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Bankofcanada

CA10Y | Rate Cuts Ahead for Canada. Watch the Banks!Back in November (2018) the yield on the 10 year Canadian treasury hit the upper boundary historical trendline and reversed sharply after briefly overshooting. Fundamentally, interest rates follow GDP figures so we can use these technicals to give us a bit of a prognoses for the financial and economic wellbeing of the country... and its not looking good. Today the central bank confirmed the fears so expect Canadian rates to drop across the board (but I expect spreads to rise between safe paper and junk). It will be interesting to watch what happens to bank stocks over the next 12-18 months as the economy slows down. Will we see a credit crunch? How will this impact the Loonie versus the US dollar? I am expecting trouble for Canadian banks as they are now dealing with a red hot housing market, the rout in commodities, and now, rising consumer delinquencies. Most importantly, bank capital (equity) will likely get squeezed, which will put tension on bank balance sheets and their eagerness to extend credit. A policy for negative interest rates is already primed and ready in the Bank of Canada's toolbox. But luckily Canada doesn't have "reserve requirements" for banks ;) ***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
TVC:CA10YShort
by Trader6127
1
USDCAD Bank Of Canada Rate - REVIEWSo BOC, despite of the positive economic data past few months, remained "cautious" about them stepping off the gas even further (aka raising interest rates). It took me several seconds to speed read the statement, digest it, intepret it and make an actionable plan based on that information. At the time, I thought it was pretty dovish, not VERY dovish.. but dovish enough. I looked at the chart price have moved considerably high as well, but based on my research events like this tend to hit 100-120 pips. So i took a "scalping" trade and made a target at 1.2800. I made 2% from this trade. *I apologize for the written mistakes I made in my CAD trading plans.
by sufiansaid
2
Sell USDCAD - Anticipating Weak US data and Hawkish CAD commentUSD has been increasing consistently over the Asian session. It's a aftermath effect as market digest more of Yellen's yesterday speech, plus there are some more US data coming up and is on average expected to be good. My statistical analysis shows that the data may not be as good as expected. Furthermore I think Governor Poloz's speech later in the day is a more important driver for the pair and my base expectation is it is going to be a hawkish comment and that may send CAD higher. Sentiment wise, retails are Long USD and Short CAD. Most severely Short CAD is USDCAD and most severely Long USD is GBPUSD. I would fade USD strength and bet on CAD strength reversal. I'm still looking for an entry, either via price action or I will enter closer to the data release if the pair pull closer to 1.24 level. My TP is after Poloz's speech, of course it depends on how hawkish he is going to be but I can use price action to take off then, interest level are 1.235 or 1.23.
Short
by vietbach1990
USDCAD will fall, oil to climb with Bank of Canada moveTalk about putting a surprise wrench in the system. I have been fairly bearish on WTIUSD - Oil . I went short just before the meeting and got out just two days ago. I was looking to go short oil again. However, oil and CAD move in lock-step, and there is a very strong correlation between interest rates and oil prices. Now that the Bank of Canada is raising interest rates, although I am still bearish on oil, I am going to have to wait to go short again. CAD will continue to rally, especially against some of the other majors such as EUR and GBP. This move takes CAD out of its deep slumber with the potential to really move. Long term, I see the DXY, US Dollar Index, heading lower. This is a very small part of that, EUR being a major part of that. This is a new shift in the FX markets.
Short
by ByDHTaylor