Btc-e
BTC the Bear Market Has Started 2026 Will Be a Bearish Year! Looking at Bitcoin’s long-term market structure, we can clearly see a repeating cyclical pattern that has stayed surprisingly consistent over the past decade.
🔁Historical Pattern
When analyzing previous cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), Bitcoin tends to follow a rhythm:
Bull market duration: ~1050–1070 days
Bear market duration: ~360–400 days
This timing has repeated with remarkable accuracy across all major market cycles.
📉What’s Happening Now
According to the cycle structure shown on the chart, the 2021–2025 bull market has reached its exhaustion point.
The current price action suggests that a new bear market phase has already begun, aligning perfectly with the historical 360–400-day correction window.
📉Technical Patterns Confirm Bearish Momentum
It’s not just the cycle timing:
Multiple technical analysis patterns shown on the chart also point to deeper downside.
Structure breakdowns
Lower highs formation
Momentum weakening
Failed attempts to reclaim trend resistance
These patterns collectively indicate a high probability of Bitcoin dropping below the $70,000 level in the coming months.
Everything looks bearish — both from a cyclical perspective and from pure technical analysis.
📅Key Projection
If the cycle continues to repeat:
➡️The next major bull market is likely to begin around October 2026.
WANTED DEAD OR ALIVE ! BITCOIN Based on the chart you shared and your request for an in-depth analysis, I have evaluated the situation from the perspective of an Expert Technical Analyst and Macroeconomist.
Below you will find the technical reading of the chart, its comparison with the 1970s Gold fractal, and the academic/economic grounding for why Bitcoin is "mathematically" bound to appreciate in value.
1. Technical Analysis of the Chart: "Rising Channel and Trend Theme"
The TradingView chart you shared (Weekly/Logarithmic) clearly illustrates Bitcoin's long-term secular bull market cycle.
Formation and Structure: An "Ascending Broadening Wedge" or an "Ascending Channel" structure is evident in the chart. This structure confirms that while volatility increases over time, the bottoms are consistently rising (Higher Lows).
Upper Resistance Line (Arrows): The line connecting the 2017 peak, the 2021 double peak, and the 2024-2025 projection. This area acts as an "overbought" zone where profit-taking occurs every time it is tested.
Lower Support Line (Numbers 1-2-3): This line is the backbone of the bull market.
Point 1 (2023): Bear market reversal and trend initiation.
Point 2 (Early 2024): Intermediate correction and confirmation.
Point 3 (Current): The region where the price is currently located. The chart indicates that the price is touching the channel support (trendline) and a purely technical upward reaction (green arrow) is expected from here.
Technical Deduction: In technical analysis literature, the trend is your friend. As long as the price holds at zone number 3, the technical target is the upper band of the channel, ranging between $140,000 - $180,000. However, if this support breaks, the formation is invalidated, and a deeper correction (bear trap or trend change) would be expected.
2. Historical Similarity: Gold (1970-1980) vs. Bitcoin
There are striking academic and structural similarities between Bitcoin's current structure and Gold's movement during the "Great Inflation Era" of 1970-1980.
The 1970s Gold Scenario:
1971 Nixon Shock: The US ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold (End of Bretton Woods). This initiated the era of fiat (unbacked) currency.
First Rally (1971-1974): Gold rose from $35 to $190 (~5x increase).
The Great Correction (1974-1976): Gold lost nearly 50% of its value, falling back to $100. (Investors claimed the "Gold bubble had burst").
Parabolic Rally (1976-1980): Gold went from $100 to $850, marking an ~8.5x increase.
Comparison with Bitcoin: Regions 2 and 3 on your chart strongly resemble that painful "shakeout" period of Gold in 1976.
At that time, Gold was being repriced as a "store of value" against high inflation and negative real interest rates.
Bitcoin is currently in the institutional acceptance phase (ETFs) as "Digital Gold."
If the 1970s fractal plays out; the current consolidation (sideways/downward process) is the final major stop before the "Parabolic Mania" phase.
3. Economic and Academic Basis: Why "Must" Bitcoin Rise?
This part of your question moves beyond technical analysis into Monetary Economics. Bitcoin gaining value against the dollar stems not just from Bitcoin's "miracle," but from the mathematical weakness of the Dollar (and other fiat currencies).
We can explain this using three academic concepts:
A. The Denominator Effect and M2 Money Supply
The price of an asset is measured as Asset / Currency (BTC/USD). If the denominator (USD) constantly expands, the price rises even if the numerator (BTC) remains constant.
As Milton Friedman stated: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
Central banks (Fed) are forced to continuously print money (Quantitative Easing) to manage debt crises. An asset that is printed without limit (Dollar) is doomed to lose value against an asset with mathematically locked limits (21 Million Bitcoin).
Gold: Compared to the existing stock of gold on earth, the amount of new gold mined annually is low (High S2F ratio). This makes it valuable.
Bitcoin: Thanks to the halving mechanism, Bitcoin's inflation rate (new supply) is cut in half every 4 years.
Bitcoin is the only asset whose supply is perfectly inelastic (supply cannot be increased even if the price rises). If the price of gold goes up 10x, miners dig more and increase the supply. If Bitcoin goes up 100x, the number of Bitcoins produced is fixed by the algorithm. Economically, this is "Absolute Scarcity."
C. Gresham's Law and Thiers' Law
Gresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good." People spend the depreciating currency (Dollar/Fiat) and hoard the valuable one (Gold/BTC).
Thiers' Law: The inverse of Gresham's law; when a market collapses or during hyperinflation, "Good money drives out bad." People refuse to accept fiat currency and demand only "hard assets."
Bitcoin's long-term rise represents the global economy's painful transition from a fiat money system (arbitrarily printed paper) to a mathematics-based monetary system.
Conclusion and Summary
Point number 3 on your chart is a critical decision moment from both a technical and macroeconomic standpoint.
Technically: We are at the support of the long-term rising channel. In terms of risk/reward, this is a "buy" zone.
Historically: It resembles the "calm before the storm" period of Gold in 1976.
Economically: As long as global debt ratios and the necessity of money printing (Debasement) continue, Bitcoin gaining value against fiat currencies is not speculation, but a macroeconomic necessity.
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1. Technical Analysis of the Chart:
"Rising Channel and Trend Theme"The TradingView chart you shared (Weekly/Logarithmic) clearly illustrates Bitcoin's long-term secular bull market cycle.Formation and Structure:An "Ascending Broadening Wedge" or an "Ascending Channel" structure is evident in the chart. This structure confirms that while volatility increases over time, the bottoms are consistently rising (Higher Lows).Upper Resistance Line (Arrows): The line connecting the 2017 peak, the 2021 double peak, and the 2024-2025 projection. This area acts as an "overbought" zone where profit-taking occurs every time it is tested.Lower Support Line (Numbers 1-2-3): This line is the backbone of the bull market.Point 1 (2023): Bear market reversal and trend initiation.Point 2 (Early 2024): Intermediate correction and confirmation.
Point 3 (Current): The region where the price is currently located. The chart indicates that the price is touching the channel support (trendline) and a purely technical upward reaction (green arrow) is expected from here.Technical Deduction:In technical analysis literature, the trend is your friend. As long as the price holds at zone number 3, the technical target is the upper band of the channel, ranging between $140,000 - $180,000. However, if this support breaks, the formation is invalidated, and a deeper correction would be expected.
2. Historical Similarity: Gold (1970-1980) vs. BitcoinThere are striking academic and structural similarities between Bitcoin's current structure and Gold's movement during the "Great Inflation Era" of 1970-1980.The 1970s Gold Scenario:1971 Nixon Shock: The US ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold. This initiated the era of fiat (unbacked) currency.First Rally (1971-1974): Gold rose from $35 to $190 (~5x increase).
The Great Correction (1974-1976): Gold lost nearly 50% of its value, falling back to $100. (Investors claimed the "Gold bubble had burst").Parabolic Rally (1976-1980): Gold went from $100 to $850, marking an ~8.5x increase.Comparison with
Bitcoin:Regions 2 and 3 on your chart strongly resemble that painful "shakeout" period of Gold in 1976.At that time, Gold was being repriced as a "store of value" against high inflation.Bitcoin is currently in the institutional acceptance phase (ETFs) as "Digital Gold."If the 1970s fractal plays out; the current consolidation is the final major stop before the "Parabolic Mania" phase.
3. Economic and Academic Basis: Why "Must" Bitcoin Rise?This part of your question moves beyond technical analysis into Monetary Economics and Network Theory. Bitcoin gaining value against the dollar stems not just from speculation, but from mathematical laws.We can explain this using three academic concepts:
A. The Denominator Effect and M2 Money SupplyThe price of an asset is measured as Asset / Currency (BTC/USD).If the denominator (USD) constantly expands due to monetary debasement, the price rises even if the numerator (BTC) remains constant.As Milton Friedman stated: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."Central banks are forced to print money to manage global debt. An asset printed without limit (Dollar) is mathematically bound to lose value against a finite asset.
B. The Bitcoin Power Law TheoryUnlike the Stock-to-Flow model (which relies on supply shocks), the Power Law model relies on Time and Network Growth.Scale Invariance: Much like the growth of cities, biological organisms, or planetary systems, Bitcoin's adoption follows a Power Law ($Price \propto Time^n$).The Predictable Corridor: When you plot Bitcoin’s price against time on a log-log scale, it forms a straight line. This indicates that price appreciation is not random but follows a physics-like trajectory of network adoption (Metcalfe’s Law).The "Fair Value" Floor: The Power Law mathematically establishes a rising "floor" price that Bitcoin has historically never breached for long. As time passes, the fair value must increase simply because the network is growing.
According to Power Law regression bands, the price at Point 3 is likely hugging the lower bound (the "buy" zone), suggesting the asset is mathematically undervalued relative to its time-based adoption curve.
C. Gresham's Law and Thiers' LawGresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good." People spend the depreciating currency (Fiat) and hoard the valuable one (Bitcoin).Thiers' Law: When a fiat system becomes unstable, "Good money drives out bad." People refuse to accept paper money and demand hard assets.Bitcoin's rise is the market's natural selection of a superior monetary technology.
Conclusion and Summary Point number 3 on your chart is a critical decision moment:
Technically: We are at the support of the long-term rising channel.
Historically: It resembles the 1976 Gold "shakeout" before the parabolic run.Mathematically: According to the Power Law, the asset is likely resting on its adoption trendline floor, making the upward movement a function of time and network physics rather than just market sentiment.
ALSO CHECK
GOLD vs BITCOIN
BITCOIN This is the 4H Golden Cross that Bulls need at all costsBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a slow rebound following the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) test and is close to forming a 4H Golden Cross for the first time in more than 2 months.
However a similar rebound attempt in December 2021, at the start of the BTC's previous Bear Cycle, after also dropping by -39.50% from the top (against today's -36.20%), failed to form a 4H Golden Cross the 'last minute' and the market resumed the bearish trend towards a new Low, completing a -50.34% total decline.
So far the 1D RSI is similar to December 2021 but there is one key difference. Now Bitcoin has already tested its 1W MA100 (and rebounding) while on the previous Bear Cycle it only came close to it in February 2022. So will that favor and support the market for a little while and make that 4H Golden Cross or the 1D RSI and -36.20% identical drop fractal will push it lower? In the first case, the market will look for a 1D MA200 (black trend-line) test around $105k, which is what happened in March 2022, while in the second for a -47.30% total drop around $67000.
One thing is for sure, if Bulls want to see some relief for some time, they have to defend that 4H Golden Cross.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC SHOWS WEAKNESSMorning folks,
Although BTC started well from 90K support area, mentioned last time, it has not reached 96.4K target, although tried to do it two times. Fed has not helped too much yesterday, and now obviously BTC shows signs of weakness.
If it goes bad way, we consider re-testing of 78-80K lows. But it is a bit early to talk about it. For now - let's just stay aside from any new longs and see what will happen.
Today’s Market Rhythm Is All About Precision Entries1. Market Volatility
Gold continues to move in a clean “adjustment rhythm,” reflecting an intraday environment where price is fluctuating inside a bearish structure but still producing technical pullbacks.
Volatility isn’t explosive but it’s precisely enough to create high-accuracy entry zones for intraday traders.
2. Trader Psychology
This is the phase where traders often get trapped by small pullbacks or emotional entries.
But those who understand the money flow can clearly see that price is simply cycling liquidity and adjusting before the next move.
Discipline beats emotion especially in timing-based trading.
3. Key Drivers / Market Reasoning
Market structure maintains:
-A slightly bearish overall trend
-Pullbacks acting as liquidity grabs, not true reversals
-Strong liquidity concentration around 4150–4160
-A clear institutional reaction zone at 4237–4240
Based on current flow, both intraday setups perfectly align with the market’s liquidity map.
4. Trading Strategy
📌 SETUP 1: Timing SELL Zone
XAUUSD SELL ZONE: 4237 – 4240
TP: 4234 – 4229
SL: 4244
➡️ This is a trend-following setup.
4237–4240 acts as a liquidity pocket where price tends to sweep before continuing downward.
The previous A–B–C wave structure supports this downward continuation.
📌 SETUP 2: Timing BUY Zone
XAUUSD BUY ZONE: 4147 – 4150
TP: 4153 – 4158
SL: 4143
➡️ This is a counter-trend setup but perfectly aligned with liquidity behavior.
4147–4150 is a key reaction zone a short-term liquidity base where buyers actively step in.
⚠️ Capital management is essential for both setups to maximize efficiency and protect your account.
5. Trend & Price Outlook
Gold is moving within an intraday correction structure, but the broader bias still leans bearish.
Today’s two timing zones highlight the highest-probability opportunities:
SELL 4237–4240: the ideal rejection area
BUY 4147–4150: short-term corrective demand zone
The previous A–B–C model remains valid, showing that price is completing its adjustment phase before seeking liquidity.
If you follow the rhythm you’ll always be a step ahead of the market.
When timing aligns with structure, intraday trading becomes effortless
Gold Just Flipped Structure.....The market just transitioned from a bearish sequence into early bullish structure. Most traders will miss this shift but if you understand BOS, ChoCH, and liquidity behaviour, this is where smart money prepares for the next leg up.
1. Market Structure Overview
Your chart shows a full bearish sequence (LH–LL) that has recently transitioned:
-Multiple Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) → clear bearish structure.
-A Change of Character (ChoCH) occurs at the key zone → first signal of reversal.
-A clean Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside confirms buyers stepping in.
-Price then creates a Higher Low (HL) followed by Higher Highs (HH) → early bullish trend established.
This is a textbook reversal from bearish → bullish.
2. Key Zones Identified
Support Zone (Demand)
Located around 4195 – 4174
→ This is where the ChoCH and HL formed, confirming buyer strength.
Resistance Zone (Supply)
Located around 4219 – 4229
→ Price is currently approaching this zone. If it breaks, bullish continuation is expected.
3. Price Behaviour & Expectation
Your yellow projection is correct:
- Price may pull back into the minor support (near current level).
- After that, a bullish leg toward 4219 zone is expected.
- If BOS occurs above 4229, price has room to expand toward new highs around 4238–4244.
This aligns perfectly with the HH → HL structure forming now.
4. Trading Logic
Why bullish?
- Clear BOS on bullish side
- Higher Low forming above support
- Liquidity taken from previous LL
- Price respecting the new bullish structure
Invalidation
If price breaks below 4174, bullish structure is invalidated.
5. Trade Signal
This follows your trading style — structure-based, clean, and logical.
📌 BUY ENTRY: 4203 – 4207
(Retesting minor support + inside new bullish structure)
📌 STOP LOSS: 4178
(Below HL and below ChoCH zone — strong invalidation)
📌 TAKE PROFIT 1: 4219
(Retest of resistance zone)
📌 TAKE PROFIT 2 (Main Target): 4229 – 4233
📌 TAKE PROFIT 3 (Extended Target): 4242 – 4244
Risk–Reward:
1 : 2.5 up to 1 : 4 depending on TP
BITCOIN → False breakout of resistance on a downtrend BINANCE:BTCUSDT is consolidating in the range of 86K - 92K, bears are holding resistance amid a global downtrend, traders lack drivers...
Fundamentally, sentiment in the crypto market is weak, and there is increasing talk of a crypto winter, especially among companies that previously actively bought cryptocurrencies for their balance sheets. There is no bullish driver at the moment.
Bitcoin is in a neutral state, with the market holding the price below 93K. The fundamental background is unstable, and technically, the market is in a downtrend. A reversal pattern is forming relative to 92K, and a retest and false breakout of the zone of interest could trigger a decline to the support range.
Locally, we are seeing an upward channel, but this is a correction against the backdrop of the global trend. If the bears keep the price below 92K, the decline may continue. However, a breakout of 94K and a close above that level could trigger an upward momentum...
Resistance levels: 91850, 92700, 93700
Support levels: 88000, 86300
A false breakout and price consolidation in the short zone could cause further sell-offs towards the areas of interest located at the bottom of the trading range.
Best regards, R. Linda!
XAGUSD BUY SETP📌 Trade Plan (Short & Professional)
🟢 Entry
Buy after bullish confirmation inside:
61.40–61.20 mitigation zone, or
60.70–60.50 main demand zone (preferred after liquidity sweep)
🛑 Stop Loss
Below the demand zone: 59.95–60.00
🎯 Take Profit
Target the next liquidity zone / recent highs:
62.80–63.40
📈 Reason for Entry
Market shows a bullish BOS
Price is retracing to fill imbalance + mitigate demand
Expecting a liquidity sweep, then bullish continuation
BTCUSDT.P - December 11, 2025Price has broken down from a prior intraday range and is now staging a modest rebound off support around 89,300–89,400, with the main downside risk defined by the lower stop area near 87,900–88,000. The short-term trend and momentum remain bearish while below the former breakdown zone and resistance toward 91,800–92,000, where the breakeven and profit target region is marked. A failure to reclaim that resistance and renewed selling from current levels would keep the focus on a retest of the 88,000 area, while a stronger recovery through 92,000 would suggest a deeper corrective bounce toward the prior swing highs.
ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. 3521.89🏷 ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. Dated: 11.12.2025
🏷 3521.89 — Price not yet reached at time of publication
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 5
🏷 Screenshot
🏷 Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. 2608,60🏷 ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. Dated: 11.12.2025
🏷 2608,60 — Price not yet reached at time of publication
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 9
🏷 Screenshot
🏷 Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
$BTC -Ropium-Copium!Heya! Just a quick CRYPTOCAP:BTC update, traders!
FOMC turned out to be a nothing-burger, and 94.5k (yearlyOpen) is proving to be a trouble zone. We didn’t have enough strength to break through, and if we can’t reclaim 92k soon, a retest of the 84–82k base is still pretty likely since we still need to sweep or tap that area at some point.
The Breakout Is Closer Than You Think…NZD/USD – 1H MARKET STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
1) Current Price Structure
- Market is in a clean uptrend (higher highs & higher lows on the left side of chart).
- After the impulsive bullish leg, price has shifted into a sideways range, forming a clear consolidation between Support and Resistance.
- Micro-structure inside the range shows repeated equal highs & equal lows → compression before expansion.
2) Liquidity & Key Zones
- Resistance Zone (Top of Range): 0.5785 – 0.5805
- Multiple rejections → liquidity resting above (buy stops & breakout traps).
- Support Zone (Bottom of Range): 0.5750 – 0.5765
Consistently defended by buyers → liquidity sitting below (sell stops).
Liquidity Note:
Expect a sweep of support (fake break) before a bullish continuation — classic smart money behavior in a bullish market.
3) Today’s Market Scenario
Main Scenario (Bullish Bias – Preferred):
- Price retests the support zone
- Likely performs a liquidity sweep below the zone
- Sharp bullish rejection
- Price rotates back to resistance
- Breaks out → continuation with uptrend alignment
This matches your projected red zig-zag + final bullish impulse.
Alternative Scenario (Low Probability):
- Clear candle close below 0.5740 with no recovery → shift to bearish intraday bias.
4) Market Psychology
- The market is "resting" after a strong push → accumulation psychology.
- Smart money wants liquidity → they will likely sweep below the support to fill buy orders.
- Retail traders try to sell the range highs and buy the lows, but SM often collects their stops before moving to the real direction.
Key idea:
Range = where weak hands lose money.
Breakout = where strong hands take profits
5) Intraday Strategy (Entry – SL – TP)
BUY Setup (Aligned With Your Chart):
Entry: 0.5755 – 0.5765
Stop Loss: 0.5740 (below liquidity pocket)
TP1: 0.5795
TP2: 0.5820
TP3 (Extended): 0.5840+
Trade Management:
If price sweeps support and closes back above → BUY confirmation.
If price closes below → invalidate bullish setup and reassess.
Bitcoin is in a downtrend and Ascending wedgeBitcoin is in a clear downtrend and below key moving averages like 20 WEMA, 34WEMA and below EMA ribbon and below previous low which is 98k. Now it is forming and ascending wedge pattern on 4H time frame which is very bearish. Fundamentally DATs are cooked, No ETF inflows (Mainly outflows), Whales still selling, Gold took the crown of hedge for money printing and with tokenized gold it becomes clear bitcoins narrative has being proven wrong. Until people accept bitcoin as a proper hedge downtrend will continue. Probably can buy bitcoin once Strategy start selling.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – BTCUSD (4H)1. Market Structure: Ascending Channel (Orange)
The chart clearly shows an ascending trend channel – the upper and lower orange lines.
Lower Channel Support: ~$87,000
Upper Channel Resistance: ~$96,000
Medium-term trend = uptrend as long as the price remains within this channel.
2. Key Levels You Have Marked
Resistance
$94,133 – local resistance from which the price recently rejected.
$95,866 – upper boundary of the resistance zone + near-upper channel line.
$99,067 – high target upon channel breakout.
Support
$92,190 – price is currently within this zone, struggling to maintain it.
$90,757 – important intraday support; a breakout opens the way lower.
USD 88,203 – strong support, converging with the lower part of the channel.
3. Price action
Currently, I see:
Rejection from the 94.1k level, which is resistance.
Attempt to return to the center of the structure, but the candlestick is rejected from above.
The market is making a short-term lower high → slight weakening of momentum.
4. Stoch RSI
Stoch RSI (4h):
The lines are in a downward trend from the upper levels, meaning a short-term correction is just beginning.
There is no signal for an upward reversal yet → momentum favors a move to lower support levels.
⭐ 5. Scenarios for the next hours/1–2 days
BULLISH (if BTC maintains 92k–90.7k)
Condition: No break below $90,757
Potential moves:
Consolidation at 92k–91k
Stoch RSI begins to curve upward
Attack:
$94,133
$95,866 (upper channel resistance)
Target:
→ $96,000
→ possible test of $99,000 with a strong breakout
BEARISH (if BTC breaks $90,757 down)
This is a key level. If it breaks:
A quick decline to $88,203
High probability of a retest of the lower channel line (~87k)
This still won't destroy the uptrend, but it will open the door to buying lower.
BTC very Bullish we enter a supercycle, after we watch fed meeting the path is clear. there is no more hawkish, there is more cuts on 2026, we also have Kevin Hassett to make sure everything will goes as Trump's plan. 165k-200k BTC is very possible , 9K-12k ETH is very possible, and 900-1200 SOL is likely the output. Keep stack and buy more. there is only one chance to see this price is only on 2025, there is no cheap BTC ETH SOL in the future. buy as much as you can on SPOT , not in futures market.
Good luck i hope to see you with more wealth in 2026
#BTC Global analysis of BTC. Correction and decline to 65kBYBIT:BTCUSDT
BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
COINBASE:BTCUSD
Bitcoin is currently in an uncertain phase for everyone, so I have analyzed the most likely outcome of the price movement in my opinion.
On D1, we see a downtrend and a reaction from support levels. As a result, Bitcoin corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, after which it did not reverse the trend but continued to test the 0.5 level.
The trend short line on H8-D1 was broken after several serious touches, and now I am waiting for a retest from the 0.618 Fibonacci level and a further correction to 98500-100000, where the 0.618 and 0.702 Fibonacci levels are also located.
This is a serious resistance level for the price and the place where the structure (BOS) was broken. The price usually returns to this place for further movement along the trend.
I expect this scenario, as I have not noticed that the main cryptocurrency has gathered enough liquidity to update its highs and a global long scenario.
At levels 98500 - 100000, I expect a short scenario to levels 65000 - 75000.
From there, Bitcoin will likely delight us with a long-term outlook and attract a large number of investors.
In addition to this, it is known that a large number of investors hold stablecoins and are ready to buy Bitcoin. Until this happens, we can assume that investors and funds are waiting for a suitable favorable price for the main asset.
BTCUSD may bounce from Ichimoku supportBITSTAMP:BTCUSD has been in correction mode for the past two months since its new ATH on October 6, 2025. It fell through various technical supports, including shorter term simple and exponential moving averages. The move has been quick / unforgiving. But it appears to be finding support right where it should when zooming out on the weekly timeframe.
On the Ichimoku charting system (an equilibrium-based system developed in Japan), cloud support is particularly important especially on higher timeframes like weekly and monthly charts. Further, a wide green-colored upward-sloping cloud indicates bullish trend and stronger support. Of course, the Kijun line is overhead on the weekly. That must be overcome in the next few weeks for further upside.
The monthly chart with Bollinger Bands applied at standard settings reveals that BTC has simply retraced to the mean (20-month SMA) during this volatile period of consolidation and correction. This supports the case for consolidation and mean reversion w/in a bull market for BTC. Here is a snapshot:
Always do your own research and manage your risk appropriately for your position size!
And enjoy your holiday season. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!
A Bearish SentimentHey guys, Bitcoin on the 4H is setting up what looks like a textbook distribution pattern, and I'm leaning bearish here despite the recent bounce off $87,688.
Price is currently trading at $91,332, sitting in a really uncomfortable middle zone. We're above the short-term moving averages (EMA20 at $90,193 and EMA50 at $90,276), which on the surface looks bullish. But here's the problem: we're still firmly rejected below the EMA200 at $93,179, and that level's been acting as a ceiling for multiple sessions now. Every time we push toward $92,900-$93,200, sellers step in hard. That's your primary supply zone, and it's reinforced by the Bollinger Band upper limit at $92,918.
The indicator stack is where things get really interesting. ADX is screaming at 77.1, that's extreme trend strength, folks. But which trend? The MACD is still bearish at -286.85 versus signal at -284.68, telling us the momentum remains to the downside despite this bounce. More importantly, check out the Stochastic at 96.4, that's massively overbought on the 4H timeframe. When you see Stochastic that extended, you're usually near a local top, not the beginning of a rally.
Here's where it gets spicy: the MFI is sitting at just 22.9. Let that sink in. Price is pushing higher, Stochastic is overbought, but money flow is absolutely anemic. That's classic divergence, price going up on declining participation. Smart money's distributing into strength while retail's buying the breakout. I've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well for late buyers.
Volume analysis supports the bearish thesis. We're running 30% above average at $26,852, which confirms active participation. But notice the wick structure: 18.4% lower wick shows buyers stepped in aggressively, yet we've got a 5.6% upper wick showing sellers immediately absorbed that pressure. In a healthy uptrend, you want to see small upper wicks and strong closes. This candle structure screams exhaustion.
From a structural perspective, we've formed a higher low (bullish), but we haven't confirmed a higher high yet (neutral to bearish). That makes this a potential bear flag rather than a reversal pattern. The Bollinger Bands are telling a similar story, we're trading just above the middle band at $90,391, but we haven't been able to sustain any momentum toward the upper band. That middle band is now acting as resistance rather than support, which is a bearish flip.
Support levels to watch: immediate support sits at the HMA55 around $90,540, then the EMA20 at $90,193. If those break, we're looking at a quick move back to the lower Bollinger Band at $87,864, which aligns with today's low of $87,688. That zone saw significant buying interest earlier, so it should provide a bounce, but if it fails, we could see acceleration toward the $86,200-$85,500 range where weekly support clusters.
Resistance is clearly defined: $92,918 (Bollinger upper), $93,179 (EMA200), and $93,500 (psychological). Any sustained move above $93,200 would invalidate this bearish setup and suggest we're heading for price discovery toward the $95,000 zone. But with current momentum and indicator readings, I'm assigning less than 30% probability to that scenario.
Trading setup: I'm looking at short entries in the $89,800-$90,500 range if we get a lower high formation on the 1H chart. Stop loss goes above $92,500 to give room for a false breakout. Targets are $87,800 (TP1), $86,200 (TP2), and $85,000 (TP3) for the aggressive traders. Risk/reward on this is roughly 1:2.5 to first target, which is acceptable given the confluence of bearish signals.
The internal market state shows bullish bias but only 38.6% directional confidence, that's essentially a coin flip, and when the algos are this uncertain, I fade the recent move. The 6-2 bull-bear stack sounds bullish until you realize that's only 75% agreement, and with ADX this high, we need near-unanimous confirmation for continuation.
Bottom line: this looks like a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend rather than the start of a new leg up. The combination of overbought Stochastic, weak money flow, bearish MACD, and resistance cluster overhead tilts the probabilities toward downside resolution. I'm giving this a 68% confidence bearish call, not slam-dunk territory, but enough edge to take a position with proper risk management.
What are you guys seeing here? Are you fading this bounce or waiting for confirmation above $93,200?
BTCUSDT.P - December 10, 2025Price is pulling back from a sharp spike into resistance around 94,400–94,800 and is currently retesting the rising trendline that has defined the recent upswing. A defended higher low above this trendline and a push back through 92,900–93,000 would keep the short-term uptrend intact and favor continuation toward the prior highs. A clean break below the trendline with follow-through toward 90,300–90,100 would signal weakening momentum and raise the risk of a deeper correction toward the prior consolidation lows.
ALGO Consolidation at Key Support | Spot Long SetupOver the last couple of days, Algorand (ALGO) has been consolidating tightly around a key support level between $0.130 and $0.135. This range has historically held well, acting as a strong base for previous upward moves. The sideways price action here suggests accumulation, with buyers stepping in to absorb selling pressure.
🎯 Trade Idea (Spot Long)
Entry Zone: $0.130 – $0.135
Take Profits: $0.145 / $0.175 / $0.225 / $0.26
Stop Loss: $0.125
This setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, especially with confirmation of support holding. The multi-tiered TP approach allows for scaling out profitably.
Always watch for volume confirmation and market sentiment shifts. A breakdown below $0.125 would invalidate the idea. This setup is meant for educational purposes only.
ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. 3580.26
🏷 ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. Dated: 10.12.2025
🏷 3580.26 — Price not yet reached at time of publication
🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 15
🏷 Screenshot
🏷 Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations.
The Architect
BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
What if we view the structure of capital from this angle — the Covenant is inevitable.
But in which temporal dimension will it unfold?
You ask: “Is this a correction?”
You update last week’s high — and instantly scream “breakout”?
Or will price drop because someone sneezed?
Or will the chart move up or down solely because some figure ate poorly and developed a headache?
Have I understood you correctly? Are news headlines your compass?
No.
There is no room here for desire.
No room for fear.
No room for hope.
Only the blade of patience — and cold calculation.
Liberation from desire is not a spiritual exercise — it is a prerequisite for precision.
True vision is born only in the silence of the mind.
The retail sector thinks within the confines of immediate price sectors: yesterday, today, tomorrow.
Its horizon is reaction.
Its instrument — the illusion of control.
Capital, however, sees differently.
It operates not with emotions, but with information.
Not with noise, but with logic.
Not with minutes, but with timeframes beyond your imagination.
You must read the chart — not as a map of fluctuations, but as a chronicle of capital’s intent.
And you must shed the perceptual chains of the old world — where headlines dictate price, and desire masquerades as analysis.
But this path is not for all.
Only those who have silenced their inner noise — who seek not a signal, but the essence — will find the answer.
And they will remain silent.
Or stay behind the door.
— Mr. Bolzen
PreFactum: Analytics
