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GBP - 🐂BULLISH but for how long? 🐻Hey, I'm back! It's been a while took some time off the screens, I am happy and proud of my longer term positioning within GBP taking hits on profit targets - longer term target before 1.43 areas, and I did state yr ahead outlook I am thinking 1.47-1.50! Nice monthly area. In my year ahead outlook for 2021- If you're interested in the video , Privately message. Over night, we had a GBP head higher towards 1.42 areas - Now we did get positive news starting this week easing lockdown, but the key is we COULD be out of lock down before June 21st! Incredible right?! if that happens! Less craziness.. Now if you're active follower of mine you would know - I am bullish GBP and I've been selling EURGBP combined. Well, I've given you my longer term target one of them...However, be careful don't go buying all in at these levels I'd like actually GBP to have pull back to some key areas. Fundamentals: - GBP Monetary Policy Report Hearings - Chief Economist Haldane Speaks & Gov Bailey. - Fed Chair Powell Testifies (Yesterday, we had Powell testifies- Dovish the usual 'far away from employment and long term inflation goals' but we've got this reflation trade situation - Yields high...! ) - RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks (RBNZ - Yesterday, Monetary Policy Statement. Take a look at AUDNZD, It was a great short opportunity - Prolonged Monetary Stimulus) Technical: - More of a complicated chart... - Pattern: Within Channel or wedge formation (Monthly - double bottom) - Support: 1.41405, 1.41210, 1.40760, 1.40430 - Resistance: 1.42255, 1.42606, 1.43120 Be aware of the over night spike, if that gets taken out, further bullish momentum to continue. Overall we are still in bullish territory until we are out of the channel i've drawn , then I'd target 50 EMA areas, which add confluence to Fib area. (FOLLOW YOUR OWN TRADE PLAN FOR FURTHER CONFLUENCE) Bonus: BTC -It was at high areas of 58k areas, to 48/49k. A Very volatile asset, I did state it would head lower when it was at highs. What goes up, comes down eventually! I actually think we could perhaps head lower and if it doesn't I rather be late to the party - It isn't really an asset I'd invest a high % of my portfolio in due to the high volatile movements. I am not holding BTC Positioning at this current moment of time. I am out until I am ready to get long again. Key tip: “Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.”― Aristotle Have a good day, Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
Inflation Rate Roundups Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
TVC:DXY
by Michael_Harding
2
Monetary Policy Meeting: BoE & RBALast week, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia held their first monetary policy meeting for this year. In this article, we will look at the takeaway from the meetings. BoE put to rest speculation on adoption of negative interest rate. The third national lockdown imposed on England early last month led to the speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely going to take interest rate to the negative level to cushion the negative impact on the UK economy. However, the speculation has been put to rest by the central bank during its monetary policy meeting last week. In the monetary policy minutes, the BoE stated that it “did not wish to send any signal that it intended to set a negative Bank Rate at some point in the future”. Furthermore, the central bank highlighted that the implementation of negative interest rate will require preparatory work to be carried out six months before its implementation. In an effort to control the situation, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey advised the public not to speculate any future actions that the central bank may take. On the economic recovery side of things, the BoE expects the UK economy to contract by 4% during the first quarter of 2021. However, the central bank is optimistic that the economy will recover fast this year with UK’s speedy vaccination programme, expecting the economy to return to the pre-pandemic level by the first quarter of 2022. As a result, the BoE revised down its economic growth forecast for 2021 from 7.25% to 5% but revised up its forecast for 2022 from 6.25% to 7.25%. Finally, the central bank kept its interest rate and monetary policy unchanged. RBA carries out more monetary policy easing. Unlike the Bank of England, its Australian counterpart took a more aggressive approach towards monetary easing. During the monetary policy meeting last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to purchase additional $100 billion of government bonds once the current bond purchase program ends in mid-April. The main reason for the central bank to carry out more easing was due to subdued wage and price pressures. The RBA highlighted that the latest annual inflation rate of 0.9% is still far from the central bank’s targeted level of 2-3% while wages are increasing at the slowest rate ever. The central bank expects both inflation and wages to pick up gradually but will still remain below 2 per cent over the next two years. Despite the subdued wage and price pressures, the RBA also acknowledged that economic recovery in Australia has exceeded their expectation. The jobs market has been performing well, indicating strong employment growth and continued decline in unemployment rate. Consumer spending has also been strong while an increase in the number of deferred loan repayments have been made. Thus, the central bank is now expecting the country’s economic growth to return to the end-2019 level by mid-2021 as opposed to the previous expectation of end-2021. Lastly, the RBA also expect interest rate to remain at the current level of 0.10% until wages growth is higher than the current level and its inflation target range of 2-3% has been met, which the central bank foresees it to happen only in 2024 at the earliest.
ICEUS:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Sterling succumbs to the Buck in the run up to the BoE policy...Sterling succumbs to the Buck in the run up to the BoE policy announcement where eyes will be fixated on commentary on the feasibility of NIRP for the banking sector if required, although the immediacy of such policy is likely to be downplayed by the MPC. Meanwhile, markets currently pencil in incremental negative rates for August. Cable has descended from its 1.3683 high, through its 21 DMA (1.3645) to trade sub-1.3600 as keeps its 50 DMA (1.3540) on the radar. 1.3800 Overall upside target.
Long
by FTUKcom
14
Cable Explodes following BOEComments from the BOE meeting this morning 1. CPI inflation is expected to rise quite sharply towards the 2% target in the Spring. 2. Other indicators suggest that Labour market slack has remained higher than implied by the LFS rate. 3. CPI inflation is projected to be close to 2% over the second and third years of the forecast period. 4. A further increase in unemployment is projected over the next few quarters. 5. The average weekly earnings growth has been notably stronger than expected in the November report. 6. See UK GDP +5% in 2021 (Nov. projection: +7.25%). 7. BoE sees UK GDP +7.25% in 2022 (Nov. projection: +6.25%). ------------------------- Please don't forget to FOLLOW, LIKE, and COMMENT ... If you like my analysis:) Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
Long
by Michael_Harding
Channel tradingGBPJPY is inside a channel in h4 chart, the volumes are getting lower, that means that the buying pressure is decreasing and the price is going to drop towards the support trendline at least, we notice that the lower trendline corresponds to the horizontal support around 142.3, I think that price may fall in coming hours (tomorrow there will be high volatility due to the publication of Bank of England statement) towards the 100 sma. Look at the idea below which represents an outlook of the pair in daily chart before considering to open a position. Use a proper money management. Francesco
Short
by Dragon_Investments
GBPUSD - Things could take a turn...!!Happy Tuesday...Here's a free Cable trade idea...! I got asked why do I give my trade ideas for free? It's my passion I live and breathe the markets, I know there's so many scammers out there and capital isn't what I am greedy for ever - but giving the community a guidance to help build confidence for your trading journey is the best gift I could give anyone. This will always be free! GBP - You know for ages if you are an active follower of mine - I am bullish GBP you probably even know my target areas longer term perspective and 1.50 it could go to. However, for now I am really keeping an eye on this formation we have built.- Dollar squeeze could be coming soon....! Fundamentally: - BOE Monetary Policy Report (Thursday) - Negative Rates - I highly doubt its needed - Positive vaccine roll out Technical aspect: Wedge has been formed a break to either direction. Support: 1.37570, 1.36585, 1.35520, 1.35240 Resistance: 1.37100, 1.37600, 1.38070, 1.38940 Ways you could the trade GBP: - Wait for the break out and trade the pull back - Add orders either directions - Go to a smaller time frame to get into an early position if you're feeling confident - Follow your own trade plan for further confluence Key tip: Patience & Discipline. If you have any questions, message privately happy to help. All the best, Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Finding a Floor📌 ridethepig | EURGBP Finding a Floor After the preparatory manoeuvre, passive sellers are keeping a close eye on the 0.882x ABC target and already starting to cover. Sharp Buyers were aware of this and made the transition to attempt a base formation. With ECB / FED now cleared there is the customary inventiveness to continue with the rally. What we are trading here is the expectation of BOE cuts and calling bluff on ECB holding pattern. On the GBP side, we have been given a data from Johnson for March where kids will return back to school. Taking it with a pinch of salt once more and recommend resisting temptation to park in GBP. BOE has room to cut rates and with Brexit impact starting to enter into play, the flows will become clearer. Technically taking 0.893x will open the floodgates for a momentum gambit towards the highs, while to the downside 0.887x/0.882x area will continue to be the loading zone. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | EURGBP for ECB📌 ridethepig | EURGBP for ECB Now that we are trading back at the lows in the range in EURGBP, the game is roughly level going into ECB today and we can begin to look for positions once more. In a situation which is very similar to the previous flow that we played from the pivot in December. Continuing to build EUR exposure at 0.885x and looking for ECB & BOE to start diverging in expectations from today onwards. BOE are going to play the whole -ve rate endgame with wonderful precision and genuine artistry. Pound devaluation is the way to go in my opinion. A quick recap of ECB expectations for today: > Global inflation is starting to show signs of creeping higher ( see the explanation ) so expecting Lagarde to be slightly bullish EUR on inflation , neutral on growth, no changes in rates and the usual 'watching the currency closely'. Looking to make use of the 0.885x lows for a move back towards our 0.900x pivot and 0.922x highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
15
ridethepig | Teeing Off in GBPUSD📌 ridethepig | Teeing Off in GBPUSD After an interesting Asian session the unlikely looking manoeuvre is preparing to unfold. Why? Because sharp speculators are already beginning to outguess the dovish BOE and directionally are flooding back to USD. A very similar setup to the one we traded in the middle of December flows: Large macro players have been spotted on the offer, a few moves later and we can be back at 1.313x in little time. Things that develop thereafter will be interesting, for now let's play the initial leg down trapping the unaware buyers who are protecting GBP. Swing the club, and don't mess it up! Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
18
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 Another early breakfast for Pound sellers, brexit occupies the sentiment throne and optimism has clearly vacated! Pound now has its eye on the breakdown as expected since yesterday and even a wishy washy deal will be a sell in the short-term. Johnson and VDL taking it to the wires will turn out to be the obstruction for another move lower will be difficult to defend. With 1.360x holding in fine style and shorts starting to enter with volume, quite heart-rendering.... Stay short GBPUSD looking for1.346x, 1.328x and 1.313x with invalidation above 1.372x; and long EURGBP above the 0.900x handle with main targets 0.92xx and 1.00x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Breaking Out?📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 17.12.2020 - EURGBP This line illustrates how we can attempt picking a fight with the winning side. It is a characteristic for confidence to see price getting rejected each time it dips below 0.900x, while when above, buyers have the ability to roam anywhere, they are in full control! Here the weakness is isolated to the UK and it is worth considering to play against EUR, USD and JPY in particular. The GBP outflows is now such an abused line that we can comfortably play on various crosses at the same time. Aiming for a test of 0.922x to be resolved initially before anything else. In order to keep maintaining the advantage, buyers should look to pick up pace on the technical break as all resistance will be damaged. UK and EU have had their say...Now it is the markets turn. I am aiming to keep the short-term flows coming in-between the LT and MT chart updates as I know many here are not interested in macro charts being posted into the tradingview ether. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Notes on GBPUSD📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 17.12.2020 ==> What we must track here is the buyers playing $1.360x and reaching overdone levels. The exchanging between UK and Europe is coming to an end, meaning the focus can shift towards the complete 'liberation' of the UK from which it was previously 'restricted'. So, in such cases, when a country loses market access the central bank gets bogged down with devaluation, and in these cases it means we should be able to employ offers with the same stratagem from when Johnson was initially elected. This sort of tendency to going down and roll back up the whole swing, is what I would call the cleansing of the board. It is a move which is aimed at whiping the ladder and opening up the dominating (and appropriate story) at the time which is the well being of the UK and woes of which will determine the actions. A very plausible move we played earlier in the month, and of course after the bounce up I am sure there is hesitancy to play it again. Now I am looking for signs of a top at $1.357x / $1.360x and the threat of a hammer down is greater than ever. GBP buyers have not played very economically and are hung by a thread of support. Sunak announcing the furlough package any minute, this expensive fiscal deal is far from any stretch of the imagination a conservative policy... The exploitation of the terrain up here, namely the squeeze, will force all soft hand retail to close and into a state of confusion. Stay alert, avoid the noise and play the leg down...we might get the waterfall for Christmas. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 09.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Commentary GBPUSD This linkage between the retracement and the impulsive wave is classical, believed only in absolute directional moves; ....sellers of UK assets are a forced to be reckoned with and such a move in 80 cases out of 100 will be considered worth playing. I am dropping the figure from 1.350x to 1.345x because I expect sellers to aggressively defend the resistance move. The strength of the USD should in no way be underestimated. And suddenly we are reaching the nucleus of the retracement. Clarification of the manoeuvre.... The majority are thinking that a dinner for two tonight between Johnson and VDL will consist of progress, instead I think the can will be once again kicked and create some kind of diversion. At the same time, we are going to use technicals here to show the nucleus. I shall choose a typical ABC retracement as an example of the flows to link and fade. In this case 1.345x is being blocked from the previous orderblock which we traded live: The threat of another leg lower interrupting all lines of communication between GBP buyers on one hand and risk on the other. Therefore we should track the necessity of trapping out opponent on the highs. If you know the thoughts of your opponent, it is easy to assimilate the concept of a counter attack; a flank which will hammer the currency in a naturally speculative way. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
33
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 02.12.2020This point of view, relying on the soundness of the highs, which has been proved, will be vital to our success, because it is what we are leaning on and it is giving us a chance to pull the trigger in a somewhat cheap area in terms of risk. But the risk is as follows: if the only way to achieve liquidation is a sweep above mentioned highs, the possibility of running stops on a headline is still NOT zero. So what are the possibilities of our stops getting hit? It is not an easy one to answer. It depends on a closer look at the timing, it is always more important than price, the only reason GBP is not trading at 1.20 and 1.15 is namely the dollar devaluation and some more details around a deal which can still follow. I would like to anticipate that it was all too easy for UK to push through Pfizer and consider it an important advance on softening brexit headlines that are still to come. Allow appropriate room for the stops incase of that possible thrust, a single towards 1.285 and 1.20 is sufficient. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EURGBP grinding higherBarnier comments on 'no deal is still possible' well illustrating the strategic skill of negotiation. UK has sadly been completely outplayed, not by any fault other than some simple Etonians sticking about fisheries which is 0.02% of GDP...Hard to understand how we ended up here, most £500m private companies would never dream of hiring Johnson as CEO or Sunak as CFO...Brexit was always political fairy-dust, a last despairing effort to continue the 'empire' which was immediately countered via the powerful Klaus Schwab at WEF and etc. 📍 The lows are now protected and in good shape. Of course, you are right to think the threat is for them to sweep the lows, just like how buyers played the interesting line of sweeping the highs in GBPUSD before crashing: I love it when a story comes together. The next leg here is higher for EURGBP, London is vacating its seat at the table (in the short-term at least) and sharp speculators are well aware. Much better to look for a test of the highs here, as we shall see, an important few weeks. I completely understand why some voted for Brexit, unfortunately in such a scenario there is always the question: which carries more weight globally, the UK or the EU? Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Chart of the Week📌 ridethepig | Chart of the Week This illustrates the struggle of the retrace. Motto: first map, then position, and finally destroy. Those that remember the infamous chart from Johnson elections will remember we are back to square one, another year has passed with the direction focused on a necessary component of 'how to make the country less worse off'. This direction alone does restrain the freeing advance, more thoroughly than any other set-up. Bravo! Sellers were not afraid of the 1.35 highs before, because strong play in negotiations or not it could never bring down the outflows from Brexit; and with Trump winning in doubt it is restraining the pressure of Johnson to drive back to the EU side. A breakdown is there for the taking. Good luck all those attempting to play it.
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | FTSE Fundamental FlowsHere we are more or less back to square one as to where we were in July and testing away at the resistance. Buyers are showing a lack of tenacity! If after the Brexit fact (does not really matter if its a deal or hard brexit deal) we can see the possible outflow pressure really start to make itself felt. The strong counter here should immediately come under pressure with the initial loss of market access and broader global slowdown. Once again (and with slow and steady pace) start to build some sell side exposure, abandon the overweight UK equities position and employ the following manoeuvres. A test of the centre looks rolled up and ready to take. Make excellent use of the flow towards 5,600. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | Buy EURGBP expecting GBP outflows📝 EURGBP While the single currency block continues to work together on Covid the UK is as divided as ever, from Scottish independence to the North / South divide. Faster Macro data has started to tick back down in Europe and the UK. We are going to see a decline in activity once more into November and with Brexit still to come this will hurt the UK more in the immediate term. On the technical side, the break of 0.915x is encouraging for bulls and opens up in the near-term a test of 0.927x. I would also like to leave core positions running for the inevitable test of parity. Keep a close eye on 1.294x for those in GBPUSD. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3