TSLA: Has finally reached its critical support (D & W analysis)!TSLA shares have corrected to the support level we identified in our last public analysis, in the vicinity of the green line at $230, between the 50ma and the 200ma. In fact, it looks like the 200ma is serving as our last support, since the price is bouncing right back after hitting this indicator. The link to my previous public analysis is below this post, as usual.
Volume has fallen sharply and TSLA's shares are very weak, as it is the only one among the "magnificent 7" that is not showing any signs of recovery this week.
In two weeks the company will release its earnings report, and this will be an important event, but until then, we don't see any technical signs suggesting a bottom. Yes, the price has reached an extremely important support point, but we need to see confirmation of a bottom signal to believe in a decent recovery.
Despite the signs of weakness, the price is not in a downtrend yet, for that we need to see LHs/LLs. Now, let’s look at the weekly chart:
From a technical point of view, the next resistance is around $300, the previous top. Can TSLA get there? In theory yes, but in practice we need to see a clear bottom signal, as mentioned in the analysis of the daily chart.
You have to admit that if TSLA were going to react, now would be the perfect time, we just need confirmation. On the other hand, if the price loses the critical support point on the daily chart, nothing would prevent a sharper correction on the weekly chart, perhaps to its next support around $207, or even to the support line of its Descending Channel. This would frustrate the breakout of the previous resistance of this channel, characterizing a false breakout, a powerful bearish signal.
If you ask my personal opinion, I wish to see TSLA making a bottom around this support area, as the Risk/Reward ratio for a long trade would be attractive, however, we see no confirmation yet, and there is no meaningful bullish reaction suggesting a possible recovery yet.
I’ll keep you updated on this, so consider following me for more analysis like this, and support this idea if you liked it.
All the best,
Nathan.
50ma
TSLA: Approaching a major turning point.TSLA's shares are collapsing, even though the company is beating vehicle delivery expectations. This can be explained by the fierce competition coming from China, as TSLA lost its position as the world's biggest seller of electric cars to BYD in the last four months of 2023 - even though the American company managed to beat its own expectations.
This not only affects TSLA, but also the shares of RIVN and LCID, the former of which also managed to exceed expectations for vehicle production.
From a technical point of view, the price could fall to the next support level in the next few days, around $230 . The price is already entering a short-term downtrend , as it has lost the 21 EMA, and in the absence of a clear bullish reaction that could reverse sentiment, this is the most likely scenario.
What should the price do so it can reverse this bearish sentiment? It would be nice to see a clear reversal candlestick, closing above the 21 EMA again . So far, there are no technical buy signals in my view.
Are there any other possible support points? Yes, we see the 50-period and 200-period averages very close to each other, also in the $230 area mentioned earlier, reinforcing the idea that $230 could be an important support for TSLA . It would be important to see the price react above this area to avoid a Death Cross (when the 50MA breaks the 200MA downwards).
A warning sign is the divergence between the RSI and the price. While the price was making higher tops, the RSI was already making lower tops, as evidenced by the red arrows in the chart above.
In addition, the RSI is already losing its support levels, while the price is still above them (green lines). This can be characterized as an Advanced Breakout (when an indicator anticipates a breakout in price).
For now, TSLA shares are in correction territory, and although we see a promising support zone near $230, I don't see any technical evidence that convinces me of a bullish reversal at the moment.
I'll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me for more daily analysis like this, and support this idea if you like it or learn something new here.
All the best,
Nathan.
Current Weekly Chart Channel on BTCUSDWe can see the bottom trendline has held support thus far and the red double bottom neckline is holding wick support. Definitely key trendlines to watch in the near future. I could see it retesting the red neckline once the weekly 50ma(in orange) comes up to overlap it for double reinforced support. *not financial advice*
15 consecutive daily candles above totals descending channelWe can see price action came back down to retest the top trendline of this descending brown channel with exact precision and held above it now for 14 consecutive 1day candle closes. It is very likely to close a 15th consecutive candle here soon. We can see one wick back below the top trendline of the channel that was ultimately supported by the 1 day 5ma(in orange). That 50ma is now getting closes to rising above the channel itself for added springboard support. We can also see that the daily stoch rsi is reet as well with plenty of room to head upward. Everything is looking very good for the breakout of this channel to be validated in the ear future. *not financial advice*
Predict Bitcoin's Price with "W" pattern from the 50 and 200 MA 50 MA in blue, 200 MA in green. There is a "W" pattern where the 50 MA also crosses under or over the 200 MA. It can be useful in short-term and long-term trading.
If the pattern repeats itself, with your ruler you can see that there should be a correction for the next 2 months (according to the previous corrections in the bull run which are about the same length).
It’s also interesting to look at how deep the second correction, or “V”, will go. In the W pattern of End 2019 (October) - Middle 2020 (May), the 2nd dip was deeper than the first and it resulted in a bull market.
We could argue that it also happened back in July/August 2014 – October 2015.
In the W pattern of Middle 2021 (May) - End 2021 (October), the second dip was higher than the first and it resulted in a bear market.
We therefore have to wait to see if there will be a correction and how deep it will be, continue to use indicators, and find patterns.
BTC/USD 1 Week ChartOn Monday, BTC had finally crossed above and broke through its major resistance area located on this 1 week charts at $32,415 - $27,785.
Note:
BTC is still in a Rising Wedge Pattern as well as an Upwards Channel Pattern.
BTC is still in a massive Megaphone/Broadening Wedge Pattern otherwise known as an Ichimoku Y-Wave Pattern.
Take Note of the Liquidity Voids.
Note that the 50MA is moving upwards so if we continue having positive momentum, we will eventually see a Golden Cross on this BTC/USD 1 Week Chart when the 50MA (Yellow Line) crosses back above the 200MA (Red Line).
Here is a closer look at this BTC/USD 1 Week Chart.
RSI:
Note that the RSI has crossed into the Overbought Zone. Don't panic! The RSI Line can continue continue going further upwards as well as range sideways in this zone.
Up/Down Volume:
Consequence of DivergenceJW to again observe the divergence, I called this on prior posts, see what happens when RSI Falls in face of rising Price?!
Well, fine, hope you enjoyed your bearish gains. You shorted, right? O, still holding longs?
Well you might get a chance to close those out soon.
Notice how oversold it goes, trading at bottom of Bolly Band, under 50MA... might be a good place to close shorts, eh?
Selloff on retail sales report is overdone imo. What a nutty roller-coaster.
Can still go lower ofc; do not bet your farm on any wild notions!
Pearson down 11% on AI worriesIf AI is eating your lunch, your company better have a good strategic plan to adjust and create new revenue streams.
This is classic Marketing myopia, e.g. US railways, in mid 20th century, saw market share eroded by the airlines. That's because railroads never saw themselves in the transportation business, and limited themselves themselves by thinking they were in Railroads alone.
Pearson has had to deal with all sorts of changes, especially technology, and I'm sure they will have a strategic plan.
Technicals: Bearish reversal now under 50 weekly EMA, but volume isn't high so early days. Below 756 would confirm a new downtrend.
EURCAD I Approach key reversal zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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GBPUSD I Potential intraday long from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Xrp still inside a slightly larger symmetrical log triangleWe had a glorious breakout yesterday and today have seen that candle retrace more than 50 % of its length liquidating all sorts of top buyers no doubt. This happened after price manages a wick above the monthly 50m (in orange) but ultimately was rejected from that zone. It wasn’t just the monthly 50ma that put up the resistance however…there is in fact one last top trendline of a slightly bigger triangle on the xrp log chart shown here in red. Price action got close enough to this line to experience a rejection through the combined resistance of it and the monthly 50ma…the red triangle’s apex isn’t until the end of June…hopefully price will break above it in the current zone though when patterns usually have their breakouts on average (about 5-15% away from the apex). If it takes as long as it did to break up from our pink triangle however it could consolidate inside the triangle here until late June. That would shake a lot of frustrated weak hands no doubt. However I’m still confident we have broken up from the pink triangle and should still reach its full $4.90 target, might just take many months to get us there. The first step will be flipping the top red trendline to solid support and an even more important next step will be flipping the monthly 50ma to solid support. Those are the 2 trendlines to watch. *not financial advice*
Have You Considered A Ride Down IWM 170? AMEX:IWM 50 MA crossed down the 200 MA on the daily and 4H timeframe. The daily chart shows a lot of sellers. IWM also made lower highs on the weekly timeframe. Also, the exchange traded fund is resting on a trendline that it's maintained since March 2020! If we break down below 170 and it holds, IWM should see more downside. The weekly chart shows an increase of sellers between last week and this week. Last but not least, the etf shows a shooting star candle that printed on the weekly chart (March 13-17, 2023). Therefore, my plan is to short IWM below 170!
I will ride down IWM 170 (provided price gets there of course).
*This is not financial advice
Peace & Harmony,
MrALtrades00
VET/USDVET/USD very quick update.
Here is a closer look at this VET/USD 1 day chart:
VeChain is in a new smaller Descending Channel which is in a massive Descending Channel. VeChain is also in a massive Symmetrical Triangle.
At the moment of typing this, VeChain is still in the Bullish Zone above its Ichimoku Cloud.
At the moment of typing this, VeChain is still above its 200MA. Note that the 50MA is still traveling upwards so we may eventually see the 50MA cross above the 200MA on this 1 day chart.
Not that overall traded volume is still very low compared to what we were getting from 2018 to 2021.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is dropping with the ADX (Orange Line) at 36.08 and under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 39.52. Positive Momentum has dropped with the +DI (Green Line) dropping to 19.73. Negative momentum has also dropped a little with the -DI (Red Line) slightly dropping to 15.87 on this 1 day chart.
I hope this very quick update is helpful.
GBPUSD I Short and long opportunity outlookWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Monthly 50MA pressure. For the first time in trading history, Bitcoin will close under 50MA on 1-month chart.
This is besides death cross on the 1 week chart.
Again and again, I urge those who are in love with 1-4 hour charts to watch the larger timeframes.
Unique events are happening and we can see that they are having an impact.
Who's to say how long the bear market will take now with an event like this?
We can only hope that 2024 brings some improvement.
And I really regret that Circle kept some of the currency collateral in that bank .
NZDCHF I Local short from resistance zone Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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USDJPY I Intraday buy from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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BTC/USD - Interesting times ahead with an Ascending ChannelBTC/USD 1 day chart quick update.
Here is a closer look at this 1 day chart.
BTC is in an Ascending Channel Pattern.
BTC is still in a Falling Wedge Pattern.
BTC is still in a Descending Channel.
BTC is still in a massive Ichimoku Y Wave Pattern.
At the moment of typing this, BTC is fighting to stay back above its 200MA. If BTC CLOSES this or tomorrows daily candle ABOVE the 200MA and stays above it, and we see a successful re-test of the 200MA as strong support, then we could see BTC attempt to break out of its Falling Wedge Pattern upper trend-line.
Note that BTC has not closed above its 200MA since Monday 27th December 2021.
Note that BTC is also back in the Bullish Zone of its Ichimoku Cloud.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands, we can see the Bollinger Bands Upper and Lower Bands are expanding away from each other indicating increased volatility for the upside because the Middle Band is also pointing upwards. The Price is also walking up the outside of its Upper Band.
Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is in the Overbought Zone on this 1 day timeframe. The RSI is still above its 9 Period EMA. With the RSI in the Overbought Zone doesn’t mean it will drop as the RSI line can range sideways for a prolonged period of time.
Interesting times ahead if BTC manages to CLOSE this daily candle ABOVE its 200MA and then its Falling Wedge Pattern’s upper trend-line. A successful re-test of these 2 levels as strong support will be further confirmation that the bottom is in and a new uptrend has started. Note that after such a huge rise, maybe not yet, but we should expect at some point a correction downwards on this1 day timeframe. Who knows, if this continues, we may eventually see a Golden Cross on this 1 day timeframe when the 50MA crosses back above the 200MA.
I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
Correction on chart as i had the wrong trend-line signed above for the Ichimoku Y Wave lower trend-line. Below is the correction. Apologies.
Link breaking above last potential top trendline of triangleIt’s still unclear whether or not link’s macro pattern is more valid as a falling wedge or a symmetrical triangle, however it seems now that we are finally closing daily candles above the last potential top trendline for that pattern. That trendline is most valid on the weekly chart so we still need to close the current weekly candle above the white trendline..after that we should see the follow up weekly candle confirm the white trendline as support on a retest ….if the follow up weekly candle closes above the white trendline odds are very good at that point the breakout will be validated…it may wait until the 3rd weekly candle to start the bullish impulse…or it could come as early as the current weekly candle…will have to see how the next few weekly candles play out. I chose to show this chart on the daily time frame instead of the weekly to illustrate how price action is also now back above both the 1 day 50 and 200 moving averages. If it can hold the daily 200ma as support during the next few weekly closes then the breakout will be confirmed. *not financial advice*