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BTCUSDT: Positive CDV Divergence for Potential Long Setups• Market Overview: Bitcoin currently sits at a pivotal point. Although the price movement has been somewhat indecisive, we’re watching closely for signs of bullish momentum. • CDV Divergence Focus: Our attention is on a potential positive Cumulative Volume Delta (CDV) divergence. This takes shape when the price makes a lower low but CDV registers a higher low (regular bullish divergence), or when the price posts a higher low and CDV shows a lower low (hidden bullish divergence). These patterns can hint at growing buying interest even if price action hasn’t caught up yet. • Support Zones (Blue Boxes): The highlighted blue zones on the chart signal potential support levels where buyers may step in. These are mapped from prior demand areas or structural support points. • Trade Setup: Should a confirmed positive CDV divergence appear near or inside one of these blue zones, it could offer a strong case for a long entry. This would suggest that while the price may look weak, buying strength is quietly building underneath. • Managing Risk: Any long entry must be accompanied by a well-defined invalidation level—typically just below the blue box support or the lowest point of the divergence. Disclaimer: This is a technical pattern-based analysis intended for informational purposes only. Trading involves risk. Always perform your own due diligence and assess your risk appetite before entering any trades.
Long
by UmutTrades
2
BTC Bulls Target $111,653, Is This the Next Explosive BreakoutThe BTCUSDT 4-hour chart is showing a clearly bullish structure. After consolidating below the $108,664–$107,800 resistance for several weeks, Bitcoin finally broke above this area with a strong impulsive move, confirming the zone as a new support. This breakout coincides with improving market sentiment, especially after Metaplanet’s $108 million purchase of BTC and a surge in ETF inflows, which have been helping Bitcoin reclaim levels above $109,000. The price is currently consolidating just above the breakout area, indicating that buyers are defending this zone aggressively. Resistance Level 1, around $110,254, is the first significant barrier and aligns with the area that rejected price several times in late May. If this level is broken, the next target sits at Resistance Level 2 near $111,653, which was the major swing high established in early May. Holding above the current support is critical, as a decisive 4-hour close below $107,440 would invalidate this bullish scenario and likely trigger a deeper retracement. The recent price behavior suggests a potential ascending triangle breakout retest, a classic continuation pattern where buyers step in on each dip. Momentum remains strong, and the risk/reward profile favors long setups as long as the higher-low structure is preserved. Trade Setup (Bullish Idea) Entry Zone: $108,700–$109,000 (on a confirmed retest of support) Stop Loss: $107,440 (beneath the invalidation zone) Take Profit Targets o TP1: $110,254 o TP2: $111,653 The setup offers an estimated 2.4–2.7 risk/reward ratio, depending on precise entry and execution. As always, it’s recommended to wait for confirmation candles or wicks rejecting the support zone before entering. If the breakout holds and volume expands on the push through TP1, Bitcoin could quickly revisit the $112,000 area in line with broader market optimism and institutional buying. Just be aware of the invalidation level, as any breakdown below $107,440 could trigger a fast move back to prior range lows.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by SupertradeOfficial
Navigating BTC the Volatile Path to a Potential $117,000 PeakBitcoin at a Crossroads: Navigating the Volatile Path to a Potential $117,000 Peak Introduction: A Tale of Two Forces The world of Bitcoin is once again a theater of high drama. After a breathtaking surge that brought the digital asset tantalizingly close to its all-time high, the market now stands at a pivotal crossroads, caught in a tense tug-of-war between powerful bullish undercurrents and formidable macroeconomic headwinds. On one side, a confluence of unprecedented institutional adoption, potent on-chain signals, and a volatile derivatives market suggests an imminent price explosion. Analysts and investors whisper of a short-term upper bound of $117,000, with some seeing a potential tap of $116,000 as early as July amid a ‘perfect storm’ of macro catalysts. A move to this level would represent a significant 6.45% jump from Bitcoin’s recent price, a leap that seems entirely within reach when viewed through the lens of the asset's internal momentum. Yet, on the other side stands the unyielding wall of global economic reality. Bitcoin’s recent attempt to decisively conquer the $110,000 level was swiftly reversed as strong U.S. jobs data and other factors tempered expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. This macroeconomic reality has cast a long shadow over risk assets, including Bitcoin, creating significant resistance at the previous all-time high of around $112,000. Analysts point to an absence of new, retail-driven buyers and the kind of "FOMO-driven greed" that characterized previous bull runs as a key factor pinning the price down. This creates a fascinating and high-stakes dichotomy. The very structure of the Bitcoin market has undergone a "paradigm shift," with institutional exchange-traded funds (ETFs) providing a steady, relentless stream of demand. At the same time, the asset remains tethered to the decisions of central bankers and the health of the global economy. This article will delve into the intricate layers of this conflict, exploring the powerful bull case built on on-chain data and market structure, the sobering macroeconomic headwinds, the psychological barrier of the all-time high, and the long-term predictions that see Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000. As the market braces for pivotal events like the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the question on every investor's mind is which of these two powerful forces will ultimately dictate Bitcoin's next monumental move. The Bull Case: A Cauldron of On-Chain and Derivatives Strength Bitcoin’s impressive rally was not a random speculative whim; it was underpinned by a bedrock of strong on-chain and technical signals that paint a compelling picture of underlying market health and explosive potential. These indicators, which provide a transparent view into the blockchain’s activity, suggest that the current price action is just the beginning. On-Chain Analysis: The Blockchain's Transparent Ledger On-chain analysis is the practice of examining the public and immutable data on a blockchain to understand the behavior of network participants. Unlike traditional financial markets, where investor actions are opaque, Bitcoin’s ledger allows for a granular assessment of transaction volumes, wallet balances, and investor profitability, offering a data-driven glimpse into market sentiment. Two of the most powerful on-chain metrics in this context are the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The MVRV ratio is a fundamental valuation tool that compares Bitcoin's total market capitalization to its "realized capitalization." While market cap is the current price multiplied by all coins in circulation, realized cap values each coin at the price it was last moved on-chain. Essentially, MVRV compares the current market price to the average cost basis of all investors. A high MVRV ratio suggests the market is overheated, while a ratio below 1.0 signifies that the average investor is underwater, a condition often seen at market bottoms. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) offers a more immediate look at market behavior by analyzing the profitability of transactions occurring on the network. It is calculated by dividing the sale price of a Bitcoin by the price it was last acquired. • When SOPR is greater than 1, it means that, on average, coins being sold are in profit. • When SOPR is less than 1, it means coins are being sold at a loss. • A SOPR value of 1 acts as a critical psychological level. In bull markets, the market often "bounces" off this line, as investors are reluctant to sell at a loss, creating strong support. The Derivatives Market: Funding Rates and the Looming Short Squeeze Beyond the blockchain itself, the cryptocurrency derivatives market provides another layer of bullish sentiment. This market is dominated by perpetual futures contracts, which use a funding rate mechanism to stay tethered to the spot price. • Positive Funding Rate: When the futures price is higher than the spot price, longs pay shorts, indicating dominant bullish sentiment. • Negative Funding Rate: When the spot price is higher than the futures price, shorts pay longs, indicating dominant bearish sentiment. Paradoxically, a deeply negative funding rate can be an extremely bullish contrarian indicator. A crucial historical precedent exists: Bitcoin price rallied 80% the last time BTC funding rates flipped red. When funding rates are negative, it means a large number of traders are shorting the market. If the price begins to rise against them, these short sellers must buy back Bitcoin to close their positions and limit their losses. This forced buying can trigger a "short squeeze." A large cluster of potential short liquidations has been identified near the $111,320 level, with an estimated $520.31 million in leveraged positions at risk. If the price can push through this zone, it could trigger a cascade of liquidations, providing the fuel to accelerate Bitcoin’s next leg higher into price discovery. This mechanism represents one of the most powerful potential catalysts for a rapid move toward the $116K-$117K target. The Macroeconomic Maelstrom: A "Perfect Storm" of Headwinds While Bitcoin’s internal metrics flash green, its path is being obstructed by a formidable storm of macroeconomic factors. In today's interconnected financial world, no asset is immune to the policies of central banks. The recent reversal from the push beyond $110,000 is a stark reminder of this reality, as markets began to discount the odds of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates. The Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Jitters For the past several years, the price of Bitcoin has been highly correlated with monetary policy. A policy of low interest rates generally creates a favorable environment for assets like Bitcoin by lowering the opportunity cost of holding them compared to bonds or savings accounts. Conversely, a period of monetary tightening—characterized by higher interest rates—has a negative effect on Bitcoin's price. The market's sensitivity to this was on full display when strong U.S. economic data reinforced the case for keeping rates "higher for longer" to contain inflation. This immediately took the wind out of Bitcoin’s sails and halted the rally. An unexpected rate cut, however, could send Bitcoin back toward its all-time high of $112,000. All Eyes on Jackson Hole This brings into focus the immense importance of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. This annual conference is a crucial event where central bankers from around the globe discuss pressing economic issues and signal future policy directions. Speeches from key figures, particularly the Federal Reserve Chair, are scrutinized by global markets for clues about the future of monetary policy. The anticipation surrounding the event highlights its high stakes for risk assets. Market participants will be listening for any hint of a dovish pivot (a signal that rate cuts are back on the table) or a hawkish stance (a reinforcement of the "higher for longer" narrative). • A dovish signal could be the catalyst that reignites Bitcoin's rally by weakening the dollar and sending risk assets soaring. • A hawkish signal, on the other hand, could reinforce the current headwinds, potentially leading to a deeper correction for Bitcoin. The Great Wall of $112K: Why All-Time Highs Are Hard to Break Every seasoned market participant knows that previous all-time highs (ATHs) are not just numbers on a chart; they are formidable psychological barriers. For Bitcoin, the level around $112,000 represents this wall. Breaking through it requires immense momentum, and the current struggle to do so is explained by a critical missing ingredient: widespread, retail-driven Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). The Psychology of an All-Time High An ATH represents a point of maximum financial opportunity and maximum regret. This creates a powerful and complex dynamic: 1. Profit-Taking: Long-term holders and traders who bought at lower prices see the ATH as a prime opportunity to realize their gains. 2. Break-Even Selling: Investors who bought at or near the previous peak may be eager to sell as soon as their position returns to break-even. 3. Hesitation from New Buyers: For new investors, buying at an all-time high feels inherently risky, leading to hesitation. Overcoming this selling pressure requires a massive wave of new demand, a force often fueled by pure, unadulterated FOMO. The Absence of FOMO-Driven Greed FOMO, or the "Fear of Missing Out," is the force that turns a rally into a parabolic ascent, characterized by a surge in retail interest and media saturation. Analysts suggest that a key reason Bitcoin can’t break the $112K all-time high is the absence of new buyers and FOMO-driven greed. While there have been spikes in retail enthusiasm, the kind of euphoric mania seen at the peak of previous cycles has yet to fully materialize in 2025. Without that surge of irrational exuberance, there may not be enough buying pressure to absorb the natural selling that occurs at an all-time high, creating a stalemate. The Paradigm Shift: How Institutional ETFs Changed the Game While the lack of retail FOMO explains the resistance at the all-time high, the very reason Bitcoin reached this level so quickly is due to a fundamental, game-changing development: the approval and launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. This event represents a true "paradigm shift" in market structure, providing a powerful counterbalance to the whims of retail sentiment. A spot Bitcoin ETF directly holds Bitcoin and allows investors to gain exposure through traditional brokerage accounts, dramatically simplifying the investment process. This has had a revolutionary impact: 1. Accessibility and Legitimacy: ETFs have democratized access to Bitcoin for a massive new audience and conferred a new level of legitimacy on the asset class. 2. Unlocking Institutional Capital: Most importantly, ETFs created a regulated pathway for institutional investors to allocate capital to Bitcoin. The impact has been staggering, with massive ETF inflows directly fueling Bitcoin's price appreciation. In a recent two-month period, for instance, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $10 billion in inflows. This is not the fickle demand of a retail FOMO cycle; it is the steady, calculated allocation of capital from major financial players, providing a strong floor for the price. Gazing into the Crystal Ball: Near and Long-Term Price Horizons With these conflicting forces shaping the market, analysts are looking at both short-term technical targets and long-term fundamental models to chart a potential path forward. Short-Term Targets: The Path to $117,000 The immediate upper bound for Bitcoin is pegged by many analysts at $117,000, with some suggesting a move to $116K in July is possible. This target is derived from a combination of technical analysis, historical seasonal trends, and the potential for a short squeeze. A decisive break above the $112,000 all-time high would clear the path for a rapid move toward this level. The Long-Term Vision: A $200,000 Call Looking further ahead, some of the most bullish predictions from institutional players call for Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast is not based on short-term chart patterns but on a fundamental assessment of supply and demand in this new era. The reasoning is that there is simply too much institutional demand to keep prices flat for long, a trend driven by the continued success of spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing regulatory clarity. Interestingly, this bullish institutional sentiment for Bitcoin is not always extended to other major cryptocurrencies. Some outlooks are less confident that assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will hit new all-time highs this year. Challenges such as network reliability issues and the lack of similar institutional products are cited as reasons for a more tempered outlook on these other assets. This suggests a potential future where Bitcoin's performance decouples from the broader altcoin market, driven primarily by its unique status as an institutional-grade digital asset. Conclusion: The Great Tension and the Path Forward Bitcoin's current market position is one of profound tension. In the world of its own blockchain and market structure, the signals are bullish. A new era of institutional demand, evidenced by billions flowing into spot ETFs, has created a paradigm shift. This is reinforced by a derivatives market primed for a potential short squeeze. However, Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. It is also a participant in the broader financial ecosystem, where a hawkish Federal Reserve has put a damper on risk-on sentiment. This macroeconomic resistance is amplified by the psychological barrier of the all-time high, where natural profit-taking meets the absence of the retail-driven FOMO that defined past cycles. The resolution of this conflict will define the next chapter for Bitcoin. A catalyst could come from the Jackson Hole Symposium, a sudden acceleration in ETF inflows, or a shift in the macroeconomic landscape. What is certain is that Bitcoin is no longer just a retail phenomenon; it is a maturing asset on the global stage, navigating a complex interplay of internal strength and external pressures. Whether it reaches $117,000 in the coming months or faces a setback, its journey will be a masterclass in the collision of technology, finance, and human psychology.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Supply Shock Is No Longer a Theory, But a Reality In the intricate and often frenetic world of digital assets, the market is constantly sending signals. Some are loud, ephemeral flashes of volatility that capture headlines for a day. Others are quiet, seismic shifts that build slowly beneath the surface, unnoticed by the masses until they erupt with earth-shattering force. Today, the Bitcoin network is broadcasting one of these profound, underlying signals. It speaks of a disappearance, a vanishing act on a scale never before seen, pointing toward a supply shock so significant that it threatens to redefine the very concept of price discovery for the world’s premier cryptocurrency. The paradox currently facing market observers is the disconnect between Bitcoin’s somewhat range-bound price, which has struggled to decisively conquer the territory above $120,000, and the tectonic movements occurring in its fundamental market structure. While the price action might suggest a market in equilibrium, a state of indecisive calm, the data tells a story of immense and growing tension. It is a story of a collision course between two unprecedented forces: a relentless, programmatic wave of institutional demand and a rapidly dwindling, fiercely guarded supply. The central piece of evidence, the smoking gun for this impending crisis, is the state of Bitcoin reserves on cryptocurrency exchanges. These platforms, the bustling marketplaces where buyers and sellers meet, have seen their Bitcoin inventories plummet to a seven-year low. Less than 15% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply now resides on these exchanges, a figure that is as statistically stark as it is historically significant. This isn’t merely a data point; it is a profound statement of intent from the global cohort of Bitcoin holders. It signifies a monumental shift from short-term speculation to long-term conviction, a collective decision to withdraw assets from the realm of immediate liquidity and into the deep, fortified vaults of cold storage. This great disappearance is the quiet prelude to a very loud event, and to understand its implications, one must dissect the powerful forces of both supply and demand that are pulling the market to its breaking point. The Vanishing Act: Where Has All the Bitcoin Gone? To grasp the gravity of the dwindling exchange reserves, one must first understand the role of an exchange in the life cycle of a Bitcoin. An exchange is a trading floor. Assets held there are, by their very nature, liquid and available for sale. A holder who moves their Bitcoin onto an exchange is signaling an intent to trade or sell, either immediately or in the near future. Conversely, moving Bitcoin off an exchange and into a personal, self-custodied wallet—often called cold storage—is a deliberate act of preservation. It is a declaration that the owner has no immediate intention of selling. They are choosing to become a long-term holder, a saver, effectively removing their coins from the active, tradeable supply. For years, the flow of Bitcoin onto and off of exchanges has served as a reliable barometer of market sentiment. During the euphoric peaks of past bull markets, a predictable pattern emerged: as prices soared, a flood of Bitcoin would move onto exchanges as long-term holders finally decided to take profits. This influx of supply would help to satisfy the frenzied buying demand, eventually capping the rally and leading to a market correction. This cycle, however, is fundamentally different. The opposite is happening. Despite prices reaching new all-time highs, the flow has been overwhelmingly outward. Coins are leaving exchanges at a historic pace, creating a supply-side vacuum. This exodus is not a new phenomenon, but the acceleration over the past 18 months has been breathtaking. It reflects a maturing market and a hardened investor base that has learned the lessons of previous cycles. They have witnessed Bitcoin’s resilience, its ability to weather brutal bear markets and emerge stronger each time. They are no longer content with selling for a 5x or 10x profit, only to watch the asset climb another tenfold in the subsequent years. They have transitioned from treating Bitcoin as a speculative trade to embracing it as a long-term savings technology, a digital store of value in an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic world. The coins are not lost; they have simply gone home, locked away by owners who have no interest in selling at today’s prices. The Wall Street Leviathan: A New and Insatiable Source of Demand While the available supply of Bitcoin has been quietly disappearing into private wallets, a new and powerful predator has entered the ecosystem, armed with an insatiable appetite. The launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States marked the single most significant structural change in the history of the Bitcoin market. These regulated financial products, offered by the largest asset managers in the world, have constructed a permanent, one-way bridge connecting the traditional financial system to the digital asset space. This bridge is not for casual tourism; it is a superhighway for capital. The ETFs, led by BlackRock’s behemoth iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have unleashed a torrent of institutional and retail money that is systematically draining the remaining available supply. The mechanics of these ETFs are crucial to understand. Unlike futures-based products, a spot ETF must acquire and hold the underlying asset—in this case, real Bitcoin—to back the shares it issues to investors. This means that for every dollar that flows into an ETF like IBIT, its managers must go into the open market and buy a corresponding amount of Bitcoin. The scale of this operation is staggering. In a stunning testament to the demand for this new product, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has, in its short 18-month existence, begun to generate more revenue from annual fees than its long-established and immensely popular S&P 500 fund. This is not a niche product for crypto enthusiasts; it is a mainstream financial blockbuster, attracting billions from investors seeking a simple, regulated way to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This creates a relentless, programmatic buying pressure that the market has never before had to absorb. Every single trading day, the ETFs collectively purchase a significant amount of Bitcoin. This demand is constant and largely price-agnostic. It is driven by asset allocation decisions, not short-term market timing. This programmatic buying acts like a giant hydraulic pump, sucking up any loose supply available on exchanges. The daily demand from these Wall Street giants often outstrips the new supply of Bitcoin created by miners, creating a structural deficit that can only be filled by one source: the existing coins held by others. And as we’ve seen, those holders are increasingly unwilling to part with their assets. The Diamond-Handed Super-Majority: A Trillion-Dollar Standoff The collision between the insatiable demand of the ETFs and the shrinking available supply raises a critical question: why aren't the existing holders selling? With so much new money flooding into the market, basic economics would suggest that the rising price should entice current owners to sell and realize their gains. Yet, the data reveals a fascinating psychological standoff. According to research from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a "super-majority" of Bitcoin holders are currently sitting on a colossal $1.2 trillion in unrealized profits. This means that a vast portion of the network acquired their coins at prices far below the current level and are deep in the green. In any other market, such a massive overhang of profit would be seen as a significant risk, a powder keg of potential sell pressure waiting to be ignited. But in the world of Bitcoin, it has become a fortress of conviction. Glassnode’s analysis concludes that the current price, even in the six-figure range, "is not compelling enough for investors to continue selling." This is a revolutionary insight into the mindset of the modern Bitcoin investor. Their price targets have shifted dramatically. They are not looking to sell at $120,000 or even $140,000. For many, these levels are seen as mere stepping stones on the path to a much higher valuation, one that properly reflects Bitcoin’s role as a global, non-sovereign store of value. Further research into profit-taking behavior confirms this trend. The amount of realized profit—that is, coins being sold at a gain—in the current cycle has yet to match the levels seen during the peak of the 2024 rally. This suggests that the holders who were willing to sell at those prices have already done so. The remaining cohort is composed of the most steadfast believers, the "diamond hands," who are holding out for a much more significant repricing. Some analyses suggest that the Bitcoin price would notionally need to rise another 30%, toward the $140,000 mark, just to reach a point where this cohort even begins to feel tempted to part with their holdings in a meaningful way. This creates a powerful reflexive loop: the less they sell, the less supply is available, and the more explosive the potential price move when demand continues to pour in. The Macroeconomic Perfect Storm The conviction of Bitcoin holders and the flood of institutional capital are not occurring in a vacuum. They are a direct response to a global macroeconomic environment that is creating a perfect storm for a hard, scarce asset. The primary driver of this is the unprecedented expansion of the global money supply. The M2 money supply—a broad measure of currency that includes cash, checking and savings deposits, and money market funds—has reached a record high. Governments and central banks around the world have engaged in years of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus, effectively printing trillions of dollars to prop up their economies. While often necessary in the short term, this relentless monetary expansion has a corrosive long-term effect: it debases the value of fiat currencies. As the supply of dollars, euros, and yen increases, the purchasing power of each individual unit decreases. In this environment, rational economic actors begin to search for a safe harbor, a place to protect their wealth from the slow-motion erosion of inflation. Historically, this role was filled by assets like gold. Today, a growing number of individuals, corporations, and even nation-states are turning to Bitcoin. Its mathematically enforced scarcity—a hard cap of 21 million coins that can never be altered—stands in stark contrast to the infinite printability of government-issued money. This narrative has been supercharged by the recent performance of the US dollar itself. The world’s reserve currency experienced a dramatic 10.8% drop in its worst first-half performance since 1973, signaling a potential shift in global currency dynamics. As the dollar weakens, assets priced in dollars become cheaper for foreign investors, and the appeal of a non-sovereign alternative like Bitcoin grows. This macroeconomic backdrop provides the fundamental "why" behind the Bitcoin trade. It is no longer just a technological curiosity or a speculative bet; it is increasingly viewed as an essential component of a diversified portfolio, a hedge against the very real risks of monetary debasement and geopolitical instability. It is this understanding that underpins bullish price targets that sit around $170,000 and beyond. Navigating the Uncomfortable Calm With such a powerfully bullish confluence of factors, the question remains: why has Bitcoin been seemingly stuck in a consolidation pattern, unable to break out and sustain a move into the higher price ranges? Why did the market see a wobble that brought the price down to $105,000, causing anxiety among newer entrants? The answer lies in the nature of market equilibrium. Even in the most ferocious bull market, there are always sellers. Miners, who must sell some of their newly minted Bitcoin to cover their operational costs, represent a constant source of supply. Early investors may take some profits to diversify their wealth. Short-term traders will try to play the ranges, and even some of the capital in the ETFs will inevitably be redeemed, forcing the funds to sell a corresponding amount of Bitcoin. The current price range below $120,000 represents the battleground where the relentless, programmatic buying from the ETF leviathan is meeting and absorbing this natural, daily sell pressure. The market is in a state of accumulation and consolidation, building a strong base of support before its next major move. The fact that crypto market sentiment has held steady, even during price dips and the start of the third quarter—a period historically known for its weak seasonality—is a testament to the market's newfound maturity. The "weak hands," or investors with low conviction, have likely been shaken out, leaving a stronger, more resilient base of holders. This period of sideways price action is likely to be deceptive. The historical seasonality of Bitcoin suggests that summer can often be a period of lackluster performance, lulling market participants into a state of complacency. The idea that Summer 2025 will "catch everyone off guard" stems from this dynamic. While the price chart may look boring, the underlying supply and demand forces are becoming ever more tightly coiled. The pressure is building, and the longer the market consolidates, the more violent the eventual breakout is likely to be. The Inevitable Collision The story of Bitcoin in 2025 is the story of an inevitable collision. On one side, you have the most powerful force of demand the asset has ever known: a fleet of Wall Street ETFs, led by the world's largest asset manager, programmatically buying Bitcoin every single day. This demand is structural, relentless, and here to stay. On the other side, you have the most convicted group of holders in Bitcoin’s history. They are a super-majority, sitting on over a trillion dollars in profit, who have explicitly signaled through their actions and on-chain data that they have no intention of selling at these prices. They are withdrawing their coins from the market at a historic rate, creating a supply desert. The dwindling reserve of Bitcoin on exchanges is the ticking clock in this grand drama. It is the visible measure of the supply shock in progress. Each day, the ETFs arrive in the market to fill their orders, only to find the shelves are increasingly bare. The deficit they create must be filled by prying coins from the diamond hands of long-term holders. But those holders have made their price clear, and it is not $120,000. Therefore, the current market is not in a state of calm, but in a state of profound tension. It is the quiet moment before the lightning strike. The forces of an institutional-grade demand shock and a historic holder-induced supply squeeze are on a direct and unavoidable collision course. The question is no longer if this tension will resolve, but when and with what magnitude. The great disappearance of Bitcoin from the open market is the final signal that the supply problem is no longer a distant forecast. It is here, and it is about to change everything.
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
1
Bitcoin Awaits Breakout Above $114K🪙 Current Price: ~$109,500 📈 Trend: Bullish but facing strong resistance at $114,000 📉 Support: $106,000–$107,000 📌 Outlook: Breakout above $114K could lead to $130K+. Otherwise, possible pullback to $106K. 📊 Key Drivers: ETF inflows, Fed rate cut expectations, weak USD. 💡 Strategy: 🔺 Buy: $107,000 – $107,500 → TP $114,000 | SL $106,000 🔻 Sell (take profit): $114,000 – $115,000 → SL if closes below $112,000
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
Bitcoin BTC Trade Plan: Watching for Breakout or Pullback Entry📊 Currently watching BTC (Bitcoin) as price action remains bullish overall, but we're approaching a key decision point 🎯 💹 Price is pushing higher, but with some signs of exhaustion after the recent rally ⚠️ — and with the weekend approaching, we could either see a continuation higher or a healthy pullback I’m keeping an eye on two potential trade scenarios: 1️⃣ A break and clean retest of the recent high, which could offer a continuation long if momentum follows through 🚀 2️⃣ A retracement into equilibrium — a deeper pullback toward fair value 📉 — which could also present a high-probability long setup if confirmed with structure and reaction 📈 Either way, I’m letting the market reveal its hand and waiting for one of these setups to play out before committing 💡 💬 Not financial advice — always assess your own risk and confirm with your own analysis.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
Bitcoin Eyes Breakout if Clears $114,000📊 Market Overview: • Bitcoin trades around $109,350, with an intraday high near $109,610 • Rosenberg Research notes BTC could rally ~6% to clear $114,000, potentially triggering a 25% rise to $143,000 on the back of ETF inflows, a weaker dollar, and Fed rate cut expectations 📉 Technical Analysis: •Key Resistance: ~$114,000; followed by the psychological $112,000 zone . •Nearest Support: $107,000 (prior highs/descending channel bottom) and key floor at $100,000 •EMA Levels: o Price consolidates near 50-day EMA ($105,800), a crucial confluence zone •Candlestick/Momentum: o RSI near 50 (neutral), o Flag pattern breakout suggests continuation potential 📌 Viewpoint: Bitcoin may extend its rally if it breaks above $114,000, targeting $137,000–$143,000. If rejected, a pullback toward $107,000 is likely before bouncing. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy SELL BTC/USD at: $113,500–$114,000 🎯 TP: $110,000–$110,500 ❌ SL: $114,500 BUY BTC/USD at: $107,000–$108,000 🎯 TP: $112,000–$113,000 ❌ SL: $106,000
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
Breaking: Bitcoin Just Broke the $110k Resistant Next Top $115kThe price of the first crypto currency ever created saw a noteworthy uptick to reclaim the $110k price point however, the move was short-lived as the asset retraced to $109k mark but present price chart depicts a move to the $115k resistant point in the short term. With the Relative strength index (RSI) at 63, Bitcoin might be inches away from claiming the $115k pivot amidst build up momentum and institutional adoption. further bullish metrics include the asset trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day Moving Averages (MA) respectfully.
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
ARPAUSDT Forming Falling WedgeARPAUSDT is drawing fresh attention from crypto traders as it forms a classic falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe. This technical pattern is widely recognized as a strong bullish reversal signal when backed by healthy volume and growing investor interest. The falling wedge indicates that the downtrend is losing momentum, and a breakout to the upside could trigger a significant move. With current market dynamics, ARPAUSDT is showing promising signs that it could deliver an expected gain of 80% to 90% or more once this pattern resolves. Good volume levels in recent sessions confirm that accumulation is happening quietly, which is often the case before a breakout from a wedge pattern. Traders looking for high-probability setups should keep an eye on the breakout zone around the wedge’s upper trendline. A confirmed close above this resistance with increased volume could be the catalyst for a strong rally. ARPA’s fundamentals, coupled with positive sentiment from investors taking interest in the project, add extra fuel to the potential upside. As more altcoins regain momentum, ARPAUSDT stands out as one of the most interesting pairs to watch for short- to mid-term gains. Technical traders and pattern-based investors often target these setups to capture explosive price action. Staying patient for a clean breakout and using proper risk management will be crucial to maximize the reward potential in this setup. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
BTC: Price to 134,500$ , FVG, Fib 0.5 and 0.618 ratio ?Price to 134,500$: Bitcoin is now moving in a triangle pattern, which is getting smaller. The price is around $107,758. Here is possible move is a breakout to the downside first, where the price may drop to fill the "Fair Value Gap" area, which is marked in purple. This area is between the Fibonacci levels of 0.5 and 0.618. After that, Bitcoin could go up again and reach the price of $134,000. Trade Ideas: I marked 2 areas with arrow let the price reach here and wait for confirmation in both areas. Specially in Fair Value Gap area. Trade Signal: I will provide both trade signal here so follow my account and you can check my previous analysis regarding BITCOIN. So don't miss trade opportunity so follow must. BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P CRYPTO:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSD
Long
by rayhanrafi7
#BTCUSDT Big Pump Next Hour - Bitcoin, BTCUSD, BTCUSDT 📉 Double Bottom Pattern Forming – Potential Reversal Setup The current price structure is showing signs of a Double Bottom – a classic bullish reversal pattern. After an extended downtrend, this pattern suggests that the market may be preparing for a trend reversal from this key demand zone. 🔹 Trade Setup Entry, Targets, and Stop Loss (SL) are marked on the chart. Entry: Upon breakout confirmation above the neckline. Stop Loss: Just below the recent swing low to manage downside risk. Targets: Calculated using the measured move method from the bottom to the neckline . 🔹 Risk & Money Management (Professional Approach) To maintain consistent profitability and protect capital, strict risk management is essential. For this setup: 🔸 Position Sizing: Based on a fixed % of total capital (typically 1–2% of account equity per trade). 🔸 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Minimum of 1:2, ideally higher. 🔸 Stop Loss Discipline: No arbitrary changes after entry. SL only adjusted for breakeven or trailing stops once price moves favorably. 🔸 Trade Management: Secure partial profits at key levels, trail stops as structure forms. 🔸 Capital Allocation: Avoid overexposure. Trade fits within overall portfolio strategy. 💬 Let the setup come to you. React, don’t predict. 🔁 Like, comment, or share your thoughts below! BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P INDEX:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTO:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSD
Long
by rayhanrafi7
1
Bitcoin May Break Higher if $108K Clears📊 Market: BTC trades around $106,860, driven by strong ETF inflows and weaker USD ahead of Fed rate decisions. 📉 Technical: • Resistance: $107,400–108,000 → breakout may target $110,000+ • Support: $106,500–106,800 → next at $105,500 • EMA: Price above EMA9 → short-term uptrend • Momentum: RSI > 80, Stoch high → upside potential but overbought 📌 Outlook: BTC could rise if $108K breaks. If not, expect a pullback to $106,800. 💡 Trade Setup: 🔺 BUY BTC/USD: $107,000–107,200 🎯 TP: 1000–2000 pts ❌ SL: $106,500 🔻 SELL BTC/USD: $108,000–108,200 🎯 TP: $106,800–107,000 ❌ SL: $108,500
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
Whales Dump on Wall Street, Fueling Bitcoin's 'Inevitable' SurgeIn the high-stakes world of cryptocurrency, where fortunes are made and lost in the blink of an eye, a new narrative is taking shape. With Bitcoin's price hypothetically hovering around a robust $107,000, a significant portion of market analysis now suggests that a new all-time high is not just a possibility, but an inevitability. This confidence stems from a complex interplay of technical strength, unprecedented institutional demand, and a massive, yet healthy, transfer of wealth from early adopters to the new titans of finance. The market is currently witnessing a fascinating dynamic: while the price consolidates above the monumental $100,000 psychological barrier, long-term holders, often referred to as "OG whales," are systematically selling their holdings. This activity, which could be misconstrued as bearish, is being interpreted by many as a necessary and constructive phase. Instead of suppressing the price, this distribution is meeting a voracious appetite from Wall Street, primarily through the mechanism of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This creates a state of equilibrium, a period of sideways consolidation where the market digests enormous gains and builds a foundation for its next explosive move. The target on the horizon is a liquidity cluster around $109,000, a key level that, if decisively flipped to support, could unlock a path to uncharted territory. This article will delve into the multifaceted dynamics of this hypothetical market scenario. It will explore the significance of consolidating above $100,000, dissect the "great transfer" of Bitcoin from early believers to institutional giants, and analyze the technical and on-chain metrics pointing toward an imminent breakout. Finally, it will consider the potential risks and counterarguments that could challenge the prevailing bullish thesis, providing a comprehensive overview of a market at a pivotal crossroads. Part 1: The New Paradigm - Consolidating Above $100,000 The act of breaking and holding a price level as significant as $100,000 represents more than just a numerical achievement; it is a profound psychological and structural shift for Bitcoin. In this hypothetical scenario, the market is not just visiting this level but is actively building a base above it, a process known as consolidation. This phase is crucial, characterized by sideways price movement within a defined range, often accompanied by decreasing trading volume, as the market takes a collective breath and establishes a new sense of fair value. The Psychology of a Six-Figure Asset For years, $100,000 was a distant, almost mythical target for Bitcoin. Surpassing and, more importantly, sustaining this level transforms market perception. It solidifies Bitcoin's status as a mature, global macro asset, moving it further away from its speculative past. This psychological victory attracts a new wave of capital from more conservative investors, wealth funds, and corporations who may have been hesitant to enter before such a milestone was reached. The consolidation phase above this level acts as a proof of stability, demonstrating that the asset can absorb significant profit-taking without collapsing, thereby building trust and confidence for the next wave of adoption. Market Structure and Institutional Support This period of stability is not happening in a vacuum. It is underpinned by a fundamental change in market structure, primarily the advent and overwhelming success of spot Bitcoin ETFs. These regulated financial products have provided a seamless bridge for Wall Street to pour billions of dollars into Bitcoin, creating a formidable wall of buy-side demand. In this scenario, where Bitcoin oscillates between $102,000 and $110,000, spot ETFs would be consistently recording massive net inflows, absorbing the supply being offered by sellers. This dynamic is a textbook example of healthy consolidation. It is a tug-of-war where the immense selling pressure from profit-takers is effectively matched by the persistent buying pressure from new institutional entrants. This prevents a sharp price decline and allows the market to methodically transfer coins from one cohort to another without inducing panic. Technically, this phase often forms recognizable patterns like sideways ranges, bullish flags, or ascending triangles, all of which suggest that pressure is building for an eventual breakout to the upside. The decreasing volume during this time indicates that the market is reaching an equilibrium before the next major directional move. Historical Precedent in a New Era Bitcoin has experienced consolidation phases after breaking previous major milestones, such as $1,000 and $20,000. However, the current hypothetical consolidation above $100,000 is fundamentally different in both scale and participants. Previous cycles were largely driven by retail investors and a smaller group of early adopters. The current cycle is defined by the heavyweight presence of institutional players who bring not only massive capital but also a long-term strategic investment horizon. The amount of capital required to absorb selling pressure at a six-figure price point is orders of magnitude greater than in any previous cycle. The fact that the market can achieve this stability highlights the depth and maturity it has developed. While past consolidations were precursors to further retail-driven mania, the current phase is about the systematic absorption of early investor supply by the largest financial institutions in the world, setting the stage for a rally built on a much stronger and more diverse foundation. This isn't just a pause; it's the construction of a launchpad for the next chapter in Bitcoin's story. Part 2: The "Great Transfer" - Long-Term Holders vs. Wall Street At the heart of the market's current dynamic is a historic transfer of wealth. This is the moment where the earliest and most steadfast believers in Bitcoin, the "OG Whales" or Long-Term Holders (LTHs), are realizing their life-changing gains by selling to the new behemoths of the financial world: Wall Street institutions. This process is not the bearish signal it might imply, but rather a critical market function that fuels the bull run's continuation. Defining the Players: "OG Whales" and Long-Term Holders Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are typically defined in on-chain analysis as addresses that have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days (approximately five months). These are investors who have weathered significant volatility and have a deep conviction in the asset. "OG Whales" are a subset of this group, representing individuals or entities who accumulated vast amounts of Bitcoin in its nascent stages, often at prices of three figures or less. For them, selling at over $100,000 represents astronomical returns on their initial investment. Their motivation to sell is rational and expected. It is a common market pattern for patient bottom buyers to take profits as the market approaches and surpasses new all-time highs. They understand that the euphoria surrounding these record prices is what attracts the necessary buy-side demand to absorb their large sell orders. This selling, or "distribution," is a hallmark of every Bitcoin bull market peak. The key question is whether the demand is strong enough to absorb this supply without crashing the price. Deconstructing the "Dumping on Wall Street" Narrative The essence of this transfer is that since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, LTHs have been the primary source of selling pressure. They are, in effect, providing the liquidity that the newly launched ETFs require to meet the relentless demand from their clients. This dynamic is precisely why the price has been able to stabilize at such high levels. The institutional buying frenzy is absorbing the supply unloaded by LTHs. This is not a malicious act of suppression but a symbiotic relationship: LTHs need massive buyers to sell to, and Wall Street needs massive sellers to source coins from. This is simply the natural ebb and flow of a market cycle where supply and demand are meeting at a new, higher equilibrium. On-Chain Evidence of a Healthy Distribution Several on-chain metrics provide a clear window into this phenomenon, confirming that the current selling is a sign of a healthy bull market, not an impending top. • Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): This metric shows the degree of realized profit for all coins moved on-chain. In this scenario, the LTH-SOPR would be extremely high, indicating that the coins being sold were acquired at a much lower cost basis and are now being sold for massive profits. While this signals profit-taking, it is typical of a bull market and, on its own, does not signal a top. • Realized Profit: On-chain data would show a massive spike in realized profits, confirming that sellers are locking in gains. The market's ability to absorb these profits and continue consolidating is a sign of immense strength. • Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) / Value Days Destroyed (VDD): These metrics measure the activity of older coins. A spike in VDD is synonymous with the LTH cohort spending their coins. This typically peaks shortly after breaking all-time highs because sellers need the liquidity that new buyers bring. The fact that this selling is being met with such strong institutional demand prevents it from turning into a bear market trigger. • Long-Term Holder Supply: While some LTHs are selling, the overall supply held by this cohort may still be growing or stabilizing. This is because investors who bought six months prior are continuously "aging" into LTH status. This indicates that while the oldest hands are selling, a new generation of convicted holders is forming, providing a solid foundation for the market. In essence, the "great transfer" is a feature, not a bug, of the current bull market. It is a sign of Bitcoin's maturation, where the asset is moving from the strong hands of early pioneers to the deep pockets of the global financial system. This process allows the market to de-risk, shed its over-leveraged players, and build a stronger base for what many believe is the inevitable next leg up. Part 3: The Path to $109K and Beyond - Technical and Liquidity Analysis With the market having established a strong foundation above $100,000, all eyes turn to the next key resistance levels. Technical and on-chain analysis points to a significant cluster of liquidity around the $109,000 mark, which is viewed as the final hurdle before Bitcoin can enter a new phase of price discovery. The argument for the "inevitability" of a new all-time high rests on a confluence of bullish technical patterns, resetting momentum indicators, and the overwhelming force of market liquidity. Understanding Liquidity at $109,000 In financial markets, liquidity refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without causing a significant price change. On a price chart, liquidity is concentrated at levels with a high density of buy and sell orders. The area around $109,000 to $111,000 represents a major liquidity cluster. This is composed of: • Sell Orders (Asks): A large number of investors who bought at lower prices have placed take-profit orders at this psychological and technical level. • Short Position Liquidations: Traders who are betting against Bitcoin have placed their stop-losses above this resistance. If the price breaks through, these short positions are automatically closed with a buy order, creating a "short squeeze" that adds explosive fuel to the rally. Analysis of order book data shows significant liquidation levels stacked just above this zone. Successfully breaking through and absorbing this sell-side liquidity would remove a significant barrier, clearing the path for a rapid move higher. A decisive flip of the $109,000 level from resistance to support is what bulls are watching for as the ultimate confirmation of upward momentum. Bullish Technical Indicators The consolidation phase has allowed Bitcoin's technical indicators to cool off and prepare for the next advance. • Chart Patterns: On higher timeframes, the price action is forming classic bullish continuation patterns. There is potential for formations like an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern or a bullish engulfing candlestick, both of which have historically high success rates in predicting upward moves. A bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, for instance, has shown a high probability of leading to new local highs when appearing in a broader uptrend. • Momentum Oscillators: Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) have likely reset from "overbought" conditions during the consolidation. This reset is healthy and necessary, allowing momentum to build again from a neutral base rather than an overheated one. It signals that the market has shed its speculative froth and is ready for a more sustainable trend. • Moving Averages: Throughout the consolidation period, the price would find strong support at key moving averages, such as the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) or the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). These levels act as dynamic support, with dip buyers consistently stepping in, reinforcing the strength of the underlying trend. • The "Inevitability" Thesis Synthesized The argument that a new all-time high is "inevitable" is built on the convergence of these powerful forces: 1. Unprecedented Demand: The constant, price-agnostic inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs provide a demand floor that the market has never experienced before. 2. Supply Absorption: The selling pressure from long-term holders, which would have crushed the market in previous cycles, is being successfully absorbed by this new institutional demand. 3. Healthy Reset: The market has undergone a healthy consolidation, allowing technicals to cool off, leverage to be flushed out, and a strong support base to be built. 4. Psychological Breakthrough: The conquest of the $100,000 level has fundamentally altered market perception and opened the door to price discovery, with the next logical target being the liquidity pool at $109,000. While no outcome in financial markets is ever truly guaranteed, the confluence of persistent institutional buying, constructive on-chain dynamics, and bullish technical setups creates a powerful case that Bitcoin is coiling for a significant breakout. The move through $109,000 is seen not as a question of "if," but "when." Part 4: Risks and Counterarguments Despite the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in this hypothetical scenario, a prudent analysis requires examining the potential risks and counterarguments that could challenge or delay the ascent to new all-time highs. The cryptocurrency market remains susceptible to a variety of internal and external shocks, and overconfidence can be a precursor to sharp corrections. Macroeconomic Headwinds Bitcoin's increasing integration into the global financial system means it is more sensitive to macroeconomic conditions than ever before. A sudden and severe global recession, an unexpected spike in inflation leading to aggressive monetary tightening by central banks, or major geopolitical conflicts could trigger a "risk-off" event across all asset classes, including Bitcoin. Investors might flee to the perceived safety of cash or government bonds, causing even the strong institutional demand for Bitcoin to waver. It is often noted that traders wait for clarity on key macroeconomic data and policy updates before committing to a trend, and any negative surprises could trigger a sell-off. Overwhelming Profit-Taking The thesis of a new all-time high hinges on the ability of institutional demand to absorb the selling from long-term holders. However, there is a risk that this supply could become too overwhelming. The profits held by early investors are immense, and there may be a price point—perhaps on the approach to $110,000 or just beyond—where profit-taking accelerates to a pace that even the ETFs cannot sustain. If a large cohort of whales decides to sell in unison, it could create a supply shock that temporarily breaks the market structure and forces a deeper correction. Market Exhaustion and Valuation Metrics While consolidation is healthy, a prolonged sideways period can sometimes signal exhaustion rather than accumulation. On-chain metrics that compare Bitcoin's market value to its realized value are crucial for gauging how overheated the market is. These tools help identify periods of extreme overvaluation. If such metrics were to enter their highest zones, it would suggest that the market is reaching peak froth, making it vulnerable to a sharp reversal, regardless of the positive narrative. It is understood that while Bitcoin's price has a strong correlation to global liquidity, internal market dynamics can cause it to decouple, especially during periods of extreme valuation. Regulatory and Black Swan Risks The risk of unforeseen "black swan" events always looms over the market. This could include a sudden and harsh regulatory crackdown in a major jurisdiction, the collapse of a major crypto exchange or institution, or the discovery of a critical flaw in the Bitcoin protocol itself. Furthermore, the concentration of Bitcoin within a few large ETF products, while providing demand, also introduces a new vector of risk. If these institutions were to face regulatory pressure or decide to offload their holdings for strategic reasons, the resulting sell pressure could be catastrophic. In conclusion, while the path to a new all-time high appears clear and well-supported by current dynamics, it is by no means guaranteed. A combination of adverse macroeconomic shifts, overwhelming selling pressure, extreme valuations, or an unexpected black swan event could easily derail the bullish momentum. Investors and analysts must remain vigilant, balancing the optimistic on-chain and technical data with a realistic appreciation of the inherent risks in this volatile asset class. Conclusion The hypothetical scenario of Bitcoin consolidating above $100,000 while eyeing a breakout to $109,000 and beyond represents a pivotal moment in the asset's history. It paints a picture of a market that has achieved a new level of maturity, driven by a paradigm shift in its investor base. The central thesis—that a new all-time high is now "inevitable"—is not born from baseless hype, but from a powerful confluence of observable market forces. The successful establishment of the six-figure price level as a support floor, rather than a speculative peak, is the first pillar of this argument. This consolidation is made possible by the voracious and sustained demand from Wall Street institutions, which are using spot Bitcoin ETFs to absorb the immense selling pressure from early adopters. This dynamic, the "great transfer" of Bitcoin from OG whales to institutional treasuries, is not a sign of a market top but a healthy and necessary distribution that de-risks the market and fuels the next leg of the bull run. The on-chain analysis provides a framework for understanding this phase not as stagnation, but as a constructive consolidation where the market builds energy for a parabolic advance. This narrative is supported by bullish technical patterns, resetting momentum indicators, and a clear liquidity target at $109,000, which, once breached, could trigger a powerful short squeeze and propel Bitcoin into a new phase of price discovery. However, this bullish outlook must be tempered with an awareness of the significant risks that remain. Macroeconomic instability, the sheer scale of potential profit-taking, and the ever-present threat of regulatory or black swan events could challenge the prevailing trend. Ultimately, this analysis reveals a Bitcoin that is at a crossroads, but one where the path forward appears more clearly defined and well-supported than ever before. The interplay between the old guard of crypto and the new titans of finance is forging a stronger, more resilient market. While no outcome is certain, the evidence strongly suggests that Bitcoin is not at the end of its run, but is merely pausing to build a higher launchpad for its journey into the financial mainstream.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
1
Analysis and layout of BTC trend in the third quarter📰 News information： 1. Pay attention to the movement of the cryptocurrency market 2. The impact of DAA, etc. 📈 Technical Analysis： As demand weakens and supply pressure rises, BTC's network valuation exceeds the speed of activity. Exchange inflows and negative DAA divergences indicate that despite price stability, the risk of selling remains. Currently, BTC is experiencing a retracement after a rebound. In the short term, it is still possible to retrace to 106,500 and then rise after stabilizing. 🎯 Trading Points： SELL 108000-107500 TP 107000-106500 BUY 106500-106000 TP 107500-108000 In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Allenbrowser-3
1
BTC Efforts to break the trend to create a new ATHPlan BTC today: 30 June 2025 Related Information:!!! As of Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $108,500, approximately 3% below its all-time high. Ethereum (ETH) has closed above a key resistance level, indicating the potential for a sustained upward movement. Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) is approaching a critical threshold; a confirmed breakout could strengthen bullish momentum in the near term. Bitcoin approaches record highs The price of Bitcoin surged by 7.32% last week, closing above the $108,000 mark. As of the latest update on Monday, it remains near $108,500. Should the current upward trend persist, BTC may extend its rally toward the all-time high of $111,980 recorded on May 22. A decisive close above this level could pave the way for further gains, potentially establishing a new all-time high at $120,000." personal opinion:!!! BTC buying pressure is prevented by selling pressure according to H4 trendline, accumulating and soon surpassing ATH Important price zone to consider :!!! support zone : 107.000 ; 104.600 Sustainable trading to beat the market
Long
by JJainy
1
BITCOIN - Price can continue grow inside flat to $107933 level#BTC The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is expected to break and continue upward. We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average once again. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the upward move with a breakout. We have a support area at the lower boundary of the channel at 106500, acting as strong support from which the price can rebound. We have a major support area in green that pushed the price upward at 106000. Entry price: 106736 First target: 106996 Second target: 107434 Third target: 107933 To manage risk, don't forget stop loss and capital management. When you reach the first target, save some profits and then change your stop order to an entry order. For inquiries, please comment. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
BTC Slumps Below 100000, Rebounds to Test 109500 Short Zone💎 BTC Rebounds After 100000 Drop, Eyes Short at 109500 Resistance 📊 BTC dipped below the 100000 threshold 🔻 before rebounding near 98000 🔺—a move tied to DXY weakness and easing geopolitical tensions. Now challenging the 110000 mark 🔼, it faces stiff resistance at 109500. First-time 110000 tests often spark pullbacks, making shorts the favored play here 📉. 🚀 Sell@108500 - 107500 🚀 TP 106500 - 105500 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sovereign_11
8
BTC Is Replaying a Bullish Fractal >>> Are You Watching?Hello guys! I see a deja vu here! Let’s look at the historical daily chart (Jan–May 2025): What happened? Initial Drop (Yellow Oval): Bitcoin approached a key S&D zone but didn't touch it, triggering a short-lived bounce before dropping again. Second Drop (Red Ovals): This time, price precisely touched the demand zone, triggering a clean bullish reversal. What followed was a strong trend breakout, sustained higher lows, and an eventual surge past prior resistance levels. Current 4H Chart Setup: A Mirror Image? Yellow Highlight: Once again, we saw a bounce that didn't quite touch the key demand zone ($98K–$100K). Red Zone Prediction: If this mirrors the historical move, the price is likely to return and touch this S&D area before launching a bullish leg. Blue Path Projection: A sharp reversal is expected post-touch, aiming toward $111K–$113K as the next key resistance zone. The descending trendline adds confluence ___________________ History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Often Rhymes Based on this fractal analysis, Bitcoin is likely forming the same bullish base seen earlier in 2025. The setup hinges on one key event: a return to the $99K–$100K zone, where demand is likely to step in aggressively. If the pattern repeats, the current market may offer one last high-reward long opportunity before a parabolic rally.
by melikatrader94
23
BTCUSD TRADE SETUP 📈 **Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1H Chart Analysis — June 28, 2025** 🔍 **Pattern Identified: Bullish Flag Breakout** 🧠 **1. Market Context** * This is the **1-hour chart** of **BTC/USD** on Binance. * Price recently formed a **bullish flag pattern**, which is a **continuation pattern** signaling a potential breakout in the **direction of the previous trend (upward)**. 🔧 **2. Technical Breakdown** 🔹 **Trend Before the Flag** * Price had a strong **impulsive move up** from \~105,000 to \~107,800. * That was followed by a **consolidation phase** forming a downward sloping **channel** (blue parallel lines), creating the **flag**. 🔹 **Flag Channel** * Price oscillated inside this flag for nearly 2 days (June 26–28). * The **channel** is clearly defined, and price **respected both upper and lower bounds** during the consolidation. 🚀 **3. Breakout Confirmation** * Price has now **broken out of the upper boundary** of the flag. * A clean **break and candle close** above the trendline suggests **bullish momentum** is returning. * This breakout is occurring around the **107,400–107,800** zone, which is also a **key structure level** acting as local resistance. --- 🎯 **4. Trade Setup** ✅ **Entry:** * Around **107,400–107,800**, post-confirmation of the breakout. ❌ **Stop-Loss (SL):** * Placed just below the **flag support / demand zone**, around **106,800**. * This protects against a fake breakout or pullback into the flag. 🎯 **Target (TP):** * Projected at **110,000**, which is aligned with the height of the initial flagpole projected from the breakout point. * This also represents a psychological round number and a previous resistance level. --- 📊 **Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR)** * **RRR = \~3:1** * For every \$1 risked, the potential reward is \$3 — **excellent reward structure**. --- 📌 **Key Insights for the Traders** * This is a **classic bullish flag breakout** play—very reliable in trending markets. * **Volume confirmation** (not shown in chart but should be checked live) is important — higher volume during breakout gives stronger conviction. * Watch for a possible **retest of the breakout level** (around 107,800) before the next move up.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Nadia_farhat