EURGBP: Gap is Going to Be Filled! 🇪🇺🇬🇧
I see a nice gap up opening on EURGBP.
After a strong up movement, the pair finally
leaves strong bearish clues.
I see a bearish breakout of a neckline of a head & shoulders pattern
on an hourly time frame after a test of a key intraday resistance.
It looks to me that the price is going to drop and fill the gap.
Goals: 0.8582 / 0.8567
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Candlestick Analysis
Gold continues bullish runAccording to Goldman Sachs, China actually purchased a whooping 50 tonnes of Gold in February , or 10 times more than officially reported.
They also increased their gold holding by 5 tonnes in March. In April current reports says that they also sold some seized bitcoin via offshore exchanges to accumulate more gold.
Gold is also preferred over bitcoin as a safe haven asset in times of war. Which means that the demand for gold continues to increase as long as warring countries does not resolve their conflict.
Here is my intra-day long setup. I'm taking a buy as soon as price retest that broken support @ 3395 targeting take profit @ 3425 for a 1:3 risk-reward.
Another remarkable leap by Nifty. Channel top approaching. Nifty gained some serious ground again today closing 273.9 points up from previous close. The zone between 24202 and 24479 is the zone which stand between full blown Bull rally and some consolidation. The regressing parallel channel which started after Nifty made a high 26277 can be overcome if we get a closing above 24366. Immediate resistance is near 24202 before we reach there. Once we get a weekly closing above 24479 Bulls will take total control of the market. In such a scenario the Nifty can find resistance near 24830 before it can regain 25K levels.
If Nifty fails to conquer 24202, 24366 or 24479 then the supports will be near 23786. Bears can come back in picture if we get a closing above 23786. In such a scenario Mother and Father lines of hourly chart will play the supporting role at 23411 and 23101. Again near 23101 in addition to the Father line there is also Mid-Channel support thus this level should be considered a major support zone.
Since RSI of hourly chart is above 80 there is a chance of slight correction and consolidation which should also be looked at while taking fresh positions. RSI above 80 indicates that the positions might be just slightly be in the overbought zone.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
USDCHF: Classic Trend-Following Trading Setup Analyzing the price movement of 📉USDCHF.
Following a significant downward trend, the price started to consolidate within a horizontal channel on a 4-hour chart.
The violation of the channel's lower boundary indicates a strong bearish indication, suggesting a likely continuation of the downward trend.
Goal - 1.4902
Short trade
Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
🕒 Time: 9:00 PM
(Tokyo Session PM)
Pair: SOLUSDT
🕜 Time Frame: 15min TF
🎯 Direction: Sellside
Trade Details:
Entry: 141.811
Profit Level: 137.911 (+2.75%)
Stop Level: 142.038 (-0.16%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 17.18
This sellside trade is driven by clear bearish structural signals, a premium price rejection, and liquidity-driven execution within the Tokyo PM session context.
Long trade
15min TF overview
📅 Trade Log Entry
Pair: SOLUSDT
Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM (NY Time)
Session: New York PM
Entry 136.068
Profit level 137.391 (0.97%)
Stop level 136.023 (0.03%)
RR 29.4
📊 Trade Setup – Buyside Idea
🧠 Strategy Components:
Volatility Zones Identified:
🔹 White: Resistance zone
🔹 Green: Support zone
🔹 Yellow: Midpoint (key POI)
Liquidity Sweep: Price swept below support capturing liquidity before reversing.
Order Block & Choch: Institutional buy zone confirmed with a bullish change of character.
Break of Midpoint (Brk): Confirmed directional bias following midpoint breakout.
30sec TF overview
Short trade
📉 Sell-side Trade – SOL/USDT
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
⏰ Time: 4:00 AM (NY Time) – London Session AM
🕓 Structure: 4Hr Timeframe
🎯 Target: Liquidity low
Trade Details:
Entry: 137.133
Take Profit (TP): 133.559 (–2.61%)
Stop Loss (SL): 137.275 (+0.10%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 22.17
"This is a refined supply zone rejection, with the 4-hour structure aligning for a liquidity sweep, confirming a sell-side trade setup." and following early executed sell side trade.
15min FT overview.
Long trade
📈 Buy-side Trade – DOGE/USDT
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
⏰ Time: noon – NY Session PM
🔍 Observed Timeframe: 15min
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 0.15300
Take Profit (TP): 0.15452 (+0.99%)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.15277 (–0.15%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.61
🧠 Context / Trade Notes:
Trade executed off a reactive LTF demand zone with a bullish structure shift.
0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels in confluence above.
Entry followed a liquidity sweep + quick recovery, suggesting smart money support.
The tight stop below body/wick support kept risk controlled and allowed for high RR.
“Does size matter?” when it comes to backtesting?It’s the kind of question that gets a few smirks, sure. But when it comes to backtesting trading strategies, it’s not a joke, it’s the difference between confidence and false hope.
Let’s get real for a minute: the size of your candles absolutely matters.
What you don’t see can hurt you
Most people start testing on bigger timeframes. It’s faster, easier on the eyes, and the results look clean. But clean doesn’t mean correct.
Larger candles blur the details. That one nice-looking 4-hour candle? Inside, price could’ve spiked, reversed, chopped around, or triggered your stop before closing where it did. You’d never know. And that’s the problem.
You might think your entry worked beautifully… but only because the data smoothed out everything that actually happened.
A backtest should feel like a real trade
Trading isn't just about the final price. It’s about what price does to get there. That messy movement inside the candle? That’s where most trades are made or broken.
If your strategy is even remotely reactive, waiting for structure, confirmation, retests, or anything time-sensitive, you need to see what price did between the open and close.
And the only way to see that? Use smaller candles.
Smaller data, clearer picture
1-minute candles might look overwhelming at first, but they give you something the higher timeframes just can’t: behavior.
Not just outcomes. Not just win/loss stats. But the actual shape of the move, the hesitation, the fakeouts, the precise moment when the trade made sense—or didn’t.
And once you start testing with that level of detail, your strategy either earns your trust… or shows its cracks.
So how small should you go?
There’s no one-size-fits-all here. But as a general rule: if your idea relies on precision, go small. Test it on 1-minute or 5-minute charts, even if you plan to execute on higher timeframes. You’ll quickly see if the entry makes sense, or if you’ve been relying on candle-close hindsight.
Yes, it takes longer. Yes, you’ll stare at noisy charts for hours. But your strategy will thank you.
Watch out for “too good to be true”
One last thing, if your backtest results look flawless on 1h or 4h candles, pause. That’s often a sign that you’re testing a story, not a strategy.
Zoom in. See what actually happens. You might be surprised at how different the same trade looks when you’re not glossing over the details.
TL;DR:
In backtesting, size absolutely matters. Smaller candles reveal real behavior. Bigger ones hide the truth. So if you care about how your strategy actually performs not just how it looks.
go smaller. Your backtesting will get sharper, and your confidence? Way more earned.
Nifty Weekly Wrap – 3rd Week of April ’25📉📈 Nifty Weekly Wrap – 3rd Week of April ’25 🔍
Bulls Charge Ahead – A 1,000+ Point Weekly Rally!
📌 Market Recap
What a week! Nifty 50 delivered a massive +1023 point gain – up 4.4% on a weekly closing basis – breaching the crucial 23,800 level and closing strong.
The rally was powered by a duo of positive triggers:
✅ Tariff relief
✅ Cooling inflation
This combination boosted sentiment and attracted strong institutional buying across the board.
📊 Technical Overview
Weekly & Monthly Candles: Bullish ✅
PCR Ratio: At 1.15, signaling a bullish tilt
RSI: Holding steady at 54 – trend and momentum both aligned
200 SMA on Daily Chart: At 24,050 – a crucial level to watch.
🔼 A breakout and close above this may trigger fresh buying and a possible shift in long-term sentiment.
📌 Bank Nifty Leadership
Bank Nifty almost hit its all-time high, clearly outperforming Nifty this week.
The rally wasn’t limited to just PSU or private players – both segments showed strong participation, giving more legs to this uptrend.
📍 Key Bank Nifty Level:
➡️ As long as 52,000 holds, the uptrend structure remains intact.
📉 Volatility Update – India VIX
India VIX cooled off by a sharp 24%, settling near 15 – further reinforcing the low fear + high confidence mood in the market.
📌 Market Sentiment Snapshot
Everything is aligning for the bulls:
✅ Sectoral rotation
✅ Robust earnings
✅ Institutional buying
✅ Easing macro concerns
🎯 Momentum is real, and as long as levels hold, dips might continue to be bought.
📌 Key Levels to Watch (Nifty)
🔼 Resistance Zones
▶️ 24,050 (200 SMA – critical level)
▶️ 24,190 ~ 24,225
▶️ 24,450
🔽 Support Zones
▶️ 23,820
▶️ 23,660 ~ 23,710
▶️ 23,400
▶️ 23,200
📋 Strategy Heading into Next Week
🧘 Stay with the trend, but don’t get complacent.
📌 Watch for a clean breakout above 24,050 with volume – it could set the tone for a fresh leg higher.
📌 On the downside, 23,660–23,820 is a key demand zone to track.
Let the structure develop – no need to predict every move. Follow price, stay flexible.
Short trade
📉 Sell-side Trade – SOL/USDT
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
⏰ Time: 6:00 AM – London Session AM
🔍 Observed Timeframe: 5min
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 139.216
Take Profit (TP): 137.727 (–1.07%)
Stop Loss (SL): 139.524 (+0.22%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.83
Focused on lower timeframe structure and supply zone rejection - internal liquidity sweep for a sell-side trade idea.
Stop level moved (0.50%)
Short trade
📉 Sell-side Trade – BTC/USD
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
⏰ Time: 4:00 AM (NY Time) – London Session AM
📊 Timeframes:
Structure: 4Hr
Entry: 15min
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 84700.0
Take Profit (TP): 84423.5 (–0.33%)
Stop Loss (SL): 84756.5 (+0.07%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.89
Reason: RSI divergence on the 5min TF and after confirmation of lower high rejection within a 4Hr bearish structure seemed indicative of a sell-side trade. Bearish FVG on the 4Hr TF or imbalance to fill is my assumption for target.
Gold - Betting Against The Bullrun WILL Rip Your Face Off!You'd think that due to all of the economic pain we are all feeling gold would plummet alongside the US dollar but nope.... It's the complete opposite.
We are in uncharted territories and the next psychological target is $3,500.
Will we see gold reach the highs before the 90-days tariff holds expire?
Long trade
🚀 Buyside Trade Breakdown – ETH/USD
📅 Date: Saturday, April 19, 2025
⏰ Time: 4:30 PM (NY Session AM — late NY session weekend)
🪙 Pair: ETH/USD
📈 Direction: Buy (Long)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 1613.56
Take Profit (TP): 1631.01 (+1.08%)
Stop Loss (SL): 1612.93 (–0.04%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 27.7
A 2min or sub-minute TF setup,
Executed at the retest of a refined LTF demand zone. The tight stop loss of 0.04% reflects high-conviction execution, as sell-side liquidity was flipped to the buy-side, confirming directional bias.
EURUSD - Sometimes It's Best To Let The Market Come To YouWhenever you feel yourself chasing price action, that's the sign and signature that your not that disciplined and you lack patience.
Especially in low resistance conditions that we are seeing with EURUSD, you do not want to make a mistake or you will get your face ripped off!
Gun to my head, I would want to see 1.16165 delivered and see the daily SIBI become a balanced price range but I am also cautious about the potential of a retracment back down into the 3-month SIBI....
GBPUSD - Tariffs Are Great For The United KingdomYou'd think that with all the tariffs being imposed on different countries, including the UK, the currency market would take a freefall....
So we all thought... Since the beginning of January 2025, Cable has been on a raging rally, gaining close to 10% if you were holding sterling in comparison to the US dollar.
With the 90 days hold on tariffs in full swing, will cables sentiment change in the near term?
Dow Jones (YMM) - Rough Around The EdgesDow Jones is great when studying the SMT divergences that occurs between YM. NQ and ES.
As a market i solely use to compare with NQ and ES, i would want to study how price delivers up to 41,147 and how NQ and ES follows suite.
If a NWOG forms, i will be interested to see what pair out of the three has a bigger gap and what PD array has been affected
Nasdaq (NQM) - Best Time To Buy Nasdaq?After a successful run from September 2022, making more than 110% up to the beginning stages of 2025, Nasdaq has successfully made holders over the past few years richer than those who decided to invest in a random meme coin and what we have been seeing over the past months is a decline close to 30% which is miniscule in the grand scheme of the bull trend.
Could the market continue to trade lower? Possibly but if you learn the skills necessary to hedge your portfolio by shorting the market, its a win win scenario!
S&P 500 (ESM) - Volatility Only Professionals Can TradeThe amount of volatility that has presented itself in ES has been astronomical! Usually when we see dollar selling off (presenting risk on conditions), ES, NQ and YM would usually pick up momentum and rally higher, attacking premium arrays and buyside liquidity pools but now we are seeing a change.
When will we see normal conditions in the market?
Dollar Index - Further Capitulation On the Horizon?It's like a gaping wound that refuses to heal, spewing blood everywhere!
Dollar index has been falling like a ton of bricks from the beginning of this year with little to no signs of retracing back into equilibrium and the question to ask yourself is.... will the 90-day ban restore dollar index above the 100 mark?
Or will be continue to see risk on scenarios?
ZB1! - Donald Trump Took A Huge Dump In The Bonds MarketIt was only two weeks ago when market participants were cheering on the bond market for it to rally higher.... until al hell broke loose!
120.18 was the initial draw on liquidity before the bond market capitulated into October 2023 BISI.
What's net on the horizon?