AUDUSD SHORT & LONG – WEEKLY FORECAST Q3 | W 29 | Y25💼 AUDUSD SHORT & LONG – WEEKLY FORECAST
Q3 | W 29 | Y25
📊 MARKET STRUCTURE OVERVIEW
AUDUSD is currently trading around a previously mitigated Daily and 4H Order Block zone.
Price has shown signs of short-term bearish momentum on lower timeframes (1H & 15m), but the broader structure still allows for bullish re-entries from deeper discounted levels.
We’re entering a key decision zone with potential for both short and long opportunities, depending on intraday confirmation.
🔍 Confluences to Watch 📝
✅ Daily OB – Previously Mitigated
Larger structure still holds room for bullish continuation if key internal supports hold.
✅ 4H OB – Mitigated with Initial Rejection
✅ 1H & 15m OBs – Valid for Intraday Shorts
Clean bearish structure on intraday timeframes.
Potential shorts available
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core Principles
Risk per trade: Max 1%
Only act at planned levels — never chase
RR minimum: 1:2
Use scaling techniques on intraday shorts, and hold conviction for swings when structure confirms
🧠 Your risk plan is your protection. Without it, your strategy is meaningless.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
“Bias is flexible. Discipline is not.”
Adapt to what price gives — but never abandon your risk framework.
🏁 Final Thoughts from FRGNT
📌 Both short and long opportunities are valid this week.
📌 Choose your bias based on structure + confirmation.
📌 Let the order flow lead and risk management guide.
❤️ Stay sharp, stay structured. I’ll see you at the very top.
🎯 Trade consistent. FRGNT X
AUDUSD
AUSSIE BANK ROBBERY: AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Confirmed!🔥 AUD/USD BANK HEIST: The Ultimate Bullish Robbery Plan (Thief Trading Style) 🔥
🌟 ATTENTION, MONEY MAKERS & MARKET ROBBERS! 🌟
💸 MISSION BRIEF:
Based on Thief Trading Style (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re executing a bullish heist on AUD/USD ("The Aussie")—time to steal those pips like a pro!
📈 ENTRY STRATEGY (The Heist Begins!)
Long Entry Trigger: Wait for Dynamic Resistance MA crossover + candle close above 0.65300 (bullish confirmation).
Pro Tip: Use Buy Stop orders above MA or Buy Limit orders on pullbacks (15m/30m timeframe).
🔔 SET AN ALERT! Don’t miss the breakout—alert up, gloves on!
🛑 STOP LOSS (Protect Your Loot!)
"Yo, rookie! 🗣️ If you’re entering on breakout, DO NOT set SL before confirmation!
📍 Thief SL Placement: Nearest 4H swing low (0.64800)—adjust based on your risk, lot size, & trade multiples.
⚠️ Warning: Deviate at your own peril—your risk, your rules!
🎯 TARGET (Cash Out & Run!)
Take Profit Zone: 0.65800
Scalpers: Long-only plays! Use trailing SL to lock profits.
Swing Traders: Ride the wave—big money moves require patience!
📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP (Know Why We Robbin’!)
Bullish momentum fueled by macro trends, COT data, sentiment shifts.
🚨 Breaking News Alert: Avoid high-impact news spikes—trail SL or stay out!
💥 BOOST THE HEIST!
Hit 👍 LIKE, 🔄 SHARE & 🚀 BOOST—strengthen the robbery squad! More heists = more profits!
🤑 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… STAY TUNED! 🐱👤
AUDUSD: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
The price of AUDUSD will most likely collapse soon enough, due to the supply beginning to exceed demand which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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AUDUSD – The Spring Is Loading!AUDUSD has just pulled off an impressive rebound from the 0.6460 support zone, bouncing cleanly off the ascending trendline — like a compressed spring ready to launch. The repeated appearance of Fair Value Gaps after recent upward moves reveals a critical clue: smart money is stepping back in, and this time, they want control.
The price is now testing the familiar resistance at 0.6616 — a zone that has previously rejected several bullish attempts. But this time feels different. The US dollar is clearly losing steam after softer CPI data, pushing bond yields lower and giving AUD a tactical edge.
If the 0.6520 support holds strong, the next breakout won’t just be about overcoming resistance — it could be the spark for a new bullish wave. And when that wave hits... it won’t go unnoticed.
AUDUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q3 D11 W28 Y25AUDUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q3 D11 W28 Y25
It’s Fun Coupon Friday! 💸🔥
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
✅1H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
AUDUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart, the price could fall toward our buy entry level at 0.6554, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 0.6617, aligning with the 127.2% Fib extension.
The stop loss is set at 0.6508, an overlap support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
AUD/USD: Short Setup to 0.6450This trade idea is rooted in a data-driven approach, leveraging a rare asymmetry in the economic calendar and specific quantitative models to identify a high-clarity opportunity.
📊 The Thesis by the Numbers
My model assigns clear probabilities to the potential scenarios for this week, based on the scheduled U.S. data releases.
60% Probability: Base Case (USD Strength). Triggered by a U.S. Core CPI reading at or above 0.3% MoM.
30% Probability: Alternative Case (USD Weakness).
10% Probability: Wildcard Scenario (Risk-On Rally).
🧠 The Data-Driven Rationale
This setup scored a -5 on my quantitative thesis model, indicating a strong bearish conviction. The core of this is the one-sided event risk. With Australia's calendar completely empty, the AUD is a sitting duck. Meanwhile, a volley of tier-one U.S. data (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales) is expected to confirm a robust economy. This fundamental divergence, combined with a technical picture of price coiling below long-term resistance, creates the conditions for a catalyst-driven drop.
⛓️ Intermarket & Statistical Edge
Further analysis of market correlations and forward-looking models reinforces the bearish bias.
🌐 Correlations: The positive correlation of AUD/USD with equities (SPY: +0.31) suggests that a strong USD report, which could pressure stocks, would create a direct headwind for the Aussie.
🎲 Monte Carlo Simulation: While the mean outcome is neutral, the model's 5th percentile for price is down at 0.6503 , highlighting the statistical risk of a significant downside move if the catalyst fires.
✅ The Trade Setup
📉 Bias: Bearish / Short
👉 Entry: Watch for a bearish reversal pattern on the 1H or 4H chart within the $0.6550 resistance zone.
⛔️ Stop Loss: A decisive daily close above the 0.6622 resistance level.
🎯 Target: 0.6458 (June low-day close).
Good luck, and trade safe.
AUDUSD Strong bullish momentum inside this Channel Up.The AUDUSD pair has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up pattern and on Monday almost hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded. This is the start of its new Bullish Leg.
Based on the previous ones, it should complete a +2.70% rise at least. As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, we are bullish, targeting 0.66555.
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AUD/USD Rebounds From Channel Support – Eyes on 0.66 BreakoutThe Australian dollar is pressing higher against the U.S. dollar after rebounding from the lower boundary of a rising parallel channel. Price remains above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, with the latter recently reclaimed — a bullish sign for medium-term trend strength.
The pair is now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July 2023–April 2024 decline at 0.6558, which has been a sticky resistance zone. A clean break above this level would put the upper boundary of the channel — currently near 0.6670 — in focus.
Indicators:
MACD is flat but on the verge of turning higher, suggesting early signs of renewed momentum.
RSI is at 56, pointing to modest bullish momentum with room to run before reaching overbought territory.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 0.6558 (Fibonacci), followed by the channel top near 0.6670.
Support: 0.6480 (channel base and 50-day SMA), then 0.6409 (200-day SMA).
Conclusion:
AUD/USD is holding within a constructive channel pattern with support from key moving averages. A sustained break above 0.6558 would confirm bullish continuation toward the upper end of the range. Traders may look for confirmation through momentum indicators and daily close strength.
-MW
AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
✅1H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Could the Aussie reverse from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6650
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6588
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 0.6481
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
China's PPI slides, Australian dollar steadyThe Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.03% on the day.
China's producer price index surprised on the downside in June, with a steep 3.6% y/y decline. TThe soft PPI report was driven by weak domestic demand and the continuing uncertainty over US tariffs. The lack of consumer demand was reflected in the weak CPI reading of 0.1% y /y, the first gain in four months. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.1%, following a 0.2% drop in May. There was a silver lining as core CPI rose 0.7% y/y, the fastest pace in 14 months.
The uncertainty over US President Trump's tariff policy continues to perplex the financial markets. Trump had promised a new round of tariffs against a host of countries on July 9 but he has delayed that deadline until August 1.
China, the world's second-largest economy after the US, has taken a hit from US tariffs, as China's exports to the US are down 9.7% this year, However, China has mitigated much of the damage as China's exports to the rest of the world are up 6%. There is a trade truce in effect between the two countries but the bruising trade war will continue to dampen US-China trade.
With no tier-1 events out of the US today, the FOMC minutes of the June meeting will be on center stage. The Fed held rates at that meeting and Fed Chair Powell, who has taken a lot of heat from Donald Trump to cut rates, defended his wait-and-see-attitude, citing the uncertainty that Trump's tariffs are having on US growth and inflation forecasts.his was below the May decline of 3.3% and the consensus of -3.2%. China has posted producer deflation for 33 successive months and the June figure marked the steepest slide since July 2023. Monthly, PPI declined by 0.4%, unchanged over the past three months.
Quiet Before the Move — What AUD Options Are Telling UsThe AUD is stuck inside its recent range — trading has gone sideways, and trying to predict a breakout direction ahead of key moves would be premature (for more on the “Suffering Trader” concept, click here ).
Price is consolidating just below a cluster of previously opened retail longs. This "failure to achieve" undermines the case of shorting this level right now. So for the time being, I’ll stay in observation mode and watch which side ends up suffering the most.
Now, looking at the CME data , there’s been a meaningful inflow in deep-out-of-the-money call options at the 0.665 strike . That’s interesting.
Also worth noting: just above, at the 0.67 strike , we saw a similar inflow a couple of days ago — and that portfolio remains static. No repositioning or outflows so far.
That silence could mean something. Or nothing — yet.
We’re watching closely.
AUDUSD 4H: Sell Zone Confirmed📉 AUDUSD Analysis – Current Trend & Trade Opportunity
Hello Traders,
I’ve prepared an updated analysis for the AUDUSD pair.
At the moment, AUDUSD has shifted out of its previous bullish structure and has now entered a bearish trend. Based on this shift, I’m planning to enter a limit sell trade at the level shared below:
🔹 Limit Sell Entry: 0.65232
🔹 Stop Loss: 0.65576
🔹 Targets:
• TP1: 0.64591
• TP2: 0.64591
• TP3: 0.63738
🔸 Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.27
Considering the trend reversal, I’m looking to open a position from these levels.
I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses.
I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Attempts Fresh ClimbMarket Analysis: AUD/USD Attempts Fresh Climb
AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 0.6485 support.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6485 and recovered against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6535 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase above 0.6550. The Aussie Dollar tested the 0.6585 zone before the bears appeared and pushed it lower against the US Dollar.
The pair declined below the 0.6560 and 0.6550 support levels. The recent low was formed at 0.6485 and the pair is rising again. The bulls pushed it above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6588 swing high to the 0.6485 low.
The pair is now consolidating above the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the resistance is near the 0.6535 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming at 0.6535.
The first major resistance might be 0.6550 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level. An upside break above it might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6560 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6585 resistance zone.
If not, the pair might correct lower. Immediate support sits near the 0.6510 level. The next support could be 0.6485. If there is a downside break below 0.6485, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6440 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6420.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUDUSD Will Move Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.653.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.649 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Bearish drop off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has rejected off the pivot, which acts as a pullback resistance, and could drop to the 1st support, which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.6550
1st Support: 0.6492
1st Resistance: 0.6590
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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Australian dollar stabilizes after RBA's surpriseThe Australian dollar is in positive territory after a three-day skid, declining 1.5%. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.50% on the day. The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.95% earlier before retreating.
The Reserve Bank of Australia blindslided the markets on Tuesday as the central bank held the cash rate at 3.85%. The markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 96%, but the RBA had the last laugh. For the first time, the RBA published the vote tally, which was 6-3 in favor of maintaining the rate.
The rate statement was cautious, as members said "there are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation".
Governor Bullock tried to calm the markets, saying that the decision was about "timing rather than direction" and that the Bank would "wait a few weeks" to confirm that inflation was on track to ease and remain sustainably around 2.5%. Bullock said that "we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again".
Inflation is moving in the right direction but the RBA wants to see the second-quarter inflation report on July 30, ahead of the rate decision on Aug. 12. Headline CPI in May eased to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% in April. The core rate dropped to 2.8% from 2.4% in April, the lowest rate since early 2022.
The RBA will be hoping that waiting till August will provide some clarity with regard to US tariff policy. President Trump has pledged new tariffs against various countries but this move is not expected to have much impact on Australia's economy.
AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6513. Above, there is resistance at 0.6541
There is support at 0.6463 and 0.6435
Australian dollar stabilizes after RBA's surprise The Australian dollar is in positive territory after a three-day skid, declining 1.5%. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.50% on the day. The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.95% earlier before retreating.
The Reserve Bank of Australia blindslided the markets on Tuesday as the central bank held the cash rate at 3.85%. The markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 96%, but the RBA had the last laugh. For the first time, the RBA published the vote tally, which was 6-3 in favor of maintaining the rate.
The rate statement was cautious, as members said "there are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation".
Governor Bullock tried to calm the markets, saying that the decision was about "timing rather than direction" and that the Bank would "wait a few weeks" to confirm that inflation was on track to ease and remain sustainably around 2.5%. Bullock said that "we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again".
Inflation is moving in the right direction but the RBA wants to see the second-quarter inflation report on July 30, ahead of the rate decision on Aug. 12. Headline CPI in May eased to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% in April. The core rate dropped to 2.8% from 2.4% in April, the lowest rate since early 2022.
The RBA will be hoping that waiting till August will provide some clarity with regard to US tariff policy. President Trump has pledged new tariffs against various countries but this move is not expected to have much impact on Australia's economy.
AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6513.
Above, there is resistance at 0.6541
There is support at 0.6463 and 0.6435
XAU/USD : Gold is falling , When it Stops? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that, in line with our latest analysis, the bearish momentum has continued—and even more strongly than expected. Gold has broken below the key $3300 level and is currently trading around $3294.
Given the strong momentum, further downside is likely. The next bearish targets are $3289, $3276, $3262, and $3254.
All key supply and demand zones are clearly marked on the chart.
(And if you're looking for more precise trading levels, just drop a comment and I'll guide you.)
GBP/USD : Get Ready for Another Fall!By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after reaching 1.36800—filling the targeted FVG as expected—the price faced selling pressure once again and has since dropped to around 1.35690.
The first target at 1.35630 is now within reach. After collecting liquidity below this level and a possible short-term bounce, we can expect another bearish continuation on GBPUSD.
Key supply zones to watch are 1.36180–1.36465 and 1.36940.
Key demand zones are located at 1.35630, 1.35100, and 1.34880.
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :