Beyond Technical Analysis
Trend reversal in GoldThe head and shoulder break to the downside is nearly developed. I think the Trend has reversed, pending the macro trade and geopolitical environment, which is a big risk to the "trend reversal" call.
Institutions are no longer interested in Gold and are moving on to other assets. Retail hasn't realized yet and is keeping hope alive.
If it breaks 3,200 to the downside, watch out below (unless a geopolitical/trade event snaps it back).
[ TimeLine ] Gold 5-6 May 2025📅 Today is Friday, May 2, 2025
📌 Upcoming Signal Dates:
May 5, 2025 (Monday) or
May 5 & 6, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday)
🧠 Trading Plan & Notes:
✅ Gold has undergone a significant reversal of over 2000 pips, from its ATH of 3500 down to 3200
⚠️ If the upcoming Hi-Lo range is wide, consider reversal entries or setups based on Fibonacci retracement levels
✅ I will personally be trading both signals as part of my research and ongoing strategy
⚠️ If you're risk-averse or uncertain, it’s okay to skip the May 5–6 signals
📋 Execution Plan:
🔹 Wait for the price range from the selected candles to fully form (marked by green lines on the chart)
🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, including a 60-pip buffer
🔹 If SL is hit, cut/switch and double the position on the next valid setup for potential recovery
📉📈 Chart Reference:
🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL: TV/x/C5zZyXar/
[ TimeLine ] Gold 28-29 April 2025Hello everyone,
📅 Today is Friday, April 25, 2025
I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as reference points for potential trade entries:
📌 April 28, 2025 (Monday)
📌 April 28 & 29, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday)
🧠 Trading Plan & Notes:
✅ Gold has broken its ATH multiple times over the past two weeks—volatility remains high
✅ Gold has significant reversal more than 2000pips from its ATH 3500 to 3260
⚠️ If the formed range is big, reversal entries or trades based on Fibonacci levels may be more appropriate
✅ I will personally trade both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy
⚠️ If you're unsure or risk-averse, consider skipping April 28 & 29 signal
📋 Execution Plan:
🔹 Wait for the price range from the candles above to fully form (marked with green lines)
🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer
🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), switch direction and double the position size on the next valid entry for potential recovery
📉📈 Chart Reference:
🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL : TV/x/9932ommw/
NEIROUSDT | Long | Technical Setup| (May 2025)NEIROUSDT | Long | Technical Setup in Accumulation Zone | (May 2025)
1️⃣ Quick Insight:
NEIROUSDT has been in a long-term downtrend and hasn’t shown much fundamental strength or interest. Still, from a technical point of view, it's forming a potential wedge or accumulation structure that could offer some upside.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: Based on current structure, a small position setup is forming
Stop Loss / Take Profits: 📉 Please refer to chart for exact SL and TP levels
This will be a light position—not expecting fireworks, just playing the potential technical rebound.
3️⃣ Key Notes:
This is a speculative play with limited confirmation from fundamentals or money flow. The market hasn’t shown strong interest in NEIRO recently, but if buyers do step in, it could push the price toward the upper end of the current pattern. If not, that’s fine too—this setup is low-conviction and sized accordingly. There’s no strong base, but the shape of the current structure gives a reason to watch.
4️⃣ Follow-up:
If price action confirms further, I may scale or update this idea. Otherwise, it's just a watch-and-react plan.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
MSFT HAGIA SOPHIA! Self-explanatory, I think. Never trust motivational moves! They fade faster than a New Year's resolution! Yet we all fall for it all the time. The difference is we don't bet our hard-earned money every time we get motivated to learn our lesson after about the fifth or sixth or seventh... time!
For some reason, in trading, it's different; most don't even learn after the hundredth time! I am guessing it has something to do with the herd mentality. Others are doing it so its okay for me to lose my ass with them for the one hundredth and one time chasing!!
If I haven't convinced you yet, NOT to do it. Try thinking of it like this. There are many better trades out there to buy!
Hagia Sophia is not there to make you rich! It is there to humble you!
Click boost like and subscribe! l3ts get to 5,000 followers! ))
OPEC at a turning point: what’s next for oil? All eyes are on OPEC ahead of its May 5 meeting as it faces pressure from falling prices, weak demand, and internal rifts.
While some expect a pause in output hikes, the consensus points to continued increases. The group’s decision will be key in shaping oil market dynamics amid trade tensions and fragile global growth.
APRIL PRICE ACTION: TARIFFS, TRUMP, AND TURBULENCE
April witnessed WTI crude oil futures plummeting by 18.6%, marking its sharpest monthly decline since November 2021, as U.S. tariffs and OPEC+ supply hikes dragged prices.
President Trump’s April 2 announcement of 10% baseline tariffs on all imports, with elevated duties targeting China and others, triggered fears of a global trade slowdown. Additionally, China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods only intensified demand concerns.
OPEC+ exacerbated the selloff by boosting output by 138,000 bpd in April, its first production hike since 2022. The group had initially planned for gradual monthly increases of 135,000 bpd, but the higher-than-expected increase caught the market off guard, intensifying downward pressure on prices.
The cartel followed up with an announcement that it would hike output in May by 411,000 bpd. The accelerated pace of production increases is widely seen as politically motivated, reflecting pressure to align with U.S. interests amid growing geopolitical and economic tensions.
OUTPUT HIKES LOOM AMID POLITICAL TENSIONS AND INTERNAL RIFTS
OPEC+ faces growing pressure to raise output, despite weak demand. Political factors, internal pressure from key members, and a desire to protect market share are driving this shift.
Disagreements within the group are mounting. Kazakhstan, for example, says it can’t cut production and will prioritize domestic needs, continuing to exceed its target. In March, the UAE, Iraq, and Nigeria also pumped above quotas and are pushing for higher limits to support their budgets.
Source: OPEC and IEA
Saudi Arabia appears less willing to support prices with further cuts. Reuters reports the kingdom is prepared to tolerate lower prices to defend market share.
Rising domestic oil use from May to September, due to higher electricity demand, also supports more output.
OPEC+ is also under political pressure to boost output, with analysts suggesting Saudi Arabia and others may fast-track supply hikes at the May 5 meeting to ensure oil doesn’t become a flashpoint ahead of Trump’s upcoming visit to the Gulf.
OIL MARKET STRUGGLES WITH TWIN HEADWINDS: WEAK DEMAND AND RISING OPEC+ SUPPLY
OPEC has cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 10.3% to 1.3 million bpd and trimmed its 2026 outlook by 10.5% to 1.28 million bpd, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs.
Source: OPEC , EIA , and IEA
The EIA and IEA echoed this downgrade, reinforcing expectations of prolonged price pressure amid trade tensions and rising supply.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Economic data from major consumers deepens the bearish tone. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 2025, its first decline since 2022, as firms rushed imports ahead of tariffs, disrupting trade flows. China’s April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, marking its lowest since 2023 despite stimulus measures.
The trade tensions between the U.S. and China disrupt supply chains and increase costs, while slower economic growth in key regions curtails fuel consumption.
With global growth cooling and OPEC+ accelerating output, the oil market now faces a dual challenge: softening demand and swelling supply. The result is a volatile outlook skewed toward persistent oversupply.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
With OPEC+ likely to uphold or accelerate output hikes at the May 5 meeting due to the reasons stated above, WTI remains vulnerable.
Notably, WTI’s implied volatility remains near its YTD highs, and the skew stays deep in negative territory at 5.6, signalling stronger demand for downside protection over upside exposure.
Source: CME CVOL
The 21-day MA remains above the 9-day MA, indicating sustained bearish pressure, while the MACD continues to trend lower despite the May 1 price rebound.
RSI hovers in neutral territory but below the midpoint, signalling weakening bullish conviction.
All these indicators point to fading bullish momentum and sustained downside pressure.
Overall, bearish technicals, persistent oversupply risk, and soft economic data from the U.S., China, and Europe support a short-term bearish view.
Source: CME QuikStrike
With OPEC’s meeting set for 05 May, investors may explore the 05/May ML1K5 Monday weekly options.
This paper posits a Bearish Put Spread using weekly WTI options expiring on 05/May, offering defined risk and reward in a directional play with a 1.1x reward-to-risk ratio.
The long put at USD 61/barrel, and the short put at USD 57/barrel; this sets a breakeven at USD 59.09/barrel. The trade costs a net premium of USD 1.91/barrel (USD 1,910/contract)
The position yields a maximum profit of USD 2.09/barrel (USD 2,090/contract) if WTI settles below USD 57/barrel, and a maximum loss of USD 1.91/barrel (USD 1,910/contract) if it closes above USD 61/barrel.
The chart above was created using CME Group’s QuikStrike Strategy Simulator , which allows for precise modeling and clear visualization of trading strategies under different market conditions.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?At the moment, we’re inside a broad consolidation range between 109,951 and 74,456, with the midpoint at 92,204. Based on this, we can see that price is currently trading near the upper boundary of the range — showing strength and aiming for a potential breakout toward a new ATH. Additionally, price remains above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which reinforces the bullish outlook. We’re also testing the upper band of VWAP, acting as resistance.
Personally, I’d prefer to short — but right now it’s simply not the time. If we try to assess the chart objectively, this is clearly a long setup with a target above 110,000. As for potential shorts: they only make sense if price drops below the midpoint — under 92,204. If we start to break down from that zone, then selling becomes viable, with the first target around 74,456 or even lower. Because in that case, price likely won’t stop at 74,456 — it may push significantly deeper.
Opening (IRA): SPY July 18th 495 Short Put... for a 5.13 credit.
Comments: Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Max Profit: 5.13
ROC at Max as a Function of Strike Price: 1.04%
Will generally look to roll up if the short put is in profit at 45 DTE or greater, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on at the June 513's and July 495's, and/or consider a "window dressing" roll (i.e., a roll down to a strike that is paying about the same in credit) to milk the last drops out of the position.
USDCAD - pay attention to what this market is telling youI like what this chart is telling me, do you see the same?
I took a short when that trend line got retested. The USD may be giving contradictory signals in different pairs, but for me this one is clear as day.
I hope it works out as I think!!
This is not a trade recommendation; it’s merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
NZDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.59650 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.59650 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
2 Mai - Gold targeting 3318 ?💰 Gold on the Move – Bearish or Bullish? 🤔
Hey traders! 👋
On the 1H chart, Gold was chillin’ on a trendline starting from $3386 on Wed, Apr 23, climbing up till $3353 on Mon, Apr 28 📈. But then... it changed direction! 😬
Starting Wed, Apr 30, we saw a shift to a lower trendline at $3319, and today it’s trying to climb above $3300 🔄.
📉 Bearish vibes? We're eyeing a dip toward $3279.
📈 Bullish comeback? If Gold breaks above $3279, we might see some real momentum! 🚀
👉 What’s your take? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
XAUUSD - GOLD UPDATES - May 2nd - before NFP🪙 GOLDMINDSFX | MAY 2 XAUUSD IDEAS
“Gold plays games. We play levels.”
🏛️ MACRO & POLITICAL CONTEXT
Gold is stabilizing inside a retracement phase following April's all-time high (ATH 3500). After sweeping major liquidity below 3205, we’ve seen structure shift back to bullish on the lower timeframes.
Today’s NFP may trigger sharp volatility, but we trade structure, not headlines.
China remains closed for Labor Day until May 5—reduced Asia volume. Meanwhile, Q1 data shows central bank gold accumulation slowing, adding caution to global demand outlook.
With recent lows defended and current price inside a decision zone, we wait for liquidity to declare direction—no predictions, only reactions.
🔁 MARKET STRUCTURE OVERVIEW
Confirmed CHoCH from 3205
BOS above 3233
Bullish FVGs developing
HTF still bearish under 3333
📍Live Price: 3265
📌 TECHNICAL ZONES & CONFLUENCES
🔼 BUY ZONES
🟢 Buy Zone #1: 3233–3220
15M FVG + recent impulse rejection
Entry on rejection or liquidity wick
🟢 Buy Zone #2: 3205–3190
CHoCH origin + 1H OB
Golden pocket: 0.618–0.705
Ideal continuation setup
🟢 Buy Zone #3: 3172–3160
H4 OB + EQ + deep liquidity
Final support before full structural flip
🔽 SELL ZONES
🔴 Sell Zone #1: 3284–3295
1H supply + FVG + BOS confluence
Buy-side liquidity resting above 3280
🔴 Sell Zone #2: 3325–3333
Prior rejection base + liquidity shelf
Best R:R trap zone
🔴 Sell Zone #3: 3366–3378
Final stop-hunt trap zone before reversal
Use only with rejection / PA confirmation
🧠 STRATEGY NOTES
SL adjusted to 100–150 pips according to entry zone
Price is coiling under 3265 = decision time
Liquidity is stacked above and below—wait for sweep and structure shift
We’re not here to predict. We hunt zones and execute like killers.
Confirmation before entry: BOS, CHoCH, wick traps, engulfing, rejection wicks.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
🖊️ If these insights help you refine your trading plans, give us a boost and follow GoldMindsFX on TradingView. Let's grow together!
"Gold Ain’t Done Yet – Snipers Don’t Sleep, They Wait After a clean CHoCH from 3205 and bullish NY session push, Gold is currently hovering around 3239 ahead of major macro catalysts tomorrow (May 2):
💼 News to Watch:
NFP (133K vs. 228K prev)
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings All releasing between 15:30–17:00 UTC+2, potentially fueling a volatility storm.
We remain in a broader retracement phase after April highs (ATH 3500), with price still sitting in higher timeframe discount zones and internal bullish signs building. However, supply above is unmitigated and could cap rallies.
🔁 MARKET STRUCTURE
Price is currently at 3239, just above a valid H1–H4 support zone.
Clean CHoCH confirmed from 3205
Liquidity still resting both above 3284 and below 3172
🔽 BUY SCENARIOS (From Discount + Liquidity Areas)
🟢 Buy #1 – 3205–3212
🔹 H1 CHoCH zone + internal FVG
🔹 Sell-side liquidity just swept
🔹 Entry if price retests post-NFP drop
⚠️ Ideal for short-term bounce or reaccumulation into 3260
🟢 Buy #2 – 3172–3185
🔹 H4 OB + sweep zone + EQ
🔹 Heavy stop cluster under 3200
🔹 If broken, becomes invalid → eyes move to 3120
🔸 High-risk/reward reversal zone if NFP panic spikes below
🔼 SELL SCENARIOS (From Premium + Imbalance Zones)
🔴 Sell #1 – 3284–3295
🔹 H1–H4 supply + FVG + internal BOS
🔹 Buy-side liquidity just above 3280
🔹 Classic pre-news pump & dump zone
⚠️ Watch for wicks above 3288 → sniper sell trigger
🔴 Sell #2 – 3325–3333
🔹 HTF OB shelf + imbalance + previous NY rejection
🔹 Final retail breakout trap before larger drop
🔹 Cleanest R:R setup if NFP drives price explosively upward
👀 Eyes On:
Zone Reaction Type What to Watch
3220–3235 Bounce or trap Current zone = fragile intraday demand
3284–3295 Rejection or flip Cleanest NY pump trap zone
3172–3185 Final support Below = invalidates bullish scenario short-term
3325–3333 Bull trap zone If reached = extreme precision sell only
🎯 Bias:
LTF: Bullish retrace valid above 3212
HTF: Still bearish under 3330
Macro: Wait-and-react on NFP → NO prediction
📣 Final Note for GoldMinds:
This is not a prediction plan.
It’s a reaction plan.
We mapped the real zones.
Now let the volatility reveal which liquidity gets hit first.
💬 Drop a 🧠 if you’ve evolved past “buy now / sell now” noise.
Let’s hunt like pros — not guess like rookies.
NF fluctuates in a downward trend⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced Friday that the United States has recently initiated communication through official channels, expressing interest in reopening talks on tariffs. Beijing is currently evaluating the proposal, fueling optimism that a resolution to the prolonged tariff standoff between the world’s two largest economies may be on the horizon.
This renewed hope for a breakthrough in trade negotiations helped lift the US Dollar to a three-week high on Thursday, pressuring Gold prices down toward the $3,200 mark. However, bullish momentum for the USD remains tempered as markets increasingly price in the likelihood of more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, especially with the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls data looming.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
NF news volatility is certain, with the big accumulation from last week. Gold price has confirmed the trend after breaking 3267, will fluctuate in a downtrend below 3200
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3312- 3310 SL 3317
TP1: $3290
TP2: $3280
TP3: $3270
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3175 - $3177 SL $3170
TP1: $3185
TP2: $3200
TP3: $3210
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
AI16Z Forming Cup and Handle Pattern🚨 $AI16Z Forming Cup and Handle Pattern 🚨
$AI16Z is forming a cup and handle pattern and is currently waiting for a breakout above the red resistance zone. If the breakout is confirmed, the target will be the green line level.
📈 Technical Overview:
Pattern: Cup and Handle
Resistance Zone: Red area currently being tested.
🎯 Breakout Target: Green line level upon confirmation.
gold on sell#XAUUSD have corrected back above 3267 which formation have decline from there.
Now the expected entry to sell is at 3267 which have broken now we expect the H1 to close between the rectangle to have a clear bearish range. Stop loss at 3278 target 3236
Bullish can overtake by fundamental news.
The Day Ahead - US Employment data due!Friday, May 2
Macro Data to Watch (Market Impact Potential):
US April Jobs Report – Major market mover for USD, equities, and bonds. Sets expectations for Fed policy.
US March Factory Orders – Secondary data; relevant for industrial and manufacturing sectors.
Eurozone April CPI – Key inflation data; potential EUR/USD and ECB rate path influence.
Eurozone March Unemployment Rate – Labor market context for ECB policy.
Japan April Monetary Base & Labor Data – JPY-sensitive; signals BoJ liquidity stance.
Italy Manufacturing PMI & March Unemployment – Insight into Eurozone periphery economy.
France March Budget Balance – Fiscal health check; limited direct market impact.
Central Bank Watch:
ECB Economic Bulletin – Can give insight into ECB’s inflation and growth outlook. May guide EUR direction.
Earnings (Key for Sector Moves & Index Impact):
Energy: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell – Crude oil-sensitive; big impact on energy indices.
Healthcare & Insurance: Cigna Group – Influences healthcare and insurance stocks.
Industrials/Chemicals: Eaton, BASF, DuPont – Watch for global growth signals and margins.
Financials: Apollo, ING, NatWest, Standard Chartered – Useful for readthrough on credit trends and regional banking health.
Autos: Mitsubishi, Italy new car registrations – Auto demand signals, relevant for sector ETFs.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.