Beyond Technical Analysis
XAUUSD - GOLD UPDATES - May 2nd - before NFP🪙 GOLDMINDSFX | MAY 2 XAUUSD IDEAS
“Gold plays games. We play levels.”
🏛️ MACRO & POLITICAL CONTEXT
Gold is stabilizing inside a retracement phase following April's all-time high (ATH 3500). After sweeping major liquidity below 3205, we’ve seen structure shift back to bullish on the lower timeframes.
Today’s NFP may trigger sharp volatility, but we trade structure, not headlines.
China remains closed for Labor Day until May 5—reduced Asia volume. Meanwhile, Q1 data shows central bank gold accumulation slowing, adding caution to global demand outlook.
With recent lows defended and current price inside a decision zone, we wait for liquidity to declare direction—no predictions, only reactions.
🔁 MARKET STRUCTURE OVERVIEW
Confirmed CHoCH from 3205
BOS above 3233
Bullish FVGs developing
HTF still bearish under 3333
📍Live Price: 3265
📌 TECHNICAL ZONES & CONFLUENCES
🔼 BUY ZONES
🟢 Buy Zone #1: 3233–3220
15M FVG + recent impulse rejection
Entry on rejection or liquidity wick
🟢 Buy Zone #2: 3205–3190
CHoCH origin + 1H OB
Golden pocket: 0.618–0.705
Ideal continuation setup
🟢 Buy Zone #3: 3172–3160
H4 OB + EQ + deep liquidity
Final support before full structural flip
🔽 SELL ZONES
🔴 Sell Zone #1: 3284–3295
1H supply + FVG + BOS confluence
Buy-side liquidity resting above 3280
🔴 Sell Zone #2: 3325–3333
Prior rejection base + liquidity shelf
Best R:R trap zone
🔴 Sell Zone #3: 3366–3378
Final stop-hunt trap zone before reversal
Use only with rejection / PA confirmation
🧠 STRATEGY NOTES
SL adjusted to 100–150 pips according to entry zone
Price is coiling under 3265 = decision time
Liquidity is stacked above and below—wait for sweep and structure shift
We’re not here to predict. We hunt zones and execute like killers.
Confirmation before entry: BOS, CHoCH, wick traps, engulfing, rejection wicks.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
🖊️ If these insights help you refine your trading plans, give us a boost and follow GoldMindsFX on TradingView. Let's grow together!
"Gold Ain’t Done Yet – Snipers Don’t Sleep, They Wait After a clean CHoCH from 3205 and bullish NY session push, Gold is currently hovering around 3239 ahead of major macro catalysts tomorrow (May 2):
💼 News to Watch:
NFP (133K vs. 228K prev)
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings All releasing between 15:30–17:00 UTC+2, potentially fueling a volatility storm.
We remain in a broader retracement phase after April highs (ATH 3500), with price still sitting in higher timeframe discount zones and internal bullish signs building. However, supply above is unmitigated and could cap rallies.
🔁 MARKET STRUCTURE
Price is currently at 3239, just above a valid H1–H4 support zone.
Clean CHoCH confirmed from 3205
Liquidity still resting both above 3284 and below 3172
🔽 BUY SCENARIOS (From Discount + Liquidity Areas)
🟢 Buy #1 – 3205–3212
🔹 H1 CHoCH zone + internal FVG
🔹 Sell-side liquidity just swept
🔹 Entry if price retests post-NFP drop
⚠️ Ideal for short-term bounce or reaccumulation into 3260
🟢 Buy #2 – 3172–3185
🔹 H4 OB + sweep zone + EQ
🔹 Heavy stop cluster under 3200
🔹 If broken, becomes invalid → eyes move to 3120
🔸 High-risk/reward reversal zone if NFP panic spikes below
🔼 SELL SCENARIOS (From Premium + Imbalance Zones)
🔴 Sell #1 – 3284–3295
🔹 H1–H4 supply + FVG + internal BOS
🔹 Buy-side liquidity just above 3280
🔹 Classic pre-news pump & dump zone
⚠️ Watch for wicks above 3288 → sniper sell trigger
🔴 Sell #2 – 3325–3333
🔹 HTF OB shelf + imbalance + previous NY rejection
🔹 Final retail breakout trap before larger drop
🔹 Cleanest R:R setup if NFP drives price explosively upward
👀 Eyes On:
Zone Reaction Type What to Watch
3220–3235 Bounce or trap Current zone = fragile intraday demand
3284–3295 Rejection or flip Cleanest NY pump trap zone
3172–3185 Final support Below = invalidates bullish scenario short-term
3325–3333 Bull trap zone If reached = extreme precision sell only
🎯 Bias:
LTF: Bullish retrace valid above 3212
HTF: Still bearish under 3330
Macro: Wait-and-react on NFP → NO prediction
📣 Final Note for GoldMinds:
This is not a prediction plan.
It’s a reaction plan.
We mapped the real zones.
Now let the volatility reveal which liquidity gets hit first.
💬 Drop a 🧠 if you’ve evolved past “buy now / sell now” noise.
Let’s hunt like pros — not guess like rookies.
NF fluctuates in a downward trend⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced Friday that the United States has recently initiated communication through official channels, expressing interest in reopening talks on tariffs. Beijing is currently evaluating the proposal, fueling optimism that a resolution to the prolonged tariff standoff between the world’s two largest economies may be on the horizon.
This renewed hope for a breakthrough in trade negotiations helped lift the US Dollar to a three-week high on Thursday, pressuring Gold prices down toward the $3,200 mark. However, bullish momentum for the USD remains tempered as markets increasingly price in the likelihood of more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, especially with the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls data looming.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
NF news volatility is certain, with the big accumulation from last week. Gold price has confirmed the trend after breaking 3267, will fluctuate in a downtrend below 3200
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3312- 3310 SL 3317
TP1: $3290
TP2: $3280
TP3: $3270
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3175 - $3177 SL $3170
TP1: $3185
TP2: $3200
TP3: $3210
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
AI16Z Forming Cup and Handle Pattern🚨 $AI16Z Forming Cup and Handle Pattern 🚨
$AI16Z is forming a cup and handle pattern and is currently waiting for a breakout above the red resistance zone. If the breakout is confirmed, the target will be the green line level.
📈 Technical Overview:
Pattern: Cup and Handle
Resistance Zone: Red area currently being tested.
🎯 Breakout Target: Green line level upon confirmation.
gold on sell#XAUUSD have corrected back above 3267 which formation have decline from there.
Now the expected entry to sell is at 3267 which have broken now we expect the H1 to close between the rectangle to have a clear bearish range. Stop loss at 3278 target 3236
Bullish can overtake by fundamental news.
The Day Ahead - US Employment data due!Friday, May 2
Macro Data to Watch (Market Impact Potential):
US April Jobs Report – Major market mover for USD, equities, and bonds. Sets expectations for Fed policy.
US March Factory Orders – Secondary data; relevant for industrial and manufacturing sectors.
Eurozone April CPI – Key inflation data; potential EUR/USD and ECB rate path influence.
Eurozone March Unemployment Rate – Labor market context for ECB policy.
Japan April Monetary Base & Labor Data – JPY-sensitive; signals BoJ liquidity stance.
Italy Manufacturing PMI & March Unemployment – Insight into Eurozone periphery economy.
France March Budget Balance – Fiscal health check; limited direct market impact.
Central Bank Watch:
ECB Economic Bulletin – Can give insight into ECB’s inflation and growth outlook. May guide EUR direction.
Earnings (Key for Sector Moves & Index Impact):
Energy: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell – Crude oil-sensitive; big impact on energy indices.
Healthcare & Insurance: Cigna Group – Influences healthcare and insurance stocks.
Industrials/Chemicals: Eaton, BASF, DuPont – Watch for global growth signals and margins.
Financials: Apollo, ING, NatWest, Standard Chartered – Useful for readthrough on credit trends and regional banking health.
Autos: Mitsubishi, Italy new car registrations – Auto demand signals, relevant for sector ETFs.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold Triangle Pattern Breakdown? Bearish Setup in Play (XAU/USD)Gold (XAU/USD) has been trading within a tightening consolidation range over the past several sessions, characterized by lower highs and a horizontal support level. This behavior has resulted in the formation of a descending triangle, which is commonly interpreted as a bearish continuation pattern—especially when occurring in a downtrend.
Following a failed attempt to sustain above the $3,400 level, price action has steadily weakened, showing signs of bearish pressure. Recent structure breakdown below the triangle’s lower boundary suggests that the bulls are losing control, opening the door for a potential leg down.
🔍 Technical Structure Breakdown
📐 Triangle Pattern
Formation Type: Descending Triangle
Support Level: ~$3,245
Lower Highs Resistance: Downward sloping line, showing consistent bearish pressure.
Breakdown Confirmation : Clear move below triangle support, followed by a retest and rejection, confirming bearish momentum.
🔄 Key Support & Resistance
Resistance Zone: $3,300–$3,340
This area has acted as a supply zone, where sellers continue to overpower buying attempts. The price has failed multiple times to break above this region, creating a solid resistance cap.
Support Level (Previous Base of Triangle): $3,245
Price repeatedly bounced off this level before the final breakdown, making it a significant level for validation of the pattern.
Next Key Support/Target: $3,155
The projected move is derived by measuring the height of the triangle and subtracting it from the breakout point. This target also aligns with a previous demand zone, increasing its relevance.
➰ Black Curve Line (Dynamic Resistance)
This curved resistance line adds further technical weight to the downtrend. It’s a visual cue of how momentum is progressively shifting downward. The curve reflects a deceleration in bullish effort, a warning signal often preceding breakdowns.
⚙️ Trade Plan: Bearish Bias
Component Level
Entry Zone $3,265–$3,270 (retest of breakdown)
Stop Loss $3,317 (above triangle and curve line)
Take Profit $3,155
Risk-Reward Ratio : ~2.5:1 (based on entry near $3,270, SL $3,317, TP $3,155)
Setup Type : Breakdown + Retest (high-probability pattern continuation setup)
⚠️ Risk Management & Confirmation Factors
Confirmation Needed: A clean hourly candle close below the support zone, followed by rejection wicks on retest, strengthens the case for short entries.
Invalidation : A strong bullish break above $3,317 (stop level) invalidates this setup and could signal a reversal or false breakdown.
Volatility Note : Be mindful of macroeconomic events or FOMC-related headlines that may trigger increased volatility in precious metals.
📊 Conclusion & Trader Sentiment
The descending triangle in gold is a textbook example of consolidation under pressure. With sellers continuously pushing price into lower highs while buyers cling to horizontal support, the eventual outcome often favors the dominant trend—which in this case is bearish.
The current structure offers a clean technical setup for short traders with well-defined risk levels and a logical downside target. As always, ensure strict adherence to risk management principles and stay aware of market news that could impact gold volatility.
📌 Tag Ideas:
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #TrianglePattern #BreakdownSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #BearishTrade #MetalsTrading #ShortSetup #ForexIdeas
To be one of the best in trading BTC - BTC HTF HL Hypothesis Price closed below the support-level on the 1D (red line) ----> price should come back to these lows.
Price closed above the resistance-level on the 1D (green line) ----> price should SFP the lows
-----------------------------------------
I expect (or should I say: hope?) price to do a MSB here, meaning: price coming below all that structure below the green level. This will provide a short setup to the dashed line where the TP and spot limit buy orders are 'rested'.
To be one of the best in trading BTC.
USDCAD: New month, first green dayHello traders and welcome back to my channel, as always, my analysis are not a way to predict the market, but long and short are just a signal regarding the setup I'm looking for the day.
Guessing the direction is not part of my job, entering setups in line with my thesis, that's my job!
A little consideration before analysing this current week, the previous week, placed the monthly low, and retested it completing a pump and dump template. We are currently into the April monthly low and I'm looking for a long opportunity considering the potential volume trapped down low.
But what happened this week and why I'm bullish?
Monday, is the opening range of the week, weekly boundaries are now in place and short breakout traders are involved in the market.
Tuesday, initial balance, expanded the range lower, triggering again shorts in the market.
Wednesday, midpoint of the week, breakout lower again, stopping the traders long from the April monthly low and closing the day in breakout, going in consolidation into the end of the day. To me, this aspect is pretty important, triggering traders down low, with not really a strong momentum, typically gives me the signal of a potential reversal.
Thursday, pretty much Asia and London session consolidated down low around the closing price, breaking the daily high for the first time during the week (which is to me a break in structure). The day closed as first green day, which is a potential long signal, especially when appears down low.
Today, Friday, last day of the week and first day of the new month, I can see a potential dump and pump setting up for the day, but NFP is on schedule and it can mess up completely the overall setup.
How I'm gonna take this trade?
Well, first of all no action will be taken before news release at 8:30am NYT, after that, if the dump and pump is still intact during NY session, I will be willing to position myself in the market, accordingly with my entry criteria (typically bullish price action coiling for a long move).
Can the market go lower?
Absolutely yes! As I said, I do not predict any direction, but overall today I won't be interested in shorting USDCAD, because typically shoring into the weekly low, is not a very profitable trade opportunity, and I typically don't like to stuck in a trade for ages! :)
I will update anyway the intraday overview during the NY session, starting in a couple of hours!
Gianni
GOLD Formed Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern🚨 TVC:GOLD Formed Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern 🚨
TVC:GOLD has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern and appears to be making a pullback to the neckline before a potential drop. However, if the price breaks out above the right shoulder, the bearish pattern could be invalidated.
📈 Technical Overview:
Pattern: Bearish Head and Shoulders
Neckline: Current pullback area.
Bearish Confirmation: A drop below the neckline could confirm the bearish move.
Invalidation: If the price breaks out above the right shoulder, the bearish pattern may be invalidated.
dydx sell midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Two must-have charts to anticipate the altcoin seasonIntroduction: The bitcoin price has rebounded strongly since the beginning of April, against the backdrop of the trade diplomacy sequence between the USA and its main trading partners, confirmed US disinflation and a strong rebound in global M2 liquidity. On this subject of the positive correlation between the bitcoin price and global liquidity, we invite you to reread our previous analyses (in the list of analyses related to our new article of the day).
The price of BTC in US dollars has thus bounced back from US$74,000 to over US$95,000, the bullish cycle linked to the Spring 2024 halving has been relaunched, so could an altcoin season get underway in the coming weeks?
To answer this question, we suggest you keep a close eye on two key barometers: the ratio between altcoins and bitcoin, and bitcoin dominance.
1) The ratio between altcoin depth and bitcoin price
The basic principle of a mathematical ratio is as follows: if the curve is bullish, then the numerator is outperforming, and if the curve is bearish, then the denominator is outperforming (and vice versa). On the chart below, you can see a graphical analysis of the OTHERS/BITCOIN ratio, i.e. the ratio between altcoins above the top 10 in terms of market capitalization and the bitcoin price.
A bullish reversal in this ratio is needed to see the onset of an altcoin season, i.e. a market phase in which altcoins perform relatively better than BTC, which is quite rare in the current cycle. At this stage, the ratio is stabilizing in contact with a long-term uptrend line, and a potential bullish divergence is present. But there is no bullish signal yet. Until this ratio validates a bullish reversal, there is no altcoin season.
2) The underlying dynamics of bitcoin's dominance of the crypto market
Bitcoin's dominance represents the relative weight of BTC within the total market capitalization of the crypto market. The last true altcoin season dates back to the previous cycle, with BTC's dominance plummeting in the first part of 2021. There is no altcoin season as long as BTC's dominance remains on an upward trend.
Conclusion: While BTC's bullish cycle remains intact for the year 2025, altcoins remain on the back foot for the time being. We invite you to keep a close eye on the two barometers presented above, as they are the early indicators of a possible new altcoin season.
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NAS100USD: Price Respects Bearish Structure at 62% FibGreetings Traders,
In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe sustained bearish institutional order flow, and we aim to align with this directional bias by identifying high-probability selling opportunities.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
1. Retracement into Premium Resistance:
Price has recently retraced into premium pricing levels, reaching the 62% Fibonacci retracement zone—a level that often acts as dynamic resistance. This retracement also aligned with a bearish breaker block, confirming institutional resistance at that level. The market has since shown signs of rejection, reinforcing the bearish narrative.
2. Emergence of Fair Value Gap (FVG) as a Key Resistance Array:
Following the rejection, a new FVG has formed, acting as a potential short-term resistance zone. This area provides a refined point of interest where institutions may look to re-engage in selling activity. The alignment of the FVG with previous resistance adds further confluence to the bearish setup.
TRADING PLAN:
We will monitor the newly formed FVG zone for signs of bearish confirmation. Upon confirmation, the plan is to execute short positions targeting liquidity pools in discounted price zones, in line with institutional price delivery patterns.
Remain focused, wait for confirmation, and make sure this idea aligns with your overall trading plan.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
This is a 4H chart of EUR/USD with multiple SMC annotations.1. Chart Reading According to SMC
Structure Analysis:
• Major BOS: Confirmed bullish structure around April 10 after the rally from FVG.
• Minor BOS & OBs: Price formed lower highs and lower lows near the 1.1450–1.1500 zone.
• Major CHoCH (Change of Character): Marked clearly around the last day low, confirming shift
to bearish structure.
• Liquidity Sweeps: Price swept the daily low and reacted — indicating smart money
accumulation at a key level.
Key SMC Zones:
• OB (Bearish): 1.1380–1.1430 zone — price likely to reject here.
• OB (Bullish): ~1.1265–1.1300 (reacted twice).
• FVG: Older demand imbalance marked earlier in the rally (around 1.0940–1.1000).
⸻
2. Marked Points in Chart
• Major BoS / CHoCH: Structural shifts defining directional bias.
• D1 TP (1.1300): A take-profit level around the midpoint of a larger daily leg.
• Last Day High / Low: Defined for internal liquidity targeting.
• OBs & Liquidity Zones: Precisely mapped for institutional activity clues.
⸻
3. Swing High & Low of the Day
• Swing High: 1.13420 (Last day high zone).
• Swing Low: 1.12652 (Last day low, also tapped for liquidity sweep).
These are intraday reference points for short-term setups.
⸻
4. Trade Direction
• Current HTF Bias: Bearish (post major CHoCH & OB rejections).
• However, price is currently reacting from a demand zone near 1.1265.
• Short-Term Direction: Bullish retracement toward 1.1340–1.1380, possibly to mitigate OB or
FVG.
⸻
5. Best Risk-Reward Setup
Setup: Buy the retracement from demand (reactive long) .
• Entry: 1.1270–1.1285 (OB demand + liquidity sweep)
• SL: Below 1.1260
• TP1: 1.1340 (last day high)
• TP2: 1.1380 (upper OB/fill FVG)
• RRR:
• TP1: ~1:3
• TP2: ~1:5
OR
Setup: Wait for price to reach OB at 1.1380, then go short.
• Entry: 1.1380–1.1400
• SL: 1.1430 (above OB)
• TP1: 1.1300 (internal structure)
• TP2: 1.1265 (retest demand)
• RRR: ~1:4
⸻
6. Trade Setups for Multiple Timeframes
5-Minute Setup (Refined Entry within OB):
• Look for CHoCH or internal FVG near 1.1270–1.1285 (bullish confirmation).
• Entry after candle body closes above last bearish candle.
• SL: Below 1.1260
• TP: 1.1340 (intraday high).
1H Setup:
• Wait for price to retrace and form FVG or CHoCH inside 1.1265–1.1280.
• Enter long on bullish engulfing/OB mitigation.
• TP: 1.1340–1.1380
• SL: Below OB.
4H Setup:
• Trend is bearish, but bullish pullback expected.
• Either take the long into OB or wait to short at 1.1380.
⸻
7. CRT Model Evaluation
• C – Context: Market just made a major CHoCH, but reacted from a demand OB with a liquidity
sweep.
• R – Retracement: Price is retracing into premium zones — near 50% of the daily range.
• T – Trend Continuation: Expect bearish continuation from the 1.1380 zone, unless price breaks
structure.
⸻
Conclusion
• Short-Term Bias: Bullish retracement toward 1.1340–1.1380.
• Swing Bias: Bearish from OB rejections and structural breaks.
• Best Setup Now: Long from 1.1270–1.1280 → TP 1.1340–1.1380.
• Later Opportunity: Short from 1.1380 → TP back toward 1.1265.
GBPUSD Pair: Bullish Carry Trade Formations from AsiaBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst, ActivTrades
The pair advanced throughout the Asian session, pushing the dollar higher against the pound sterling. A combination of discouraging UK economic data and persistent signs of macro weakness—despite mixed JOLTS employment figures in a clearly disinflationary U.S. economy—could pave the way for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Although UK PMI data beat expectations at 45.4 points last month and bank lending to individuals has been rising, the growth in money supply highlights increased household indebtedness against a backdrop of fewer mortgage approvals. Today’s dollar strength may be driven by this dovish monetary bias.
Key indicators have yet to be released, but the scheduled speech by New York Fed President John Williams could offer clues about the Fed’s cut timeline. The recent dollar weakness aligns with market pricing for up to four 25-basis-point rate cuts before year-end.
The latest range suggests carry-trade movements between the April 28 high at $1.34432 and today’s support zone around $1.32597. The point of control (POC) sits just above that support and below the current price. Delta zones mark strong resistance near $1.33271, a level tested on four previous occasions. The RSI rests in light oversold territory at 49.27%, having recovered from 24–26% in yesterday’s session. It’s highly likely the dollar will see pronounced moves today following the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, given the market’s bearish expectations and rumors of potential U.S. “stagflation.”
The pound remains on the front foot against the dollar, supported by a macro-technical backdrop that favors further gains—provided no surprises emerge from U.S. data. The immediate focus is on employment figures and monetary policy signals.
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Short-term downtrend has formed 🔔🔔🔔 Gold news:
➡️ The US dollar continues to rebound following recent remarks from President Donald Trump, who stated that he has "potential" trade agreements with India, South Korea, and Japan, and expressed high confidence in reaching a deal with China.
➡️ Meanwhile, gold prices have been declining for the third consecutive day as of early Thursday, nearing a two-week low. Trade-related headlines have once again overshadowed US economic data, significantly impacting the traditional safe-haven appeal of gold.
Personal opinion:
➡️ Negative US fundamentals cannot help gold rise after positive signals from the trade war are still the decisive factor. Gold has broken the 3265 zone and turned into a short-term downtrend.
➡️ Analysis based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with RSI to come up with a suitable strategy
Personal plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy Gold 3191 - 3194
❌SL: 3186 | ✅TP: 3199 - 3205 – 3210
👉Sell Gold 3262 - 3265
❌SL: 3270 | ✅TP: 3257 - 3251 – 3245
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰