Bitcoin Analysis (4H)Bitcoin has lost its trendline and appears to have accumulated significant sell orders near the top.
The zone between $96K and $100K could act as the main supply area, potentially pushing the price down to at least $88K.
Targets are clearly marked on the chart.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level would invalidate this outlook.
Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting
Comment if you have any questions
thank you
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Only Thursday was bullish and right now market is trying to decide if this breakout was legit or not. If bulls can stay above 95000, the breakout above has a higher chance of being succesful. Below 94000 it has likely failed and I favor the bears for more downside.
current market cycle: weekly chart says continuation of the bull trend but i highly doubt it. much more likely we are in a big trading range 73000 - 110000
key levels: 85k - 100k (if bears somehow manage to get below 85k again, we test 80k next)
bull case: Bulls want this breakout to be the start of the third leg up for 100000. That’s all there really is to it. Bull trends need higher lows and higher highs and if bulls fail to prevent the market from falling below the breakout bar under 94000, this was likely a bull trap.
Invalidation is below 94000.
bear case: Bears want a trading range 70000 - 98000 and not let market hit 100000 again because that would for sure attract more degenerates again. Bears really don’t have much here until they print a decent bear bar that gets below 94000. This looks as bullish as can be and above 98000 I expect 100k to be hit.
Invalidation is above 101k.
short term: Neutral. Below 94000 it’s likely a failed breakout and above 97000 we can expect 100000 or more. Above 100000 there would not be a reason not to go for a new ath, same as for other markets like dax.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-13: Bear targets for this year are met. Now we likely range before we get new impulse to either side. I wait for market reaction around 100000 before I write more here. For now my assumption is still that this will be a trading range 73000 - 100000 for longer than a retest or even new highs.
BTC breaks out - Can it sustain the bullish momentum?Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown notable strength, forming an ascending triangle pattern, a typically bullish structure that often resolves to the upside. True to form, BTC has now broken out above the triangle's resistance, pushing higher with strong momentum.
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Price target ascending triangle
This breakout sets a technical price target above $98,000, suggesting there’s still significant upside potential if the pattern plays out fully. However, the rally is now approaching a critical test.
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Golden Pocket + POC
BTC is currently moving into a zone of strong resistance, both the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement level and the Point of Control (POC) from recent months converge in this area. These technical levels often act as magnets for price and can serve as significant barriers, potentially leading to a pullback or consolidation.
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Stochastic RSI
Adding to the caution, the daily Stochastic RSI remains in overbought territory, where it has lingered for an extended period. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, it does suggest that a corrective move could be on the horizon.
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Conclusion
Still, there's a chance BTC could first push toward the psychologically significant $100K level before any major retracement occurs. Traders should keep a close eye on how BTC behaves around this key resistance area, confirmation or rejection here will likely shape the next major move.
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Will risk-on sentiment continue to fuel Bitcoin's rally?
President Trump stated that he is open to reducing tariffs on China and that negotiations with key partner countries are progressing smoothly. However, he also revealed via social media that he has ordered a 100% tariff on certain foreign-produced films, signaling that tariff risks remain.
The ISM Services PMI for April came in at 51.6. New orders rose to 52.3, marking the highest level this year, while prices paid continued to climb for a fifth consecutive month, reaching the highest level since January 2023.
BTCUSD is consolidating between the two EMAs after breaking below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The price is awaiting a fresh trigger to resume its uptrend. If BTCUSD falls below the EMA78, the price may decline further toward the support at 91000. Conversely, if BTCUSD re-enters the ascending channel, the price could gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 98500.
Starknet - Incoming Reversal?Starknet has been on a consistent downtrend. Its about time we finish this wave structure where we will see an impulse finish of Wave c.
Looking for the 5th wave to finish to sweep the low. However, the pullback seems very deep in that micro structure so its also likely we don't get that sweep. As long as we close below that wick from the green box and we can consider 5th wave to be done.
BTC (Y25.P2.E1) Have 2 scenariosHi Traders,
I won't use words as the charts do the job if you can read charts.
Scenario #1, price moves up from here
Scenario #2, price sweeps the lows for liquidity. A fractal is aligned with it.
I'm looking to enter the trade big at the lows with Avwap, EMAs and liquidity making a strong case.
Here are short term levels based on our approach.
All the best,
Regards,
S.SAri
Bitcoin Technical AnalysisFenzoFx— Bitcoin began consolidating after peaking at $98,000, dipping toward the $93,565 support and now trading slightly above it. The Stochastic Oscillator sits below 25, suggesting BTC is oversold and may rebound.
Immediate support lies at $92,565. If this level holds, the uptrend could resume, targeting $98,000, with potential to push toward the $99,560 resistance if buying pressure increases.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below $91,720 would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially extending the decline to $88,830.
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Market Overview (May 5, 2025)
📊 Key Metrics
1. Funding Rate: -0.0024% (on Binance)
— traders are paying to hold short positions, signaling bearish pressure
2. Open Interest (OI): $27.5B, down –3.13% in 24h
— positions are closing, possibly due to liquidations or profit-taking
3. ETF Inflows: +$674.9M (on May 2)
— strong institutional demand, especially into BlackRock’s IBIT
4. Fear & Greed Index: 52 (Neutral)
— sentiment has stabilized after a period of greed
⸻
📈 Market Movement Probability
• Upward: 55%
(potential short squeeze fueled by ETF inflows)
• Downward: 45%
(OI is dropping, market losing momentum)
⸻
Disclaimer: This information is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions.
AI BTC Prediction Next 24–48 Hours !May 3, 2025, 11:13 pm. BTC/USD. BTC/USD Trading Plan
Timeframe: Next 24–48 Hours
Long Scenario
- Entry: 96,550 (confirmed close above 96,500 with rising volume + RSI > 50).
- SL: 95,700 (below immediate support 95,800).
- TP: 96,800 (below resistance 97,000).
- Trailing Stop: 1.5x ATR (~162 pips) after surpassing 96,800.
- Confirmation: MACD histogram reversal + Bollinger Band breakout above midline.
Short Scenario
- Entry: 95,750 (confirmed close below 95,800 with rising volume + RSI < 40).
- SL: 96,600 (above resistance 96,500).
- TP: 95,200 (above support 95,000).
- Trailing Stop: 1x ATR (~108 pips) after breaking 95,500.
- Confirmation: Supertrend remains bearish + EMA crossover downward.
Strategy $MSTR hits resistance, what will it do?
NASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. It is up about 65% from the low we set a few months ago. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350.
I personally know someone who played with fire by buying NASDAQ:MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.
MSTR (Strategy) coming up to $395, the smaller resistance levelNASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350
I personally know someone who played with fire by buying MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.
BTC Outlook May 2025CRYPTO:BTCUSD
Bitcoin Nears Major Resistance – What Comes Next?
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $96,000, climbing steadily as it approaches what I believe is a critical resistance zone between $98,000 and $102,000. This area has the potential to act as a major turning point.
If Bitcoin can break through and hold above the $102,000 level, I believe there's a strong chance we see continued momentum pushing the price toward $120,000 or even higher. However, if Bitcoin is rejected at this resistance zone, it could mark the beginning of a retracement, with the next major support area appearing around the $71,000 level.
This zone of resistance is, in my view, one of the most important to watch in the current cycle. Whether Bitcoin can establish new support above it—or get turned away—could shape the trajectory for the rest of the year.
Previous Bitcoin Outlook
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are my personal opinions and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, and you should always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Entry and exit strategy for Bitcoin pt4Hello future crypto-millionaires :-)
So far my analysis seems to be quite accurate and the monthly RSI (data not shown) hit an overbought level EXXAAACCTLY as in August/September 2017 (orange line). If the pattern and retracement (-40%) will repeat itself (blue lines in the right top) then we should enter a surprising but short-term correction (6-8 weeks) with strong support at $39/41k.
According to BTC.D, dominance is falling sharply and will keep going down for another few weeks, in the meantime ETH and other altcoins should pump up... STRONK!
Seems like a huge amount of good altcoin projects e.g. BNB will irreversibly steal Bitcoins Dominance forever. In my opinion, the new BTC.D high will be in a range of 55% after this supercycle will end up in autumn/winter 2021.
Part 3
Part 2
Part 1
Please check my other plots, including the prediction of BNBUSD based on long-term wave/fractals.
Entry and exit strategy for Bitcoin pt3Hello again, I know that some of you are not in favour of Pi Cycle Top Indicator or even RSI but seems like there is too many signals at once indicating intermediate TOP in the price of Bitcoin!
According to MACD etc. this price pullback may be... brutal and will scare many, many early investors! I see price moving down to 40k or even lower so, either you HODL or sell now and re-buy when the price will be closer to support levels - two scenarios visible on the plot. In the long term perspective, we are in the middle of a bull run (according to many Glassnode indicators) so, don't let this pullback shake you off!
Entry and exit strategy for Bitcoin pt2 - Pi Cycle Top crossed, published early April
Entry and exit strategy for Bitcoin pt1 - first RSI bubble is exactly at the point of dotted line, published in late February
Bitcoin: Strong Support —Back To BasicsNotice the black lines on this chart...
The lower line marks the January 2025 wick low.
The second line, a bit higher, matches the December-November 2024 wick low.
Last week Bitcoin smashed this resistance range and is now safely trading above it. The break of this support turned resistance turned once more support is a major bullish development.
The action as it is happening now on the weekly timeframe puts Bitcoin back in the same conditions as before the March 2025 breakdown.
Notice the entire period after the March 2025 breakdown and April recovery, this is a classic stop-loss hunt event, liquidity hunt or bear-trap. The action moved below support just to quickly recover.
This can also be read as a "failed signal."
The bears attempted to move the market lower but failed. A failed signal turns into a strong signal contrary to the initial direction of the move. So if this is a failed bearish signal it translate from a TA perspective into a strong bullish signal. This works because it reveals a double-bullish dynamic. The failed bearish continuation after breakdown reveals bears weakness, the successful recovery reveals bullish strength; two points for the bulls.
Now, the active weekly candle/session did not wick lower to test the "strong support" price range, between $89,250 and $90,500, black lines on the chart, no, instead the action is happening safely above this range.
Bitcoin is super strong right now. Strong support.
If Bitcoin were to move lower and challenge this support zone, this would become a unique opportunity, a very strong opportunity, an amazing opportunity to buy LONG with high leverage or simply accumulate more if you are spot.
If it drops, awesome, a unique buy opportunity.
If it continues higher right away we are good because Bitcoin has been green four weeks straight.
It doesn't get any better and we have the support of the entire Altcoins market which is starting to heat up. I told you we would see slow steady growth, it doesn't happen in a day because are in a long-term bullish phase but oh boy, oh boy, oh girl oh boy it will grow.
By late May 2025, everything will be green 2-3 levels up. That is, minimum 200%-300% up and that is just the start. You've been warned.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Feel free to follow if you enjoy the content.
Namaste.
Bitcoin's Weekly MACD & RSI —Back To Basics (Part 1)We looked at Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe and mentioned the rare Michael Saylor 4 weeks green bullish signal. But what about the MACD and RSI? What are these indicators currently saying?
Let's dive deep into these two and see what we can find.
First, Bitcoin's weekly RSI.
1) Here we have first what is called a hidden bullish divergence. The RSI hit a lower low in March 2025 compared to September 2024, but Bitcoin is currently trading within a strong higher low (March/April 2025 vs September 2024). This is an interesting signal.
2) The same RSI support that was activated in September 2023 and September 2024 worked in March 2025. Once this level was activated—blue dotted line on the chart—the RSI started to move upward.
Each time this support is activated Bitcoin goes on a major bullish wave. In September 2023 Bitcoin started a major rise from 20 something toward 70K+. In September 2024 Bitcoin started a major advance from 60 something toward 110K.
3) A triple bottom. Another signal related to this same support level is a triple bottom. It was challenged three times and holds. In 2025, this support zone was pierced briefly and then the RSI started growing. This makes the reversal signal an even stronger one.
Bitcoin doubled in 2024 from this RSI support and more than triple in 2023. So this time around we can count on a double minimum but can be a triple or more. If it increases each time, first a double, then a triple and then a quadruple.
The next signal is Bitcoin's weekly RSI broken downtrend and bullish reading:
1) The downtrend has been broken on the RSI, pretty simple. Here depicted with blue lines. Needless to say, when the downtrend breaks the RSI moves up. A strong RSI is bullish for Bitcoin and this takes us to #2.
2) The RSI has a strong reading at 59. Bullish is above 50 and there is also a bullish cross, when the RSI moved above the RSI based MA (moving average).
The weekly RSI reveals Bitcoin's eternal bullish bias. Over time this indicator becomes overbought but never oversold. Interesting isn't it? It shows that market participants are ready to buy beyond what is reasonable but not willing to sell that much.
As it happened back in late September 2024, the RSI doesn't have to move straight up, there are ups and down within a rise, please keep that in mind. The RSI doesn't necessarily reflect what Bitcoin is doing or will do, it only supports a broader bias, trend or cycle, in this case the bullish case.
Next comes the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).
This is pretty interesting as well and the first signal is a higher low in April 2025 vs September 2024, a standard bullish signal:
Revealing Bitcoin's eternal bullish bias, the MACD starts to recover without reaching the bearish zone. The bearish zone is when the MACD moves below zero, here the recovery is happening above.
The fact that the bullish cross on the MACD, when the MACD line crosses upward the signal line, is not yet in means that this bullish cycle is still early.
When the MACD line (blue) starts to curve on the weekly timeframe after making a long-term low, as it is now, the market turns bullish and there is no going back.
I will go deeper on the MACD in part 2 of this publication.
If you enjoy it and like it boost it to give me feedback. The more feedback, the deeper the next analysis will be.
Thanks a lot for reading, your support is truly appreciated.
I'll see you next time.
Namaste.
$100K Bitcoin Within Days » Top Altcoins Choice —Your Pick (S5)Bitcoin is now bullish confirmed with a break above $97,000. Today Bitcoin trades at the highest price since late February 2025, and it is set to continue growing and growing aiming next at a break and challenge of 100K.
As soon as 100K is conquered, the Altcoins will go wild.
Which pair is your favorite Altcoin right now?
Let's start Session 5 of Your Top Altcoin Choice.
» Leave a comment with your preferred Altcoin trading pair and I will reply to your comment with a full analysis.
» We will do one pair per user/commentator.
Feel free to ask any questions.
Bitcoin is bullish now and set to grow long-term. The next All-Time High can happen around $160,000 just as it can be $180,000 or $250,000. Patience is key.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
The Bitcoin Illusion: Why $300K or $1M Is a Pipe DreamBitcoin enthusiasts love throwing around wild price predictions—$300K, $1M, even $5M per BTC—as if these numbers are inevitable. But let’s break down the math and expose the delusion behind these claims:
Bitcoin at $300K or $1M? Let’s Do the Math
- $300,000 is a number pulled out of thin air by Michael Saylor and Robert Kiyosaki, either deliberately misleading or financially illiterate. They fail to grasp that this would require a market cap of $6 trillion.
- $1 million, as Cathy Wood foolishly claims, would require Bitcoin’s market cap to exceed $20 trillion—more than the entire GDP of the United States.
- The idea that Bitcoin will magically absorb trillions in global wealth is pure delusion.
Now, let’s put this into perspective:
- Bitcoin reaching $100K was relatively easy because it required a market cap of just $2 trillion—a fraction of global liquidity.
- But pushing Bitcoin to $300K or beyond requires trillions more, which is mathematically impossible without a massive influx of new capital—capital that simply does not exist.
Your $100K to $1M Fantasy—Let’s Run the Numbers
- Some Bitcoin holders believe their sub-$100K investment will make them multimillionaires.
That's a lie and delusional:
- If you bought 100k worth of Bitcoin at 83K per BTC, it would need to hit $830K per coin for you to even reach $1M.
- That’s not financial genius—it’s blind faith in an impossible scenario.
You’re Living in "The Matrix" of Crypto Lies
- You’re not stacking wealth—you’re stacking HOPIUM.
State Adoption Won’t Skyrocket the Price
- Even if six U.S. states were considering Bitcoin treasuries, those purchases would be OTC (over-the-counter)—meaning they wouldn’t significantly impact market price.
- Governments negotiate deals strategically; they don’t flood markets like retail investors hoping for price surges.
The End of Bitcoin’s Accumulation Phase
Bitcoin’s early adopters—the billionaires who pumped it up—have already made their money. The accumulation phase is over.
- To push Bitcoin higher, these whales would need to inject substantial amounts of new capital—but they are overleveraged and drowning in debt.
- Borrowed money must be repaid, and we're already past Bitcoin’s peak mainstream adoption which means there are no new waves of buyers to sustain the illusion.
- Bitcoin is now entering a distribution phase, where early holders cash out, leaving retail investors holding the bag.
The Rise of ETFs and Real Investments
The world is moving on. Investors are waking up to the fact that:
- ETFs offer real projects with actual purpose, unlike Bitcoin.
- ETFs pay dividends, generate revenue, and contribute to real economic growth.
- Newer crypto projects—like Stamps, art collections, gaming tokens, and smart contracts—are gaining traction and pulling capital away from Bitcoin.
Bitcoiners will get left behind, holding worthless, declining bags of old-school crypto, while the future thrives in better technologies.
The Harsh Reality: Bitcoin’s Future Is Bleeding Out
Bitcoin isn’t the future—it’s a fading illusion.
- The crypto cartel thrives on believers, feeding them fantasy while they cash out.
- The idea that Bitcoin will replace fiat, become the global payment rail, and make every holder rich is a marketing illusion designed to keep people holding bags.
- The longer people ignore reality, the harder the crash will be for them.
Many think they’re ahead of the curve, but they’re just loyal believers in an unsustainable illusion. When this unravels, it won’t be Bitcoin’s future collapsing—it will be theirs.