Surprise halt by the RBA. A positive for the AUD.After a surprise halt by the RBA, where the Bank kept the cash rate unchanged, MARKETSCOM:AUDUSD reversed sharply higher. Where it may go next? Let's dig in.
FX_IDC:AUDUSD
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AUDUSD
Aussie H4 | Pullback support at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6514 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 0.6475 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 0.6586 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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AUDUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on AUDUSD?
The AUDUSD pair reached a resistance zone, which was accompanied by a negative divergence, signaling weakening bullish momentum. This led to a bearish reaction from that area.
We expect that, after some consolidation around this resistance, the pair will likely continue its decline at least toward the specified support level.
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Heading into pullback resistance?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 0.6587
1st Support: 0.6492
1st Resistance: 0.6634
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUD/USD Short: Riding the Perfect Storm to 0.6400Hello, traders! 🚀
A rare and powerful setup is forming on AUD/USD, and all signs are pointing decisively lower. 👇 This isn't just a simple technical pattern; it's a perfect storm of fundamental, technical, and event-driven factors aligning to create a high-conviction short opportunity.
If you're looking for a clean setup with a clear catalyst, this is it. Let's break it down! 🧐
The Core Thesis: Why We're Bearish 🌪️
This trade is built on three powerful pillars that are converging at the same time:
Massive Policy Divergence: 🇺🇸 vs 🇦🇺 This is the engine of the trade.
The Fed (USD): Remains HAWKISH 🦅. They are laser-focused on fighting stubborn inflation and have signaled they are in no rush to cut rates.
The RBA (AUD): Is actively DOVISH 🐨. They've already cut rates and are widely expected to cut again this week to support a weakening economy.
Result: This widening gap in interest rate policy creates a fundamental tailwind that heavily favors a stronger USD and a weaker AUD. 💸
The Dual-Catalyst Event (July 9th): 🗓️ This is the trigger.
FOMC Minutes Release: The minutes from the Fed's last meeting are expected to confirm their hawkish stance, reinforcing USD strength.
Tariff Deadline: A 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs expires on the same day . The base case is that tariffs will be reimposed, sparking a risk-off move in the markets.
Result: Risk-off sentiment is toxic for the risk-sensitive Aussie dollar (AUD) and a magnet for the safe-haven US dollar (USD). This is a potential double-whammy for AUD/USD. 💥
The Technical Picture is Screaming "Down" 📉
The chart tells a crystal-clear story of rejection and weakness. As you can see on the 4H chart, the price action is incredibly bearish after failing to break out higher.
The Great Wall of Resistance: Bulls threw everything they had at the 0.6590 - 0.6600 resistance zone and were decisively rejected. 🧱 This wasn't just any level; it was an 8-month high and a major long-term resistance area. A failure this strong is a huge red flag for buyers. 🛑
Momentum has Flipped: We saw classic bearish divergence on the higher timeframes, and as you can see on this 4H chart, we have now decisively broken below the recent rising channel. The path of least resistance has flipped from up to down. 👇
The Trade Plan 🎯
Here are the precise levels for executing this trade idea.
Asset: AUD/USD
Direction: Short (Sell) 📉
Entry Zone: ➡️ Look for a patient entry on a pullback to the 0.6535 - 0.6550 area. This was previous support and is now expected to act as strong resistance. We want to sell into strength.
Stop Loss: 🛑 A daily close above 0.6610 . This level is safely above the recent highs. A break here would invalidate our bearish thesis.
Target 1 (TP1): ✅ 0.6475 . This is the first logical support level. A good area to take partial profits and move your stop loss to break-even.
Target 2 (TP2): 🏆 0.6400 . This is our primary target, representing the bottom of the multi-week trading range and offering an excellent risk-to-reward ratio.
Conclusion: 💡
It's rare for fundamentals, technicals, and a major event catalyst to align so perfectly. The rejection at major resistance, combined with the powerful fundamental driver of policy divergence and the upcoming dual-catalyst on July 9th, makes this a high-conviction setup.
This is my analysis and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk carefully.
What do you think? Are you bearish on the Aussie too? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇
And if you found this analysis helpful, please give it a BOOST 🚀 and FOLLOW for more trade ideas! 👍
AUDUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q3 W28 Y25AUDUSD SHORT & LONG FORECAST Q3 W28 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
✅1H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Contrarian Alert: Retail Is Buying, But Should You Sell?So far, there are no significant changes in the options flow suggesting a shift in sentiment or restructuring of previously established bullish positions. The market remains on watch, but interesting signals are coming from other sources.
According to the latest COT reports , institutional players continue to align with the current trend, reinforcing its stability.
However, retail positioning is starting to show signs of a potential reversal , with a noticeable increase in net-long positions and fresh buying activity over the past two days. This often indicates early countertrend interest.
The well-known contrarian principle — "do the opposite" — applies here, although it shouldn't be taken as an immediate signal to short.
For my part, I’ve identified the 0.6565–0.6570 zone as a key level where long positions are concentrated:
A rejection from this zone could offer a solid shorting opportunity.
A break above it would suggest the trend might resume higher.
By that point, updated options flow data and new positioning COT reports may provide further confirmation.
AUDUSD oversold rebound at 0.6465 ?Trend Overview:
The AUDUSD currency price remains in a bullish trend, characterised by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: 0.6465 (primary pivot), followed by 0.6445 and 0.6400
Resistance: 0.6570 (initial), then 0.6590 and 0.6625
Technical Outlook:
A pullback to the 0.6465 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 0.6570, 0.6590, and ultimately 0.6625.
Conversely, a daily close below 0.6465 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 0.6445 and 0.6400 as downside levels.
Conclusion:
AUDUSD maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 0.6465 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern, with upside potential toward the 0.6570 area. A breakdown below 0.6465, however, would invalidate this view and suggest deeper corrective risk.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
AUDUSD SHORT & LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D7 W28 Y25AUDUSD SHORT & LONG DAILY FORECAST Q3 D7 W28 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
✅1H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
AUDUSD Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 0.657.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 0.654 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Could the Aussie bounce from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level too ur take profit.
Entry: 0.6492
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6450
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.6551
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6423
1st Support: 0.6328
1st Resistance: 0.6583
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?AUD/USD has rejected off the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support, which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6558
1st Support: 0.6409
1st Resistance: 0.6647
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling our buy entry level at 0.6492, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 0.6544, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 0.6445, a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
AUD_USD WILL GO UP|LONG|
✅AUD_USD has retested a key support level of 0.6540
And as the pair is already making a bullish rebound
A move up to retest the supply level above at 0.6584 is likely
LONG🚀
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AUDUSD 4hour TF - July 6th, 2025AUDUSD 7/6/2025
AUDUSD 4hour Neutral idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bullish
4hour - Ranging
We are still technically bullish overall but we can see here on the 4hour that AU is ranging between 0.65800 & 0.65500. This is a fairly small range so we’re not that interested in taking trades while price action is bouncing between these two zones.
We’re looking for conviction above 0.65800 or below 0.65500 before we can comfortably make a move. Let’s see what both of those situations would look like:
Bullish Continuation - Most of the trend data is suggesting AU is still bullish but we would need to see a strong push above resistance around 0.65800 with a confirmed higher low above before getting into any trades. If we do see this play out I'm looking toward 0.66750 resistance as a target.
Reversal back into channel - Price action seems to be poking out of the bottom of this range but we are still not convinced just yet. For us to strongly consider this a bearish move we would like to see a retest of 0.65500 as resistance followed by bearish conviction. Look for price action to move lower toward key support areas if this happens.
Gold in buyIn Day gold in side ways but we got h&d
In point stry we got low confrm also got high in day
day OB entry is Buylimit
4hrs OB entry is selllimit
If sell limit active hold buy limit
If buy limit active before sell limit delete sell limit
Tp 20,50,100,200,500&open pips
Use risky management
Note: entry will chance on Monday
GBP/USD : First Long, Then SHORT! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 1.3625. I expect a new Fair Value Gap (FVG), formed by the recent sharp drop, to be filled soon.
The first target for this potential move is 1.3650, with the next bullish zone between 1.3670 and 1.3730.
Supply and demand zones are marked on the chart — keep a close eye on how the price reacts to these key levels!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
AUDUSD: Bullish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
The recent price action on the AUDUSD pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance, which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 0.6567
1st Support: 0.6544
1st Resistance: 0.6603
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.