a break above the Wave 1 high to confirm trend continuation into Wave 3
Stop Loss
Below the Wave 2 low / structural invalidation level
Take Profit Levels
TP1: $3,500 (recent high and resistance)
TP2: $3,750 (projected Wave 3 target based on 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.