BTC BULL MARKET NOT OVER! The SICKEST Market Manipulation EVERHey all Gamblers Paradise here with another crucial update on the Bitcoin Price Action. Just wanted to remind you to please like and comment on this post if you have found use for it in your trading analysis and be sure to also Like & Follow my Trading View account to get these updates as soon as they come out!
The SMART TRADERS are SMASHING the LIKE, REP and FOLLOW buttons on Trading View because you want these updates and insights into what in the hell is going on with Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies.
First off lets get into the charts.
As I said last time, we break below the $53.8k price point with no volume and it was lower prices we would see.. And what happened?
We had a daily candle close below the $53k price point and we proceeded to dump the very next candle down to $41.1k (just $2,100 above the lowest point i mentioned)
Any of you that saw this coming, and got your limits down in the support range i had ranged between $39k and $46k.. CONGRATS!
Ill make the current analysis quick since bitcoin is pumping and we need to get back into the charts.
The other SMART TRADERS I converse with and I have agreed that this was a Wycoff Distribution Schematic Top breakdown from the $65k and $69k tops we made for the second time on a macro scale now while having two heavily bullish patterns fail and break down to the $41.1k price point.
SILVER LINING,
WE NEED BITCOIN TO BREAK ABOVE THE $58k PRICE POINT AND STAY ABOVE IT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER OVERALL. IF WE CAN ACCOMPLISH THIS, THEN WE ARE STILL SEEING PRICE TARGETS BETWEEN $130K AND $140K THE START OF FEBRUARY 2022.
CAN WE ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISH THIS?? ESPECIALLY WITH THE BREAKDOWN WE JUST HAD...
Yes, this is quite possible actually, and it we could still even possibly see $100k by the end of December, just depends on when exactly we break the $58k point and continue to move higher.
The small handful of other traders I consider to be Experts in Technical Analysis and hold a very reputable status in the Crypto Market, We all saw the Wycoff Distribution top coming. We all saw the failure of the two heavily bullish patters we had made as a last effort before the breakdown. We all see the symmetrical triangle that we have made after bottoming at $41.1k and this symm. triangle having its resistance touched MANY MORE times than the Support side.
BUT THERE IS ONE HIDDEN PATTERN THAT I HAVE NOT SEEN ONE OTHER ANALYST SAY ONCE... SO ALLOW ME TO BE THE FIRST!
This hidden pattern has been a very obvious chart move that embodies every last bit of screwing with the market psychology. And this time it is absolutely sick in the market psychology manipulation that it has caused a shift in.
This is a pattern that bitcoin has made a few times in the last 7 years that CONFIRMS THE CORRECTION WE ARE IN IS OVER! It is one of the only chart patterns that exists that will do the exact opposite at first when its true intention is price action to the opposite of the first move. As you read in my last analysis, THIS IS THE POINT WHERE WE SNAP THE BEARS BACKS
Here is what i mean..
In the figure above^^ Date Rage of about December 2014 through December 2015
In the figure above ^^ Date range of about December 2018 through September 2020
While in a bear market We see this pattern confirm that the correction is over, when We see the correction phase bottom the first time with an average of a 55% move to the downside. The we have a reaction rally that after it tops under the last ATH's downtrend resistance line. Followed by sideways price action, into what looks like another attempt to re-test the last ATH's downtrend resistance line. When the volume does not support the move upward to re-test the resistance trend line, we start a price action move to the downside that becomes whats called a lead in. The lead in has at least (3) lower high touch points that are very close to one another which confirms a downtrend resistance line. This would create a double top along with the reaction rally plus the sideways price action and now a confirmed downtrend line off this second top. We follow this confirmation a specific dump to the downside that also maintains roughly a 50%+ bullish momentum wick. This dump would also create a the correction phase or bear market double bottom in a larger macro perspective. Despite the dump having a larger overall size in March 2020 compared to back in 2015, the reason for the size difference relates to the COVID-19 Virus being announced as a national emergency by 50+ of the largest nations in the world.
HIDDEN PATTERN FOUND:
Both of the charts above show what is called a Bump and Run Reversal Pattern.
A Bump and Run Reversal (BARR) is in face a BULLISH pattern despite it having a quite large breakdown and dump to lower prices. This dump is shown to be anywhere between 40% and 60% to the downside. And we have followed this dump with a long term bull market trend. First move after dumping 40%-60% to the downsize, from wick bottom is a macro-pump of about 220%
Market Psychology/ Market Maker Analysis
Remember that Market Makers are looking to position their longs/buys while the price is moving down, and then position their covers/shorts/sells while the price is going up. All of which are placed at pre-determined points .
This type of psyche out will happen when market makers are looking for additional volume that is not their own to continue further movement in a trend. But when the market psychology and sentiment is or already has become heavily biased to the side that we need volume to come in. They will remove almost all of their volume and place small sized DCA filler order blocks. An easy way to see this lack of volume or unevenness to the market is by looking at the total longs vrs total shorts charts.
This is where we would see the market makers look to do the exact opposite of what the entire markets' expectation is looking in price action. A large psyche out move by the market makers, that is able to shift the market sentiment to where many of those traders that tried pricing in the market with early positions that were just sitting and waiting. And all these positions were based on assumptions and expectations community sentiment bias.
Once the psyche out move is made, those who do not understand what i am saying right now will play right into the what the market makers want you to do and have now changed your bias and with numbers changing the bias will change the overall sentiment the market.
Pattern Schematics:
In the Bump and Run Reversal for the bulls, they cause a price dump by drying the buy/long side of the order book and that makes the sells/short have to start market selling to what buy orders are in the order book. Normally this is sparked by extreme fear in the Greed/Fear index and will be retail traders that had longs/buys in position already, and have now covered their position. Once the price has dropped enough, more will continue to panic sell into the lack of longs/buy orders there are in the order-book. Thus causing the Bump and Run Reversals very large dump candle.
After breaking down what exactly market makers are looking for and doing. Lets look at the current and recent price action from 2021.
Coming off the last Bump and Run Reversal in to a parabolic move to the upside to break the previous ATH of $19.8k. We then move into an over-extended trend by going all the way up to $42k, due to institutional investors jumping in and then the crypto craze to the traditional markets once again ensued. We should have taken our 55% correction that we did from there an then been able to re-test the previous ATH at 20k for support. But instead we had Elon Musk announce his move into Bitcoin at $31k and also Teslas purchase of bitcoin to hold on company reserve assets. This fueled a new buying craze, going from $34k to $64k, which would actually be considered a blowoff top. BUT we did not top in the fashion of a blow off top. Instead we rounded off and formed 3 low volume higher highs for the Wycoff Distribution top that we formed off the $64k top. And as I said and the charts show, we made a correction size move especially when you are to consider how with where bitcoin is at in the logarithmic regression curve, all of our macro chat action should becoming smaller in percentage and then larger in price moves. These moves would also become more elongated as time goes on as well.
Given that we do not know what new bear markets total drop in % would be, it could very well be 55% now since we have had what is called a Mid-Cycle Correction Phase. Bitcoin has not had a Mid-Cycle Correction phase since the supercycle of 2013-2014 where after going parabolic it dropped about 82% in what would look like a very short bear market, until it started its next pump thus completing the bull market for that cycle.
Currently, it is seen to be that we are in that same kind of Mid-Cycle Correction phase. And after recovering off our $29.5k bottom and then breaking our $64k ATH, we make yet another Wycoff Distribution top with tops at $65k and an current ATH of $69.9k. The reason we did not break the $70k level and go to the projected price target of about $72k-$74k from what could be extrapolated off our previous move. We formed what looked like an extremely bearish scenario for bitcoin, having this MACRO double top that was made with a wycoff distribution schematic on each top. There was some bearish sentiment from this. These people are idiots when it came to the fact we were in a triple falling wedge formation with 70%-80% pumps to the upside and on top of it for the pattern to be a confirmed double top, the first ATH of 64k should have held as resistance, not allowing us to break it.
These two bullish points are what held a lot of bullish sentiment still. SO the market makers had to get that sentiment shift from the majority of people and get volume going in the opposite direction to where the trend could continue to the upside since we did break the ATH of 64k.
Now after explaining all of this highly complex and analytical crapola.... what the market makers have done, is disguise the second top that was a wycoff distribution top and breakdown, into a bullish Bump and Run Reversal pattern. This is obvious given that after making our net ATH at $69k after breaking the previous at $64k signifying more price action to the upside has a high probability, all we needed was Buy Volume. A Wycoff distribution breakdown into a bump and run reversal shook out so many weak hands that its crazy. The bullish momentum wick off the $41.1k bottom shows the bullish momentum and sentiment to the price action even across then entire $28k drop we've made.
And as SMART TRADERS, we look at any and all logical and rational outcomes that are supported by data. If he price goes up, we had a plan of action setup to where we're making money. If the price goes down, we had a plan of action setup and we're STILL making money!
We don't trade with an emotion and only have a bias when its being supported with confirmations within the chart that support that outcome.
As of an hour later while im concluding writing this, the current price action shows we have broken the symmetrical triangle we have formed to the upside, and appears we are holding support above this as well at $50.5k.
As long as we do not by any means break to back into or below the symmetrical triangle, we are looking at an extrapolated breakout move to the upside which would bring us up to the $53.4k price point in the micro perspective. In the macro perspective, we hold an even higher probability of making the 220% pump starting at wick low from the bullish bump and run reversal bottom.
This gives a first macro price target of $130k - $140k by the beginning of February 2022.
